Integrating Econometric Models of Australia's Livestock Industries: Implications for Forecasting and Other Economic Analyses

The perceived value of integrating small partial- equilibrium structural models of individual livestock industries into a comprehensive single-sector model is to take advantage of the interrelationships that are usually expressed by cross elasticities on both the supply and demand sides of these industries. Model integration should provide a more realistic representation of the livestock industries and an improved mechanism for industry analyses. However, model integration could also lead to increased error in model simulation that could reduce the value of the larger model for those purposes. Using forecasting as an example application, this paper investigates how the increased endogenisation of cross-commodity relationships in alternative structural econometric models of the Australian livestock industries affects the simulation performance of the larger model. Forecast accuracy and encompassing tests were used to investigate the value of model integration by comparing the accuracy of the models' forecasts and by testing for differences in the information contained in those forecasts. The general result was that combining the models did not adversely affect the forecasts from the integrated model and the encompassing tests indicated that the forecasts of the integrated and single models contained different information. Because the forecasts of the integrated model were not impaired relative to the single model forecasts, model integration was considered to be useful for forecasting and other types of economic analysis in the livestock industries.Structural econometric models, Model integration, Forecasting, Economic analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Australian Sheep Industry CRC: Economic Evaluations of Scientific Research Programs

By the end of its seven-year term in 2007-08, the Australian Sheep Industry CRC (Sheep CRC) will have received total funds of about $90 million, that comprises Commonwealth and industry funding of$30 million, and in-kind contributions valued at $60 million. This level of public and private funding emphasises the need for the Sheep CRC to demonstrate that its research programs will generate sound economic returns to all stakeholders. This paper reports an evaluation of the potential economic value of the achievements of the Sheep CRC at the midpoint of its term of operations at which it has some completed research and a large volume of research in progress. The main question that has been addressed in this evaluation concerns the nature and likely magnitude of the potential benefits relative to the costs of their realisation. The economic methods and other procedures that were used to answer this question, the evaluation scenarios and the results obtained are described. Based on the defined with- and without-Sheep CRC evaluation scenarios, the ‘bottom-line’ result was that the Sheep CRC’s scientific research programs have the potential to deliver a total incremental benefit with a 20-year net present value (NPV) of$191.3 million, and a total benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 8.1:1 (both at a 5% real rate of discount), indicating that the Sheep CRC’s total research investment over all programs has the potential to return about $8 for every$1 of research investment funds.sheep research, economic evaluations, economic-surplus- benefit-cost analysis., Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q160,

Software Development for Laser Engineered Net Shaping

Laser Engineered Net Shaping, also known as LENSTM, is an advanced manufacturing technique used to fabricate near-net shaped, fully dense metal components directly from computer solid models without the use oftraditional machining processes. The LENSTM process uses a high powered laser to create a molten pool into which powdered metal is injected and solidified. Like many SFF techniques, LENSTM parts are made through a layer additive process. In the current system, for any given layer, the laser is held stationary, while the part and its associated substrate is moved, allowing for the each layer's geometry to be formed. Individual layers are generated by tracing out the desired border, followed by filling in the remaining volume. Recent research into LENSTM has highlighted the sensitivity ofthe processes to multiple software controllable parameters such as substrate travel velocity, border representation, and fill patterns. This research is aimed at determining optimal border outlines and fill patterns for LENSTM and at developing the associated software necessary for automating the creation ofthe desired motion control.Mechanical Engineerin

Ion-beam-enhanced adhesion in the electronic stopping region

The use of ion beams in the electronic stopping region to improve the adhesion of insulators to other materials is described. In particular, the bonding of Au films to Teflon, ferrite, and SiO2 was improved by bombarding them with He and Cl, respectively. Improvements in bonding were also observed for Au on glass, Au and Cu on sapphire, and Si3N4 on Si. The mechanism is apparently associated with sputtering and track forming processes occurring in the electronic stopping region. Some applications are discussed

Field-theory calculation of the electric dipole moment of the neutron and paramagnetic atoms

Electric dipole moments (edms) of bound states that arise from the constituents having edms are studied with field-theoretic techniques. The systems treated are the neutron and a set of paramagnetic atoms. In the latter case it is well known that the atomic edm differs greatly from the electron edm when the internal electric fields of the atom are taken into account. In the nonrelativistic limit these fields lead to a complete suppression, but for heavy atoms large enhancement factors are present. A general bound-state field theory approach applicable to both the neutron and paramagnetic atoms is set up. It is applied first to the neutron, treating the quarks as moving freely in a confining spherical well. It is shown that the effect of internal electric fields is small in this case. The atomic problem is then revisited using field-theory techniques in place of the usual Hamiltonian methods, and the atomic enhancement factor is shown to be consistent with previous calculations. Possible application of bound-state techniques to other sources of the neutron edm is discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figure

Contrasting the capabilities of building energy performance simulation programs

For the past 50 years, a wide variety of building energy simulation programs have been developed, enhanced and are in use throughout the building energy community. This paper is an overview of a report, which provides up-to-date comparison of the features and capabilities of twenty major building energy simulation programs. The comparison is based on information provided by the program developers in the following categories: general modeling features; zone loads; building envelope and daylighting and solar; infiltration, ventilation and multizone airflow; renewable energy systems; electrical systems and equipment; HVAC systems; HVAC equipment; environmental emissions; economic evaluation; climate data availability, results reporting; validation; and user interface, links to other programs, and availability

Sheep CRC Renewal Proposal: Economic Evaluation of the Proposed Scientific Themes

The Australian sheep industry and its associated research and development agencies have developed a proposal for the CRC for Sheep Industry Innovation. “Top-down” and “bottomup” procedures were used to assess the expected economic benefits from this proposal. Formal “with-CRC” and “without-CRC” scenarios were defined for each product and each research theme. Relevant costs were similarly defined. The requested investment by the Commonwealth and the Australian sheep industry in the CRC is assessed relative to a scenario where an alternative, lower cost research program into this industry is implemented. These extra resources have a discounted value of about $34 million over the 25-year period of this evaluation. These resources are sufficient to allow some new research components to be added to the portfolio, some existing components to produce better outcomes, and a more targeted approach to development and extension that speeds up and increases the adoption of the new technologies that are generated by the research program. The benefit from this extra investment and consequent research effort is estimated to be worth about$518 million in present value terms, which is far in excess of the marginal investment. Thus every $1 of these extra resources brought into the Australian sheep industry through funding the proposed CRC is expected to return around$15.30 to the industry in present value terms.wool, sheep meat, research and development, economic, evaluation, Australia, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q160,