Guidelines for developing and reporting machine learning predictive models in biomedical research : a multidisciplinary view

BACKGROUND: As more and more researchers are turning to big data for new opportunities of biomedical discoveries, machine learning models, as the backbone of big data analysis, are mentioned more often in biomedical journals. However, owing to the inherent complexity of machine learning methods, they are prone to misuse. Because of the flexibility in specifying machine learning models, the results are often insufficiently reported in research articles, hindering reliable assessment of model validity and consistent interpretation of model outputs. OBJECTIVE: To attain a set of guidelines on the use of machine learning predictive models within clinical settings to make sure the models are correctly applied and sufficiently reported so that true discoveries can be distinguished from random coincidence. METHODS: A multidisciplinary panel of machine learning experts, clinicians, and traditional statisticians were interviewed, using an iterative process in accordance with the Delphi method. RESULTS: The process produced a set of guidelines that consists of (1) a list of reporting items to be included in a research article and (2) a set of practical sequential steps for developing predictive models. CONCLUSIONS: A set of guidelines was generated to enable correct application of machine learning models and consistent reporting of model specifications and results in biomedical research. We believe that such guidelines will accelerate the adoption of big data analysis, particularly with machine learning methods, in the biomedical research community

Effect of Visceral Disease Site on Outcomes in Patients With Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Treated With Enzalutamide in the PREVAIL Trial.

Background The Multinational Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Efficacy and Safety Study of Oral MDV3100 in Chemotherapy-Naive Patients With Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer Who Have Failed Androgen Deprivation Therapy (PREVAIL) trial was unique as it included patients with visceral disease. This analysis was designed to describe outcomes for the subgroup of men from PREVAIL with specific sites of visceral disease to help clinicians understand how these patients responded to enzalutamide prior to chemotherapy.Patients and methods Prespecified analyses examined the coprimary endpoints of radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and overall survival (OS) only. All other efficacy analyses were post hoc. The visceral subgroup was divided into liver or lung subsets. Patients with both liver and lung metastases were included in the liver subset.Results Of the 1717 patients in PREVAIL, 204 (12%) had visceral metastases at screening (liver only or liver/lung metastases, n = 74; lung only metastases, n = 130). In patients with liver metastases, enzalutamide was associated with an improvement in rPFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-0.90) but not OS (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.57-1.87). In patients with lung metastases only, the HR for rPFS (0.14; 95% CI, 0.06-0.36) and the HR for OS (0.59; 95% CI, 0.33-1.06) favored enzalutamide over placebo. Patients with liver metastases had worse outcomes than those with lung metastases, regardless of treatment. Enzalutamide was well tolerated in patients with visceral disease.Conclusions Enzalutamide is an active first-line treatment option for men with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic chemotherapy-naive metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer and visceral disease. Patients with lung-only disease fared better than patients with liver disease, regardless of treatment

The importance of waist circumference and body mass index in cross-sectional relationships with risk of cardiovascular disease in Vietnam

BackgroundWaist circumference (WC) is an indicator of intra-abdominal adipose tissue, high levels of which confer an increased risk of cardiometabolic disease. Population data on WC should be more informative than data on body mass index (BMI), which is a general indicator of body size. This study aimed to evaluate the importance of WC relative to BMI in cross-sectional relationships with blood pressure (BP), glucose, and total cholesterol (TC) in the adult population of Vietnam.MethodsThe data were collected in a population-based survey conducted during 2009-10 using the "WHO STEPwise approach to surveillance of risk factors for non-communicable disease" (STEPS) methodology. The survey participants (n = 14 706 aged 25 to 64 years) were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces representative of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. All measurements were performed in accordance with the STEPS protocols. All analyses were performed using complex survey methods.ResultsThe measurements of WC and BMI were highly correlated (men r = 0.80, women r = 0.77). For men, the strongest and predominant associations with BP, glucose, and TC were for WC or an index based on WC. For women, this was true for glucose but BMI was more important for BP and TC. WC or an index based on WC provided better discrimination than BMI of hypertension and elevated glucose, and of raised TC for men. Information on four new anthropometric indices did not improve model fit or subject discrimination.ConclusionFor BP/hypertension, glucose/elevated glucose, and TC/raised TC, WC was more informative than BMI for Vietnamese men, but both WC and BMI were important for Vietnamese women. Both WC and BMI need to be assessed for estimation of CVD risk in Vietnam

Novel Evidence of HBV Recombination in Family Cluster Infections in Western China

Two hepatitis B virus (HBV) C/D recombinants were isolated from western China. No direct evidence indicates that these new viruses arose as a result of recombination between genotype C and D or a result of convergence. In this study, we search for evidence of intra-individual recombination in the family cluster cases with co-circulation of genotype C, D and C/D recombinants. We studied 68 individuals from 15 families with HBV infections in 2006, identified individuals with mixed HBV genotype co-infections by restriction fragment length polymorphism and proceeded with cloning and DNA sequencing. Recombination signals were detected by RDP3 software and confirmed by split phylogenetic trees. Families with mixed HBV genotype co-infections were resampled in 2007. Three of 15 families had individuals with different HBV genotype co-infections in 2006. One individual (Y2) had a triple infection of HBV genotype C, D and C/D recombinant in 2006, but only genotype D in 2007. Further clonal analysis of this patient indicated that the C/D recombinant was not identical to previously isolated CD1 or CD2, but many novel recombinants with C2, D1 and CD1 were simultaneously found. All parental strains could recombine with each other to form new recombinant in this patient. This indicates that the detectable mixed infection and recombination have a limited time window. Also, as the recombinant nature of HBV precludes the possibility of a simple phylogenetic taxonomy, a new standard may be required for classifying HBV sequences

A Multicentre Molecular Analysis of Hepatitis B and Blood-Borne Virus Coinfections in Viet Nam

Hepatitis B (HBV) infection is endemic in Viet Nam, with up to 8.4 million individuals estimated to be chronically infected. We describe results of a large, multicentre seroepidemiological and molecular study of the prevalence of HBV infection and blood-borne viral coinfections in Viet Nam. Individuals with varying risk factors for infection (n = 8654) were recruited from five centres; Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Da Nang, Khanh Hoa and Can Tho. A mean prevalence rate of 10.7% was observed and levels of HBsAg were significantly higher in injecting drug users (IDUs) (17.4%, n = 174/1000) and dialysis patients (14.3%, n = 82/575) than in lower-risk groups (9.4%; p<0.001). Coinfection with HIV was seen in 28% of HBV-infected IDUs (n = 49/174) and 15.2% of commercial sex workers (CSWs; n = 15/99). HCV infection was present in 89.8% of the HBV-HIV coinfected IDUs (n = 44/49) and 40% of HBV-HIV coinfected CSWs (n = 16/40). Anti-HDV was detected in 10.7% (n = 34/318) of HBsAg positive individuals. Phylogenetic analysis of HBV S gene (n = 187) showed a predominance of genotype B4 (82.6%); genotypes C1 (14.6%), B2 (2.7%) and C5 (0.5%) were also identified. The precore mutation G1896A was identified in 35% of all specimens, and was more frequently observed in genotype B (41%) than genotype C (3%; p<0.0001). In the immunodominant ‘a’ region of the surface gene, point mutations were identified in 31% (n = 58/187) of sequences, and 2.2% (n = 4/187) and 5.3% (n = 10/187) specimens contained the major vaccine escape mutations G145A/R and P120L/Q/S/T, respectively. 368 HBsAg positive individuals were genotyped for the IL28B SNP rs12979860 and no significant association between the IL28B SNP and clearance of HBsAg, HBV viral load or HBeAg was observed. This study confirms the high prevalence of HBV infection in Viet Nam and also highlights the significant levels of blood-borne virus coinfections, which have important implications for hepatitis-related morbidity and development of effective management strategies

Modern quantum chemistry with [open]molcas

10.1063/5.0004835Journal of Chemical Physics15221214117