"If only I had taken the other road...": Regret, risk and reinforced learning in informed route-choice

This paper presents a study of the effect of regret on route choice behavior when both descriptional information and experiential feedback on choice outcomes are provided. The relevance of Regret Theory in travel behavior has been well demonstrated in non-repeated choice environments involving decisions on the basis of descriptional information. The relation between regret and reinforced learning through experiential feedbacks is less understood. Using data obtained from a simple route-choice experiment involving different levels of travel time variability, discrete-choice models accounting for regret aversion effects are estimated. The results suggest that regret aversion is more evident when descriptional information is provided ex-ante compared to a pure learning from experience condition. Yet, the source of regret is related more strongly to experiential feedbacks rather than to the descriptional information itself. Payoff variability is negatively associated with regret. Regret aversion is more observable in choice situations that reveal risk-seeking, and less in the case of risk-aversion. These results are important for predicting the possible behavioral impacts of emerging information and communication technologies and intelligent transportation systems on travelers' behavior. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

A Nutrition and Conditioning Intervention for Natural Bodybuilding Contest Preparation: Case Study.

Bodybuilding competitions are becoming increasingly popular. Competitors are judged on their aesthetic appearance and usually exhibit a high level of muscularity and symmetry and low levels of body fat. Commonly used techniques to improve physique during the preparation phase before competitions include dehydration, periods of prolonged fasting, severe caloric restriction, excessive cardiovascular exercise and inappropriate use of diuretics and anabolic steroids. In contrast, this case study documents a structured nutrition and conditioning intervention followed by a 21 year-old amateur bodybuilding competitor to improve body composition, resting and exercise fat oxidation, and muscular strength that does not involve use of any of the above mentioned methods. Over a 14-week period, the Athlete was provided with a scientifically designed nutrition and conditioning plan that encouraged him to (i) consume a variety of foods; (ii) not neglect any macronutrient groups; (iii) exercise regularly but not excessively and; (iv) incorporate rest days into his conditioning regime. This strategy resulted in a body mass loss of 11.7 kg’s, corresponding to a 6.7 kg reduction in fat mass and a 5.0 kg reduction in fat-free mass. Resting metabolic rate decreased from 1993 kcal/d to 1814 kcal/d, whereas resting fat oxidation increased from 0.04 g/min to 0.06 g/min. His capacity to oxidize fat during exercise increased more than two-fold from 0.24 g/min to 0.59 g/min, while there was a near 3-fold increase in the corresponding exercise intensity that elicited the maximal rate of fat oxidation; 21% V̇ O2max to 60% V̇ O2max. Hamstring concentric peak torque decreased (1.7 to 1.5 Nm/kg), whereas hamstring eccentric (2.0 Nm/kg to 2.9 Nm/kg), quadriceps concentric (3.4 Nm/kg to 3.7 Nm/kg) and quadriceps eccentric (4.9 Nm/kg to 5.7 Nm/kg) peak torque all increased. Psychological mood-state (BRUMS scale) was not negatively influenced by the intervention and all values relating to the Athlete’s mood-state remained below average over the course of study. This intervention shows that a structured and scientifically supported nutrition strategy can be implemented to improve parameters relevant to bodybuilding competition and importantly the health of competitors, therefore questioning the conventional practices of bodybuilding preparation

Cost-effectiveness of a central venous catheter care bundle

Background: A bundled approach to central venous catheter care is currently being promoted as an effective way of preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). Consumables used in the bundled approach are relatively inexpensive which may lead to the conclusion that the bundle is cost-effective. However, this fails to consider the nontrivial costs of the monitoring and education activities required to implement the bundle, or that alternative strategies are available to prevent CR-BSI. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a bundle to prevent CR-BSI in Australian intensive care patients. ---------- Methods and Findings: A Markov decision model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the bundle relative to remaining with current practice (a non-bundled approach to catheter care and uncoated catheters), or use of antimicrobial catheters. We assumed the bundle reduced relative risk of CR-BSI to 0.34. Given uncertainty about the cost of the bundle, threshold analyses were used to determine the maximum cost at which the bundle remained cost-effective relative to the other approaches to infection control. Sensitivity analyses explored how this threshold alters under different assumptions about the economic value placed on bed-days and health benefits gained by preventing infection. If clinicians are prepared to use antimicrobial catheters, the bundle is cost-effective if national 18-month implementation costs are below $1.1 million. If antimicrobial catheters are not an option the bundle must cost less than$4.3 million. If decision makers are only interested in obtaining cash-savings for the unit, and place no economic value on either the bed-days or the health benefits gained through preventing infection, these cost thresholds are reduced by two-thirds.---------- Conclusions: A catheter care bundle has the potential to be cost-effective in the Australian intensive care setting. Rather than anticipating cash-savings from this intervention, decision makers must be prepared to invest resources in infection control to see efficiency improvements

Relative Osteopenia after Treatment for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Osteoporosis in adult life is associated with a significant morbidity and may be predisposed to by osteopenia and failure to reach peak bone mass in childhood. Children treated for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) may be at risk of osteopenia as a result of previous therapy or as a consequence of the disease process itself. Dual energy x-ray absorptiometry measurements of bone mineral content (BMC) for the whole body and at the lumbar spine and hip were taken in 35 (14 male) long-term survivors of ALL and compared with results in 20 (10 male) survivors of other malignancies and 31 (17 male) healthy sibling controls. The measured BMC was expressed as a percentage of a predicted value derived from the control group and based on the variables that had influence upon it. BMC (%) was reduced at the spine in the ALL group compared with controls [92.4 (8.0)% versus 100.4 (9.7)%, respectively; p < 0.005] and at the hip compared with both other malignancies and controls [89.0 (11.5)% versus 96.1 (11.7)% and 100.4 (9.2)%, respectively; p < 0.0005]. Increasing length of time off therapy was associated with a significant increase in %BMC at both the spine and the hip. For the spine, this association was significantly different between the ALL group and other malignancies, suggesting that any gain in %BMC after therapy was slower in children treated for ALL. Both exercise capacity and levels of physical activity were correlated with %BMC at the hip (r = 0.44, p < 0.001 and r = 0.29, p < 0.01, respectively). Previous exposure to methotrexate, ifosfamide, and bleomycin was associated with a reduction in %BMC at the spine. Exposure to 6-mercaptopurine and cisplatin was associated with a reduction at the hip. In conclusion, children treated for ALL are osteopenic. The mechanism is probably multifactorial but is partially related to previous chemotherapy, limited exercise capacity, and relative physical inactivity