Linking Early Warning Systems with Rapid Mapping - Procedure for pre-tasking of satellites for disaster impact mapping

This is a technical document describing the step-by-step procedure for pre-tasking of satellites for disaster impact mapping in the frame of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). Pre-tasking is done following alerts for upcoming disasters issued by early warning systems (in this case by the European Flood Awareness System) which are either operated under CEMS or under other frameworks. Disaster impact mapping is performed under Rapid Mapping, the 24/7/365 on-demand service of CEMS. The procedure has been integrated into the standard operating procedures of the Emergency Response Coordination Center of DG ECHO.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

The benefit of continental flood early warning systems to reduce the impact of flood disasters

Flooding is a natural phenomenon, an intrinsic part of the natural cycle that serves important ecological functions. However, in highly anthropogenic-developed landscapes they cause serious consequences for human lives, societies in general, and their economy. Therefore comprehensive disaster risk reduction policies have been promoted in the last decade including actions on the development of early warning systems at local as well as regional scale. This report provides a brief global overview on the occurrences and damages resulting from riverine floods over the past decades. The first part of the report then summarises European policies put in place to deal with flooding in the different phases of the disaster management cycle addressing the prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery phase. This is followed by a description of the development of flood early warning capabilities at European scale, how such a system fits into the responsibility chain between national services and EU civil protection and what the potential financial benefit of flood early warning systems in Europe amounts to. The second part of the report addresses the gaps in flood early warning systems in Africa and presents a description of the African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS), which has been built in analogy to EFAS, but which is still in experimental stageJRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Current water resources in Europe and Africa - Matching water supply and water demand

Ensuring good quality water in sufficient quantities for all legitimate uses is a major policy aim of the European Commission, and the main aim of the Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water, which will be launched in 2012. The Blueprint is the EU policy response to emerging challenges in the field of water. It is within this policy framework that JRC carries out research on hydrological simulation modelling, aiming to provide scientific assessments of general available water resources and floods, droughts and water scarcity. The main aim of the work is to assess current and future water availability versus current and future water demands from different economic sectors. Before future challenges can be addressed, a thorough analysis of current water resources is needed. The scope of this study is an analysis of current water resources in Europe and Africa, and matching water supply and water demand from various sectors. Several attempts already have been made to assess European, African and global water resources. Recently, Haddeland et al. (2011) produced a multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance at 0.5o spatial resolution. This has been achieved within the Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA), developed in the context of the EU-funded WATCH project (https://gateway.ceh.ac.uk ). Within another EU-funded project GLOWASIS (Global Water Scarcity Information System), Utrecht University and Deltares develop a global water scarcity map also at 0.5o spatial resolution, to be finished Dec 2012 (http://glowasis.eu ). First results are published in Van Beek et al (2011). JRC is partner in this project to benchmark the global product with the higher resolution European and African assessments. A further study was conducted by Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2011), assessing global water scarcity for the world’s major river basins. Other available information on global water resources are available from: • FAO, Aquastat portal http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/globalmaps/index.stm • UNEP: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-availability-groundwater-and-river-flow • Cleaningwater: http://cleaningwater.se/whats-new/geographical-distribution • IWMI Institute: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/WAtlas/Default.aspx • World Resources Institute: http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?map_select=265&theme=4 • Monde diplomatique: http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/disponibiliteeau • GRID-Arendal (Africa): http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/africa/ • EEA (Europe): http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-water-availability-per-capita-by-country-2001 In general however, the analysis done in the products described above is done at national scales, at relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5o), and using water demand data from the year 2000 or before, because more recent data are not yet available. The scope of the study presented here, is to carry out an higher spatial resolution analysis for Europe (5 km ~ 0.05o) and Africa (0.1o), using a daily timescale for modelling, and using for Europe new JRC analysis of water uses for irrigation, livestock, industry and energy, and domestic purposes. The analysis is carried out using the JRC LISFLOOD hydrological simulation model, supported by several other available models (EPIC, LUMP).JRC.H-Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Ispra

EFAS upgrade for the extended model domain

This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

EFAS upgrade for the extended model domain

This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

The development of pan-African food forecasting and the exploration of satellite-based precipitation estimates

The main objective of this PhD is to contribute to the development of a pan-African flood forecasting system in order to enhance flood forecasting for the whole of Africa. In view of the dimension and complexity of this goal, this research focused on particular aspects of flood forecasting, considered of key importance to devise a technically-sound flood forecasting system that could potentially be implemented operationally to facilitate international civil protection services. Emphasize was on four focal areas of research 1) explore the current situation on flood forecasting and early warning in Africa, 2) investigate the feasibility of probabilistic, medium-ranged flood forecasting in Africa, 3) explore satellite-based precipitation estimates (SRFE) for hydrological modeling, and 4) test a pan-African flood forecasting system (AFFS). The methods used in this research varied, adjusted to the type of data available and the specific objectives of each study. For the review on the current state of flood forecasting in Africa, research published in scientific literature and on institutional websites were scouted, and supplemented by data collected from a questionnaire. For the second focal point, the methods of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) were tested on an equatorial, semi-arid river basin. This included the set-up and optimization of LISFLOOD for the target catchment, the calculation of hindcasts for two large historical flood events using various meteorological input data as well as a statistical evaluation using various skill scores fitted for probabilistic forecasting. The ability of SRFE to replicate hydrologically-relevant rainfall characteristics was assessed through ground truthing at three spatially aggregated levels using a range of standard statistical methods and visual inspection. The usefulness of SRFE for hydrological modelling, as well as the necessity of bias correction and SRFE-specific calibration, was assessed by forcing LISFLOOD with various SRFE over four test basins holding various climatic and geomorphologic characteristics. The outcome was compared against discharge measurements using a novel performance indicator. For the final study, LISFLOOD was set up, calibrated and validated for the whole of Africa. Ensemble hydrological predictions were reproduced for a whole year and flood signals were derived through the application of critical thresholds. The predictive capability was investigated by comparing the results against ground measurements and reports of various flood archives. Among the main outcome of this PhD a network of more than 50 African institutions were identified, which are currently working on flood management issues and expressed further need for medium-ranged flood forecasts and could hence be potential users of AFFS. Additionally, SRFE proved as valuable source for hydrological modeling, provided that the right SRFE is chosen considering the given climatic and geomorphologic conditions as well as the type of hydrometeorological application. Further, the methods developed for EFAS proved to be transferable to the African continent providing that the hydrological model is adjusted to fit different hydro-climatic conditions and meteorological measurements are replaced by SRFE. Lastly, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system as it detected around 70 % of reported flood events correctly

The development of pan-African food forecasting and the exploration of satellite-based precipitation estimates

The main objective of this PhD is to contribute to the development of a pan-African flood forecasting system in order to enhance flood forecasting for the whole of Africa. In view of the dimension and complexity of this goal, this research focused on particular aspects of flood forecasting, considered of key importance to devise a technically-sound flood forecasting system that could potentially be implemented operationally to facilitate international civil protection services. Emphasize was on four focal areas of research 1) explore the current situation on flood forecasting and early warning in Africa, 2) investigate the feasibility of probabilistic, medium-ranged flood forecasting in Africa, 3) explore satellite-based precipitation estimates (SRFE) for hydrological modeling, and 4) test a pan-African flood forecasting system (AFFS). The methods used in this research varied, adjusted to the type of data available and the specific objectives of each study. For the review on the current state of flood forecasting in Africa, research published in scientific literature and on institutional websites were scouted, and supplemented by data collected from a questionnaire. For the second focal point, the methods of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) were tested on an equatorial, semi-arid river basin. This included the set-up and optimization of LISFLOOD for the target catchment, the calculation of hindcasts for two large historical flood events using various meteorological input data as well as a statistical evaluation using various skill scores fitted for probabilistic forecasting. The ability of SRFE to replicate hydrologically-relevant rainfall characteristics was assessed through ground truthing at three spatially aggregated levels using a range of standard statistical methods and visual inspection. The usefulness of SRFE for hydrological modelling, as well as the necessity of bias correction and SRFE-specific calibration, was assessed by forcing LISFLOOD with various SRFE over four test basins holding various climatic and geomorphologic characteristics. The outcome was compared against discharge measurements using a novel performance indicator. For the final study, LISFLOOD was set up, calibrated and validated for the whole of Africa. Ensemble hydrological predictions were reproduced for a whole year and flood signals were derived through the application of critical thresholds. The predictive capability was investigated by comparing the results against ground measurements and reports of various flood archives. Among the main outcome of this PhD a network of more than 50 African institutions were identified, which are currently working on flood management issues and expressed further need for medium-ranged flood forecasts and could hence be potential users of AFFS. Additionally, SRFE proved as valuable source for hydrological modeling, provided that the right SRFE is chosen considering the given climatic and geomorphologic conditions as well as the type of hydrometeorological application. Further, the methods developed for EFAS proved to be transferable to the African continent providing that the hydrological model is adjusted to fit different hydro-climatic conditions and meteorological measurements are replaced by SRFE. Lastly, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system as it detected around 70 % of reported flood events correctly

European Flood Awareness System

The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (Copernicus EMS). It provides complementary, flood early warning information to its partners, the National/Regional Hydrological Services and the European Response and Coordination Centre (ERCC). EFAS holds a large-variety of regularly updated flood forecast information ranging from gridded hydro-meteorological variables, modelled soil moisture, runoff and snow data, to a wide-range of flood-related information such as probabilistic medium-range flood forecasts (including short-range flash floods), seasonal forecasts, impact assessments and early warnings. Real-time forecast information is available to EFAS partners only. Archived EFAS information is publicly available.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Global Flood Awareness System

The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), jointly developed by the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (Copernicus EMS). GloFAS provides added value, complementary flood forecast information which is updated daily. Forecast information includes gridded hydro-meteorological data such as accumulated forecasted precipitation, probabilistic predicted discharge, threshold exceedances and forecasted hydrographs at gauging locations. GloFAS data is publicly available (registration required).JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Current status on flood forecasting and early warning in Africa

An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was supplemented by data collected from a questionnaire sent to hydrological and meteorological institutions that were identified as potentially dealing with flood management issues in Africa. Results show that there are a significant number of institutional flood forecasting initiatives ongoing in Africa, but information regarding many of these initiatives is not easily accessible. Second, there is a clear need for improved flood forecasting and early warning in Africa. Third, the dissemination of existing flood forecasts and warnings to end-users and the public could be improved. It should be noted, however, that due to the difficulty in obtaining information regarding flood forecasting in Africa, the overview presented by the authors might be an underestimation of the current situation. Finally, the authors demonstrate the importance of developing a complementary flood forecasting and early warning system.JRC.DDG.H.7-Land management and natural hazard