How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings?

Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly

Mood instability, mental illness and suicidal ideas : results from a household survey

Purpose: There is weak and inconsistent evidence that mood instability (MI) is associated with depression, post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicidality although the basis of this is unclear. Our objectives were first to test whether there is an association between depression and PTSD, and MI and secondly whether MI exerts an independent effect on suicidal thinking over and above that explained by common mental disorders. Methods: We used data from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007 (N = 7,131). Chi-square tests were used to examine associations between depression and PTSD, and MI, followed by regression modelling to examine associations between MI and depression, and with PTSD. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to assess the independent effect of MI on suicidal thinking, after adjustment for demographic factors and the effects of common mental disorder diagnoses. Results: There are high rates of MI in depression and PTSD and the presence of MI increases the odds of depression by 10.66 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 7.51–15.13] and PTSD by 8.69 (95 % CI 5.90–12.79), respectively, after adjusting for other factors. Mood instability independently explained suicidal thinking, multiplying the odds by nearly five (odds ratio 4.82; 95 % CI 3.39–6.85), and was individually by some way the most important single factor in explaining suicidal thoughts. Conclusions: MI is strongly associated with depression and PTSD. In people with common mental disorders MI is clinically significant as it acts as an additional factor exacerbating the risk of suicidal thinking. It is important to enquire about MI as part of clinical assessment and treatment studies are required

S021-04 OA. A large-scale analysis of immunoglobulin sequences derived from plasmablasts/plasma cells in acute HIV-1 infection subjects

Background In acute HIV-1 infection (AHI) there are infectioninduced polyclonal shifts in blood and bone marrow Bcell subsets from naïve to memory cells and plasmablasts/ plasma cells (PCs) coupled with decreased numbers of naive B cells. To study the initial antibody response to HIV, we have used recombinant technology to create a database of PC antibody sequences derived from 3 early stage AHI subjects

Multidimensional Profiles of Health Status: An Application of the Grade of Membership Model to the World Health Survey

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) conducted the World Health Survey (WHS) between 2002 and 2004 in 70 countries to provide cross-population comparable data on health, health-related outcomes and risk factors. The aim of this study was to apply Grade of Membership (GoM) modelling as a means to condense extensive health information from the WHS into a set of easily understandable health profiles and to assign the degree to which an individual belongs to each profile. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This paper described the application of the GoM models to summarize population health status using World Health Survey data. Grade of Membership analysis is a flexible, non-parametric, multivariate method, used to calculate health profiles from WHS self-reported health state and health conditions. The WHS dataset was divided into four country economic categories based on the World Bank economic groupings (high, upper-middle, lower-middle and low income economies) for separate GoM analysis. Three main health profiles were produced for each of the four areas: I. Robust; II. Intermediate; III. Frail; moreover population health, wealth and inequalities are defined for countries in each economic area as a means to put the health results into perspective. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses have provided a robust method to better understand health profiles and the components which can help to identify healthy and non-healthy individuals. The obtained profiles have described concrete levels of health and have clearly delineated characteristics of healthy and non-healthy respondents. The GoM results provided both a useable way of summarising complex individual health information and a selection of intermediate determinants which can be targeted for interventions to improve health. As populations' age, and with limited budgets for additional costs for health care and social services, applying the GoM methods may assist with identifying higher risk profiles for decision-making and resource allocations

Multidimensional Profiles of Health Status: An Application of the Grade of Membership Model to the World Health Survey

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) conducted the World Health Survey (WHS) between 2002 and 2004 in 70 countries to provide cross-population comparable data on health, health-related outcomes and risk factors. The aim of this study was to apply Grade of Membership (GoM) modelling as a means to condense extensive health information from the WHS into a set of easily understandable health profiles and to assign the degree to which an individual belongs to each profile. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This paper described the application of the GoM models to summarize population health status using World Health Survey data. Grade of Membership analysis is a flexible, non-parametric, multivariate method, used to calculate health profiles from WHS self-reported health state and health conditions. The WHS dataset was divided into four country economic categories based on the World Bank economic groupings (high, upper-middle, lower-middle and low income economies) for separate GoM analysis. Three main health profiles were produced for each of the four areas: I. Robust; II. Intermediate; III. Frail; moreover population health, wealth and inequalities are defined for countries in each economic area as a means to put the health results into perspective. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses have provided a robust method to better understand health profiles and the components which can help to identify healthy and non-healthy individuals. The obtained profiles have described concrete levels of health and have clearly delineated characteristics of healthy and non-healthy respondents. The GoM results provided both a useable way of summarising complex individual health information and a selection of intermediate determinants which can be targeted for interventions to improve health. As populations' age, and with limited budgets for additional costs for health care and social services, applying the GoM methods may assist with identifying higher risk profiles for decision-making and resource allocations

Financial considerations in the conduct of multi-centre randomised controlled trials: evidence from a qualitative study.

National Coordinating Centre for Research Methodology; Medical Research Council, UK Department of Health; Chief Scientist OfficeNot peer reviewedPublisher PD

Surface Localization of Glucosylceramide during Cryptococcus neoformans Infection Allows Targeting as a Potential Antifungal

Cryptococcus neoformans (Cn) is a significant human pathogen that, despite current treatments, continues to have a high morbidity rate especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The need for more tolerable and specific therapies has been clearly shown. In the search for novel drug targets, the gene for glucosylceramide synthase (GCS1) was deleted in Cn, resulting in a strain (Δgcs1) that does not produce glucosylceramide (GlcCer) and is avirulent in mouse models of infection. To understand the biology behind the connection between virulence and GlcCer, the production and localization of GlcCer must be characterized in conditions that are prohibitive to the growth of Δgcs1 (neutral pH and high CO2). These prohibitive conditions are physiologically similar to those found in the extracellular spaces of the lung during infection. Here, using immunofluorescence, we have shown that GlcCer localization to the cell surface is significantly increased during growth in these conditions and during infection. We further seek to exploit this localization by treatment with Cerezyme (Cz), a recombinant enzyme that metabolizes GlcCer, as a potential treatment for Cn. Cz treatment was found to reduce the amount of GlcCer in vitro, in cultures, and in Cn cells inhabiting the mouse lung. Treatment with Cz induced a membrane integrity defect in wild type Cn cells similar to Δgcs1. Cz treatment also reduced the in vitro growth of Cn in a dose and condition dependent manner. Finally, Cz treatment was shown to have a protective effect on survival in mice infected with Cn. Taken together, these studies have established the legitimacy of targeting the GlcCer and other related sphingolipid systems in the development of novel therapeutics

p21Waf1 expression is regulated by nuclear intermediate filament vimentin in neuroblastoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human neuroblastoma (NB) cell lines may present with either one of the so-called S-and N-subtypes. We have previously reported a strong correlation between protein expression levels of vimentin, an S-subtype marker, and the p21^Waf1cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor. We here investigated whether this correlation extend to the mRNA level in NB cell lines as well as in patients' tumors. We also further explored the relationship between expression of vimentin and p21, by asking whether vimentin could regulate p21 expression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Vimentin and p21 mRNA levels in NB cell lines as well as in patients' tumors (<it>n </it>= 77) were quantified using Q-PCR. Q-PCR data obtained from tumors of high risk NB patients (<it>n </it>= 40) were analyzed in relation with the overall survival using the Log-rank Kaplan-Meier estimation. siRNA-mediated depletion or overexpression of vimentin in highly or low expressing vimentin cell lines, respectively, followed by protein expression and promoter activation assays were used to assess the role of vimentin in modulating p21 expression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We extend the significant correlation between vimentin and p21 expression to the mRNA level in NB cell lines as well as in patients' tumors. Overall survival analysis from Q-PCR data obtained from tumors of high risk patients suggests that lower levels of p21 expression could be associated with a poorer outcome. Our data additionally indicate that the correlation observed between p21 and vimentin expression levels results from p21 transcriptional activity being regulated by vimentin. Indeed, downregulating vimentin resulted in a significant decrease in p21 mRNA and protein expression as well as in p21 promoter activity. Conversely, overexpressing vimentin triggered an increase in p21 promoter activity in cells with a nuclear expression of vimentin.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results suggest that p21 mRNA tumor expression level could represent a refined prognostic factor for high risk NB patients. Our data also show that vimentin regulates p21 transcription; this is the first demonstration of a gene regulating function for this type III-intermediate filament.</p

Effect of promoter architecture on the cell-to-cell variability in gene expression

According to recent experimental evidence, the architecture of a promoter, defined as the number, strength and regulatory role of the operators that control the promoter, plays a major role in determining the level of cell-to-cell variability in gene expression. These quantitative experiments call for a corresponding modeling effort that addresses the question of how changes in promoter architecture affect noise in gene expression in a systematic rather than case-by-case fashion. In this article, we make such a systematic investigation, based on a simple microscopic model of gene regulation that incorporates stochastic effects. In particular, we show how operator strength and operator multiplicity affect this variability. We examine different modes of transcription factor binding to complex promoters (cooperative, independent, simultaneous) and how each of these affects the level of variability in transcription product from cell-to-cell. We propose that direct comparison between in vivo single-cell experiments and theoretical predictions for the moments of the probability distribution of mRNA number per cell can discriminate between different kinetic models of gene regulation.Comment: 35 pages, 6 figures, Submitte