Quantifying gas emissions from the "Millennium Eruption" of Paektu volcano, Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea/China

Paektu volcano (Changbaishan) is a rhyolitic caldera that straddles the border between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and China. Its most recent large eruption was the Millennium Eruption (ME; 23 km$^{3}$ dense rock equivalent) circa 946 CE, which resulted in the release of copious magmatic volatiles (H$_{2}$O, CO$_{2}$, sulfur, and halogens). Accurate quantification of volatile yield and composition is critical in assessing volcanogenic climate impacts but is challenging, particularly for events before the satellite era. We use a geochemical technique to quantify volatile composition and upper bounds to yields for the ME by examining trends in incompatible trace and volatile element concentrations in crystal-hosted melt inclusions. We estimate that the ME could have emitted as much as 45 Tg of S to the atmosphere. This is greater than the quantity of S released by the 1815 eruption of Tambora, which contributed to the “year without a summer.” Our maximum gas yield estimates place the ME among the strongest emitters of climate-forcing gases in the Common Era. However, ice cores from Greenland record only a relatively weak sulfate signal attributed to the ME. We suggest that other factors came into play in minimizing the glaciochemical signature. This paradoxical case in which high S emissions do not result in a strong glacial sulfate signal may present a way forward in building more https://symplectic.admin.cam.ac.uk/objectedit.html?cid=1&oid=876954generalized models for interpreting which volcanic eruptions have produced large climate impacts.K.I. was supported by the NSF under award no. 1349486 and by AAAS. Fieldwork was supported by the Richard Lounsbery Foundation

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Latent Markov Random Fields and Social Networks

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general. The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting approximation.Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures, accepted in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics (http://www.amstat.org/publications/jcgs.cfm

Kondo screening in d-wave superconductors in a Zeeman field and implications for STM spectra of Zn-doped cuprates

We consider the screening of an impurity moment in a d-wave superconductor under the influence of a Zeeman magnetic field. Using the Numerical Renormalization Group technique, we investigate the resulting pseudogap Kondo problem, in particular the field-induced crossover behavior in the vicinity of the zero-field boundary quantum phase transition. The impurity spectral function and the resulting changes in the local host density of states are calculated, giving specific predictions for high-field STM measurements on impurity-doped cuprates.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figs, (v2) remark on c-axis field added, discussion extended, (v3) final version as publishe

Discovery of the Ultra-Bright Type II-L Supernova 2008es

We report the discovery by the Robotic Optical Transient Experiment (ROTSE-IIIb) telescope of SN 2008es, an overluminous supernova (SN) at z=0.205 with a peak visual magnitude of -22.2. We present multiwavelength follow-up observations with the Swift satellite and several ground-based optical telescopes. The ROTSE-IIIb observations constrain the time of explosion to be 23+/-1 rest-frame days before maximum. The linear decay of the optical light curve, and the combination of a symmetric, broad H\alpha emission line profile with broad P Cygni H\beta and Na I \lambda5892 profiles, are properties reminiscent of the bright Type II-L SNe 1979C and 1980K, although SN 2008es is greater than 10 times more luminous. The host galaxy is undetected in pre-supernova Sloan Digital Sky Survey images, and similar to Type II-L SN 2005ap (the most luminous SN ever observed), the host is most likely a dwarf galaxy with M_r > -17. Swift Ultraviolet/Optical Telescope observations in combination with Palomar photometry measure the SED of the SN from 200 to 800 nm to be a blackbody that cools from a temperature of 14,000 K at the time of the optical peak to 6400 K 65 days later. The inferred blackbody radius is in good agreement with the radius expected for the expansion speed measured from the broad lines (10,000 km/s). The bolometric luminosity at the optical peak is 2.8 x 10^44 erg/s, with a total energy radiated over the next 65 days of 5.6 x 10^50 erg. We favor a model in which the exceptional peak luminosity is a consequence of the core-collapse explosion of a progenitor star with a low-mass extended hydrogen envelope and a stellar wind with a density close to the upper limit on the mass-loss rate measured from the lack of an X-ray detection by the Swift X-Ray Telescope. (Abridged).Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 14 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, emulateapj, corrections from proofs adde

Fast fluorescence microscopy for imaging the dynamics of embryonic development

Live imaging has gained a pivotal role in developmental biology since it increasingly allows real-time observation of cell behavior in intact organisms. Microscopes that can capture the dynamics of ever-faster biological events, fluorescent markers optimal for in vivo imaging, and, finally, adapted reconstruction and analysis programs to complete data flow all contribute to this success. Focusing on temporal resolution, we discuss how fast imaging can be achieved with minimal prejudice to spatial resolution, photon count, or to reliably and automatically analyze images. In particular, we show how integrated approaches to imaging that combine bright fluorescent probes, fast microscopes, and custom post-processing techniques can address the kinetics of biological systems at multiple scales. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges and opportunities for further advances in this field

Thermal Conductivity of the Spin Peierls Compound CuGeO_3

The thermal conductivity of the Spin-Peierls (SP) compound CuGeO_3 was measured in magnetic fields up to 16 T. Above the SP transition, the heat transport due to spin excitations causes a peak at around 22 K, while below the transition the spin excitations rapidly diminish and the heat transport is dominated by phonons; however, the main scattering process of the phonons is with spin excitations, which demonstrates itself in an unusual peak in the thermal conductivity at about 5.5 K. This low-temperature peak is strongly suppressed with magnetic fields in excess of 12.5 T.Comment: 6 pages, including 2 postscript figure

Development and implementation of a COVID-19 near real time traffic light system in an acute hospital setting

Common causes of death in COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 include thromboembolic disease, cytokine storm and adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Our aim was to develop a system for early detection of disease pattern in the emergency department (ED) that would enhance opportunities for personalised accelerated care to prevent disease progression. A single Trust’s COVID-19 response control command was established, and a reporting team with bioinformaticians was deployed to develop a real-time traffic light system to support clinical and operational teams. An attempt was made to identify predictive elements for thromboembolism, cytokine storm and ARDS based on physiological measurements and blood tests, and to communicate to clinicians managing the patient, initially via single consultants. The input variables were age, sex, and first recorded blood pressure, respiratory rate, temperature, heart rate, indices of oxygenation and C-reactive protein. Early admissions were used to refine the predictors used in the traffic lights. Of 923 consecutive patients who tested COVID-19 positive, 592 (64%) flagged at risk for thromboembolism, 241/923 (26%) for cytokine storm and 361/923 (39%) for ARDS. Thromboembolism and cytokine storm flags were met in the ED for 342 (37.1%) patients. Of the 318 (34.5%) patients receiving thromboembolism flags, 49 (5.3% of all patients) were for suspected thromboembolism, 103 (11.1%) were high-risk and 166 (18.0%) were medium-risk. Of the 89 (9.6%) who received a cytokine storm flag from the ED, 18 (2.0% of all patients) were for suspected cytokine storm, 13 (1.4%) were high-risk and 58 (6.3%) were medium-risk. Males were more likely to receive a specific traffic light flag. In conclusion, ED predictors were used to identify high proportions of COVID-19 admissions at risk of clinical deterioration due to severity of disease, enabling accelerated care targeted to those more likely to benefit. Larger prospective studies are encouraged

Radiation Safety in the Treatment of Patients with Thyroid Diseases by Radioiodine 131I: Practice Recommendations of the American Thyroid Association

Background: Radiation safety is an essential component in the treatment of patients with thyroid diseases by 131I. The American Thyroid Association created a task force to develop recommendations that would inform medical professionals about attainment of radiation safety for patients, family members, and the public. The task force was constituted so as to obtain advice, experience, and methods from relevant medical specialties and disciplines. Methods: Reviews of Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations and International Commission on Radiological Protection recommendations formed the basic structure of recommendations. Members of the task force contributed both ideas and methods that are used at their respective institutions to aid groups responsible for treatments and that instruct patients and caregivers in the attainment of radiation safety. There are insufficient data on long-term outcomes to create evidence-based guidelines. Results: The information was used to compile delineations of radiation safety. Factors and situations that govern implementation of safety practices are cited and discussed. Examples of the development of tables to ascertain the number of hours or days (24-hour cycles) of radiation precaution appropriate for individual patients treated with 131I for hyperthyroidism and thyroid cancer have been provided. Reminders in the form of a checklist are presented to assist in assessing patients while taking into account individual circumstances that would bear on radiation safety. Information is presented to supplement the treating physician's advice to patients and caregivers on precautions to be adopted within and outside the home. Conclusion: Recommendations, complying with Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations and consistent with guidelines promulgated by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement (NCRP-155), can help physicians and patients maintain radiation safety after treatment with 131I of patients with thyroid diseases. Both treating physicians and patients must be informed if radiation safety, an integral part of therapy with 131I, is to be attained. Based on current regulations and understanding of radiation exposures, recommendations have been made to guide physicians and patients in safe practices after treatment with radioactive iodine.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90492/1/thy-2E2010-2E0403.pd

Numerical Renormalization Group Study of Kondo Effect in Unconventional Superconductors

Orbital degrees of freedom of a Cooper pair play an important role in the unconventional superconductivity. To elucidate the orbital effect in the Kondo problem, we investigated a single magnetic impurity coupled to Cooper pairs with a $p_x +i p_y$ ($d_{x^2-y^2}+id_{xy}$) symmetry using the numerical renormalization group method. It is found that the ground state is always a spin doublet. The analytical solution for the strong coupling limit explicitly shows that the orbital dynamics of the Cooper pair generates the spin 1/2 of the ground state.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, JPSJ.sty, to be published in J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. 70 (2001) No. 1