Международная миграция как фактор социально-экономического развития России

Purpose of research. The article examines the human potential of the Russian Federation in the context of the established second wave of the demographic crisis. The article analyzes the state of the number, composition and structure of the population of the Russian Federation during the first (1992–2012) and second demographic crisis (2016 and up to the present), taking into account the factors of population reproduction (birth rate and mortality) and migration inflows to the country. Factors and causes of external migration with the CIS countries are identified, as they have been and remain the main donors for replenishing the population of the Russian Federation. On the basis of analytical indicators of dynamics and methods of statistical relationships, an assessment of external migration growth and its impact on the country's economy is carried out. Special attention is paid to measures taken at the state level to stabilize and improve migration problems.Materials and methods. The information base of the study is statistical data and analytical information on external migration flows, based on statistical surveys conducted in the country. The methodological basis of the research is represented by statistical methods of information analysis: comparative analysis, structural and dynamic analysis, analysis of the interrelationships of migration and economic indicators.Results. The article analyzes in detail the results of current events in the country during periods of demographic decline and population growth since 1992. Due to the demographic policy implemented in the country, as well as the peculiarities of the age and gender structure of the population, it is proved that the main component for population growth is still the migration inflow. Special attention is paid to external labor migration in recent years. The impact of migration growth on economic indicators (unemployment rate, real wages, index of physical volume of GDP) and the development of the economy as a whole are estimated. Also, on the scale of the State National Policy Strategy being implemented until 2025, state measures to stabilize and improve the situation in the field of migration policy are presented and analyzed.Conclusion. Due to the fact that migration policy is a defining component of demographic policy, which is currently one of the priorities of the state's development, it is advisable to regularly study external migration as one of the most important sources of replenishment of human capital and hence the development of the country's economy. Therefore, the government of the Russian Federation should pay special attention to measures to attract foreign highly qualified labor force in active working age; providing foreign students who have successfully completed their studies and defended their diplomas in Russian universities with the opportunity to find a job in our country in order to obtain Russian citizenship and create a family in Russia. As well as carrying out regular monitoring studies on adaptation of foreign citizens, taking into account regional peculiarities of development of economy of our country, because today in the conditions of demographic decline of the Russian population it is one of the main sources of economic development on the geopolitical level, as labor potential – a basis for national economic growth.Цель исследования. В статье проводится исследование человеческого потенциала Российской Федерации в условиях устоявшейся второй волны демографического кризиса. Анализируется состояние численности, состава и структуры населения РФ в периоды первого (1992–2012 гг.) и второго демографического кризиса (2016 год и по настоящее время) с учетом факторов воспроизводства населения (рождаемости и смертности) и миграционных притоков в страну. Выявляются факторы и причины внешней миграции со странами СНГ, так как они были и остаются основными донорами для пополнения состава населения РФ. На базе аналитических показателей динамики и методов статистических взаимосвязей приводится оценка внешнего миграционного прироста и его влияния на экономику страны. Особое внимание уделяется проводимым на государственном уровне мерам стабилизации и улучшения проблем миграции.Материалы и методы. Информационной базой исследования являются статистические данные и аналитическая информация о потоках внешней миграции, на основе проводимых в стране статистических обследований. Методологическую базу исследования представляют статистические методы анализа информации: сравнительный анализ, структурно-динамический анализ, анализ взаимосвязей миграционных и экономических показателей.Результаты. В статье детально разобраны результаты происходящих событий в стране в периоды демографической убыли и роста населения с 1992 года. Благодаря демографической политике, проводимой в стране, а также особенностям возрастно-половой структуры населения, доказывается, что главной компонентой для роста численности населения, по-прежнему остается миграционный приток. Особое внимание уделяется трудовой внешней миграции за последние годы. Оценивается влияние миграционного прироста на экономические показатели (уровень безработицы, реальную заработную плату, индекс физического объема ВВП) и развитие экономики в целом. Также в масштабах проводимой до 2025 года Стратегии государственной национальной политики, приводятся и анализируются государственные меры по стабилизации и улучшению ситуации в области миграционной политики.Заключение. В силу того, что миграционная политика является определяющей компонентой демографической политики, являющейся в настоящее время одной из приоритетных задач развития государства, целесообразно регулярное исследование внешней миграции, как одного из важнейших источников пополнения человеческого капитала, а значит и развития экономики страны. Поэтому особое внимание Правительству РФ необходимо уделять мерам по привлечению зарубежной высоко- квалифицированной рабочей силы в активном трудоспособном возрасте; предоставлению иностранным студентам, успешно закончивших обучение и защитивших дипломы в российских вузах возможности трудоустроиться на перспективную работу в нашей стране с целью получения российского гражданства, создания семьи в России. А так же проведения регулярных мониторинговых исследований в области адаптации иностранных граждан с учетом региональных особенностей развития экономики нашей страны, ведь на сегодняшний день в условиях демографической убыли российского населения это – один из основных источников развития экономики на геополитическом уровне, так как трудовой потенциал –основа для роста национальной экономики

ЗАНЯТОСТЬ ПЕНСИОНЕРОВ (СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ)

The study is concerned with the employment of retirement age persons in the Russian Federation. The economic crisis of the recent years has reduced the federal budget and the Russin Pension Fund revenues. This fact brings forward the issue of raising the retirement age, payment and indexation of pensions. Increasing the generally established retirement age leads to more payers to pension funds and less old-age pensioners. However, one should not expect a serious increase of the state budget since, firstly, part of old-age pensioners continue to work and, secondly, not all persons reaching the retirement age will continue their work because of the growing unemployment. The authors have analyzed the structure of pensioner employment by gender, pension types, length of service after being granted a retirement pension, economic activities and education. The dynamics of the average pension compared to the average wage and disposable incomes of the population are studied. The indices of substitution of pensions and the subsistence minimum value for wages are identified and analyzed.Объектом исследования научной статьи является занятость лиц пенсионного возраста в Российской Федерации. В условиях экономического кризиса последних лет сократились доходы федерального бюджета и поступления в Пенсионный фонд РФ. В связи с этим встал вопрос о повышении пенсионного возраста населения, выплате и индексации размера назначенных пенсий. Повышение общеустановленного возраста выхода на пенсию приводит к увеличению числа плательщиков пенсионных фондов и сокращению численности пенсионеров по старости. При этом не стоит рассчитывать на серьезное увеличение государственного бюджета, так как, во-первых, часть пенсионеров по старости продолжают работать, во-вторых, не все лица, достигнув пенсионного возраста, продолжат свою трудовую деятельность из-за роста безработицы. Авторами рассмотрены вопросы структуры занятости пенсионеров по полу, видам назначенных пенсий, стажу работы после назначения пенсии, видам экономической деятельности, уровню образования. Исследована динамика среднего размера назначенных пенсий в сравнении со средней заработной платой и располагаемыми доходами населения. Определены и проанализированы показатели замещения заработных плат пенсиями и величиной прожиточного минимума

International Migration as a Factor of Social and Economic Development of Russia

Purpose of research. The article examines the human potential of the Russian Federation in the context of the established second wave of the demographic crisis. The article analyzes the state of the number, composition and structure of the population of the Russian Federation during the first (1992–2012) and second demographic crisis (2016 and up to the present), taking into account the factors of population reproduction (birth rate and mortality) and migration inflows to the country. Factors and causes of external migration with the CIS countries are identified, as they have been and remain the main donors for replenishing the population of the Russian Federation. On the basis of analytical indicators of dynamics and methods of statistical relationships, an assessment of external migration growth and its impact on the country's economy is carried out. Special attention is paid to measures taken at the state level to stabilize and improve migration problems.Materials and methods. The information base of the study is statistical data and analytical information on external migration flows, based on statistical surveys conducted in the country. The methodological basis of the research is represented by statistical methods of information analysis: comparative analysis, structural and dynamic analysis, analysis of the interrelationships of migration and economic indicators.Results. The article analyzes in detail the results of current events in the country during periods of demographic decline and population growth since 1992. Due to the demographic policy implemented in the country, as well as the peculiarities of the age and gender structure of the population, it is proved that the main component for population growth is still the migration inflow. Special attention is paid to external labor migration in recent years. The impact of migration growth on economic indicators (unemployment rate, real wages, index of physical volume of GDP) and the development of the economy as a whole are estimated. Also, on the scale of the State National Policy Strategy being implemented until 2025, state measures to stabilize and improve the situation in the field of migration policy are presented and analyzed.Conclusion. Due to the fact that migration policy is a defining component of demographic policy, which is currently one of the priorities of the state's development, it is advisable to regularly study external migration as one of the most important sources of replenishment of human capital and hence the development of the country's economy. Therefore, the government of the Russian Federation should pay special attention to measures to attract foreign highly qualified labor force in active working age; providing foreign students who have successfully completed their studies and defended their diplomas in Russian universities with the opportunity to find a job in our country in order to obtain Russian citizenship and create a family in Russia. As well as carrying out regular monitoring studies on adaptation of foreign citizens, taking into account regional peculiarities of development of economy of our country, because today in the conditions of demographic decline of the Russian population it is one of the main sources of economic development on the geopolitical level, as labor potential – a basis for national economic growth

EMPLOYMENT OF PENSIONERS (STATISTICAL ANALYSIS)

The study is concerned with the employment of retirement age persons in the Russian Federation. The economic crisis of the recent years has reduced the federal budget and the Russin Pension Fund revenues. This fact brings forward the issue of raising the retirement age, payment and indexation of pensions. Increasing the generally established retirement age leads to more payers to pension funds and less old-age pensioners. However, one should not expect a serious increase of the state budget since, firstly, part of old-age pensioners continue to work and, secondly, not all persons reaching the retirement age will continue their work because of the growing unemployment. The authors have analyzed the structure of pensioner employment by gender, pension types, length of service after being granted a retirement pension, economic activities and education. The dynamics of the average pension compared to the average wage and disposable incomes of the population are studied. The indices of substitution of pensions and the subsistence minimum value for wages are identified and analyzed