Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Worm Grunting, Fiddling, and Charming—Humans Unknowingly Mimic a Predator to Harvest Bait

Background: For generations many families in and around Florida’s Apalachicola National Forest have supported themselves by collecting the large endemic earthworms (Diplocardia mississippiensis). This is accomplished by vibrating a wooden stake driven into the soil, a practice called ‘‘worm grunting’’. In response to the vibrations, worms emerge to the surface where thousands can be gathered in a few hours. Why do these earthworms suddenly exit their burrows in response to vibrations, exposing themselves to predation? Principal Findings: Here it is shown that a population of eastern American moles (Scalopus aquaticus) inhabits the area where worms are collected and that earthworms have a pronounced escape response from moles consisting of rapidly exiting their burrows to flee across the soil surface. Recordings of vibrations generated by bait collectors and moles suggest that ‘‘worm grunters’ ’ unknowingly mimic digging moles. An alternative possibility, that worms interpret vibrations as rain and surface to avoid drowning is not supported. Conclusions: Previous investigations have revealed that both wood turtles and herring gulls vibrate the ground to elicit earthworm escapes, indicating that a range of predators may exploit the predator-prey relationship between earthworms and moles. In addition to revealing a novel escape response that may be widespread among soil fauna, the results sho

Lymphoid Tissue Damage in HIV-1 Infection Depletes Naïve T Cells and Limits T Cell Reconstitution after Antiretroviral Therapy

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) can suppress HIV-1 replication and normalize the chronic immune activation associated with infection, but restoration of naïve CD4+ T cell populations is slow and usually incomplete for reasons that have yet to be determined. We tested the hypothesis that damage to the lymphoid tissue (LT) fibroblastic reticular cell (FRC) network contributes to naïve T cell loss in HIV-1 infection by restricting access to critical factors required for T cell survival. We show that collagen deposition and progressive loss of the FRC network in LTs prior to treatment restrict both access to and a major source of the survival factor interleukin-7 (IL-7). As a consequence, apoptosis within naïve T cell populations increases significantly, resulting in progressive depletion of both naïve CD4+ and CD8+ T cell populations. We further show that the extent of loss of the FRC network and collagen deposition predict the extent of restoration of the naïve T cell population after 6 month of HAART, and that restoration of FRC networks correlates with the stage of disease at which the therapy is initiated. Because restoration of the FRC network and reconstitution of naïve T cell populations are only optimal when therapy is initiated in the early/acute stage of infection, our findings strongly suggest that HAART should be initiated as soon as possible. Moreover, our findings also point to the potential use of adjunctive anti-fibrotic therapies to avert or moderate the pathological consequences of LT fibrosis, thereby improving immune reconstitution

Long-Term Prognostic Impact of CT-Leaman Score in Patients with Non-Obstructive CAD: Results from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) Study

BACKGROUND: Non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) identified by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) demonstrated prognostic value. CT-adapted Leaman score (CT-LeSc) showed to improve the prognostic stratification. Aim of the study was to evaluate the capability of CT-LeSc to assess long-term prognosis of patients with non-obstructive (CAD). METHODS: From 17 centers, we enrolled 2402 patients without prior CAD history who underwent CCTA that showed non-obstructive CAD and provided complete information on plaque composition. Patients were divided into a group without CAD and a group with non-obstructive CAD (<50% stenosis). Segment-involvement score (SIS) and CT-LeSc were calculated. Outcomes were non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and the combined end-point of MI and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Patient mean age was 56±12years. At follow-up (mean 59.8±13.9months), 183 events occurred (53 MI, 99 all-cause deaths and 31 late revascularizations). CT-LeSc was the only multivariate predictor of MI (HRs 2.84 and 2.98 in two models with Framingham and risk factors, respectively) and of MI plus all-cause mortality (HR 2.48 and 1.94 in two models with Framingham and risk factors, respectively). This was confirmed by a net reclassification analysis confirming that the CT-LeSc was able to correctly reclassify a significant proportion of patients (cNRI 0.28 and 0.23 for MI and MI plus all-cause mortality, respectively) vs. baseline model, whereas SIS did not. CONCLUSION: CT-LeSc is an independent predictor of major acute cardiac events, improving prognostic stratification of patients with non-obstructive CAD.Dr. Min has served on themedical advisory boards Arineta; He is a consultant to Heart Flowand Cardiovascular Research Foundation; and has received research support from GE Healthcare.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Dynamic Landscape for Antibody Binding Modulates Antibody-Mediated Neutralization of West Nile Virus

Neutralizing antibodies are a significant component of the host's protective response against flavivirus infection. Neutralization of flaviviruses occurs when individual virions are engaged by antibodies with a stoichiometry that exceeds a required threshold. From this “multiple-hit” perspective, the neutralizing activity of antibodies is governed by the affinity with which it binds its epitope and the number of times this determinant is displayed on the surface of the virion. In this study, we investigated time-dependent changes in the fate of West Nile virus (WNV) decorated with antibody in solution. Experiments with the well-characterized neutralizing monoclonal antibody (MAb) E16 revealed a significant increase in neutralization activity over time that could not be explained by the kinetics of antibody binding, virion aggregation, or the action of complement. Additional kinetic experiments using the fusion-loop specific MAb E53, which has limited neutralizing activity because it recognizes a relatively inaccessible epitope on mature virions, identified a role of virus “breathing” in regulating neutralization activity. Remarkably, MAb E53 neutralized mature WNV in a time- and temperature-dependent manner. This phenomenon was confirmed in studies with a large panel of MAbs specific for epitopes in each domain of the WNV envelope protein, with sera from recipients of a live attenuated WNV vaccine, and in experiments with dengue virus. Given enough time, significant inhibition of infection was observed even for antibodies with very limited, or no neutralizing activity in standard neutralization assays. Together, our data suggests that the structural dynamics of flaviviruses impacts antibody-mediated neutralization via exposure of otherwise inaccessible epitopes, allowing for antibodies to dock on the virion with a stoichiometry sufficient for neutralization

Replication and Virus-Induced Transcriptome of HAdV-5 in Normal Host Cells versus Cancer Cells - Differences of Relevance for Adenoviral Oncolysis

Adenoviruses (Ads), especially HAdV-5, have been genetically equipped with tumor-restricted replication potential to enable applications in oncolytic cancer therapy. Such oncolytic adenoviruses have been well tolerated in cancer patients, but their anti-tumor efficacy needs to be enhanced. In this regard, it should be considered that cancer cells, dependent on their tissue of origin, can differ substantially from the normal host cells to which Ads are adapted by complex virus-host interactions. Consequently, viral replication efficiency, a key determinant of oncolytic activity, might be suboptimal in cancer cells. Therefore, we have analyzed both the replication kinetics of HAdV-5 and the virus-induced transcriptome in human bronchial epithelial cells (HBEC) in comparison to cancer cells. This is the first report on genome-wide expression profiling of Ads in their native host cells. We found that E1A expression and onset of viral genome replication are most rapid in HBEC and considerably delayed in melanoma cells. In squamous cell lung carcinoma cells, we observed intermediate HAdV-5 replication kinetics. Infectious particle production, viral spread and lytic activity of HAdV-5 were attenuated in melanoma cells versus HBEC. Expression profiling at the onset of viral genome replication revealed that HAdV-5 induced the strongest changes in the cellular transcriptome in HBEC, followed by lung cancer and melanoma cells. We identified prominent regulation of genes involved in cell cycle and DNA metabolism, replication and packaging in HBEC, which is in accord with the necessity to induce S phase for viral replication. Strikingly, in melanoma cells HAdV-5 triggered opposing regulation of said genes and, in contrast to lung cancer cells, no weak S phase induction was detected when using the E2F promoter as reporter. Our results provide a rationale for improving oncolytic adenoviruses either by adaptation of viral infection to target tumor cells or by modulating tumor cell functions to better support viral replication

Effects of the combination of camptothecin and doxorubicin or etoposide on rat glioma cells and camptothecin-resistant variants

From the rat C6 glioma cell line in culture, we selected camptothecin-resistant variants by growth in the presence of increasing amounts of this drug (C6CPT10, C6CPT50 and C6CPT100, growing respectively with 10, 50 and 100 ng ml–1camptothecin). The degree of resistance to camptothecin ranged between 15-fold (C6CPT10) and 30-fold (C6CPT50and C6CPT100). The C6CPT10cell line presented a collateral sensitivity to etoposide (3.6-fold), while the C6CPT50 and C6CPT100 cell lines were cross-resistant to etoposide (1.8-fold) The resistant lines were characterised by a two-fold reduced content and catalytic activity of topoisomerase I, and C6CPT50 and C6CPT100 presented a significant increase in topoisomerase IIα content and catalytic activity and a marked overexpression of P-glycoprotein. We explored the cytotoxicity of combinations of a topoisomerase I inhibitor (camptothecin) and a topoisomerase II inhibitor (doxorubicin or etoposide) at several molar ratios, allowing the evaluation of their synergistic or antagonistic effects on cell survival using the median effect principle. The simultaneous combination of camptothecin and doxorubicin or etoposide was additive or antagonistic in C6 cells, slightly synergistic in the C6CPT10 line and never more than additive in the C6CPT50 and C6CPT100 cell lines. The sequential combination of doxorubicin and camptothecin gave additivity in the order camptothecin → doxorubicin and antagonism in the order doxorubicin → camptothecin. Clinical protocols combining a topoisomerase I and a topoisomerase II inhibitor should be considered with caution because antagonistic effects have been observed with combinations of camptothecin and doxorubicin.© 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Interaction between gemcitabine and topotecan in human non-small-cell lung cancer cells: effects on cell survival, cell cycle and pharmacogenetic profile

The pyrimidine analogue gemcitabine is an established effective agent in the treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The present study investigates whether gemcitabine would be synergistic with the topoisomerase I inhibitor topotecan against the NSCLC A549 and Calu-6 cells. Cells were treated with gemcitabine and topotecan for 1 h and the type of drug interaction was assessed using the combination index (CI). Cell cycle alterations were analysed by flow cytometry, while apoptosis was examined by the occurrence of DNA internucleosomal fragmentation, nuclear condensation and caspase-3 activation. Moreover, the possible involvement of the PI3K-Akt signalling pathway was investigated by the measurement of Akt phosphorylation. Finally, quantitative, real-time PCR (QRT-PCR) was used to study modulation of the gemcitabine-activating enzyme deoxycytidine kinase (dCK) and the cellular target enzyme ribonucleotide reductase (RR). In results, it was found that simultaneous and sequential topotecan → gemcitabine treatments were synergistic, while the reverse sequence was antagonistic in both cell lines. DNA fragmentation, nuclear condensation and enhanced caspase-3 activity demonstrated that the drug combination markedly increased apoptosis in comparison with either single agent, while cell cycle analysis showed that topotecan increased cells in S phase. Furthermore, topotecan treatment significantly decreased the amount of the activated form of Akt, and enhanced the expression of dCK (+155.0 and +115.3% in A549 and Calu-6 cells, respectively), potentially facilitating gemcitabine activity. In conclusion, these results indicate that the combination of gemcitabine and topotecan displays schedule-dependent activity in vitro against NSCLC cells. The gemcitabine → topotecan sequence is antagonistic while drug synergism is obtained with the simultaneous and the sequential topotecan → gemcitabine combinations, which are associated with induction of decreased Akt phosphorylation and increased dCK expression

AV-65, a novel Wnt/β-catenin signal inhibitor, successfully suppresses progression of multiple myeloma in a mouse model

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a malignant neoplasm of plasma cells. Although new molecular targeting agents against MM have been developed based on the better understanding of the underlying pathogenesis, MM still remains an incurable disease. We previously demonstrated that β-catenin, a downstream effector in the Wnt pathway, is a potential target in MM using RNA interference in an in vivo experimental mouse model. In this study, we have screened a library of more than 100 000 small-molecule chemical compounds for novel Wnt/β-catenin signaling inhibitors using a high-throughput transcriptional screening technology. We identified AV-65, which diminished β-catenin protein levels and T-cell factor transcriptional activity. AV-65 then decreased c-myc, cyclin D1 and survivin expression, resulting in the inhibition of MM cell proliferation through the apoptotic pathway. AV-65 treatment prolonged the survival of MM-bearing mice. These findings indicate that this compound represents a novel and attractive therapeutic agent against MM. This study also illustrates the potential of high-throughput transcriptional screening to identify candidates for anticancer drug discovery