Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input–output and computable general equilibrium models

A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though

Bias in the heritability of preference and its potential impact on the evolution of mate choice

The evolution of mate choice is a function of the heritability of preference. Estimation in the laboratory is typically made by presenting a female with a limited number of males. We show that such an approach produces a downwardly biased estimate, which we term the heritability of choice. When preference is treated as a threshold trait then less biased estimates are obtained particularly for preferences based on the relative value of the preferred trait. Because females in the wild typically survey on average less than five males we argue that the heritability of choice may be more meaningful than the heritability of preference. The restricted number of males surveyed can lead to a reduction in the phenotypic variance of the preferred trait in the group of males selected by the females if the phenotypic variance in preference is equal to or less than the phenotypic variance in the referred trait. If the phenotypic variance in preference exceeds that of the preferred trait then the opposite occurs. A second effect of the restricted number of males sampled is that females are likely to mate initially with males that are not the most preferred. The failure to find the most preferred male may account for the common observation of multiple matings and extra-pair copulations. We suggest that current explanations for polyandry need to take this failure into account