Shrinking binary and planetary orbits by Kozai cycles with tidal friction

At least two arguments suggest that the orbits of a large fraction of binary stars and extrasolar planets shrank by 1-2 orders of magnitude after formation: (i) the physical radius of a star shrinks by a large factor from birth to the main sequence, yet many main-sequence stars have companions orbiting only a few stellar radii away, and (ii) in current theories of planet formation, the region within ~0.1 AU of a protostar is too hot and rarefied for a Jupiter-mass planet to form, yet many "hot Jupiters" are observed at such distances. We investigate orbital shrinkage by the combined effects of secular perturbations from a distant companion star (Kozai oscillations) and tidal friction. We integrate the relevant equations of motion to predict the distribution of orbital elements produced by this process. Binary stars with orbital periods of 0.1 to 10 days, with a median of ~2 d, are produced from binaries with much longer periods (10 d to 10^5 d), consistent with observations indicating that most or all short-period binaries have distant companions (tertiaries). We also make two new testable predictions: (1) For periods between 3 and 10 d, the distribution of the mutual inclination between the inner binary and the tertiary orbit should peak strongly near 40 deg and 140 deg. (2) Extrasolar planets whose host stars have a distant binary companion may also undergo this process, in which case the orbit of the resulting hot Jupiter will typically be misaligned with the equator of its host star.Comment: Submitted to ApJ; 18 pages, 10 figure

Observability of the General Relativistic Precession of Periastra in Exoplanets

The general relativistic precession rate of periastra in close-in exoplanets can be orders of magnitude larger than the magnitude of the same effect for Mercury. The realization that some of the close-in exoplanets have significant eccentricities raises the possibility that this precession might be detectable. We explore in this work the observability of the periastra precession using radial velocity and transit light curve observations. Our analysis is independent of the source of precession, which can also have significant contributions due to additional planets and tidal deformations. We find that precession of the periastra of the magnitude expected from general relativity can be detectable in timescales of <~ 10 years with current observational capabilities by measuring the change in the primary transit duration or in the time difference between primary and secondary transits. Radial velocity curves alone would be able to detect this precession for super-massive, close-in exoplanets orbiting inactive stars if they have ~100 datapoints at each of two epochs separated by ~20 years. We show that the contribution to the precession by tidal deformations may dominate the total precession in cases where the relativistic precession is detectable. Studies of transit durations with Kepler might need to take into account effects arising from the general relativistic and tidal induced precession of periastra for systems containing close-in, eccentric exoplanets. Such studies may be able to detect additional planets with masses comparable to that of Earth by detecting secular variations in the transit duration induced by the changing longitude of periastron.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Investigating and dealing with publication bias and other reporting biases in meta-analyses:a review

A P value, or the magnitude or direction of results can influence decisions about whether, when, and how research findings are disseminated. Regardless of whether an entire study or a particular study result is unavailable because investigators considered the results to be unfavourable, bias in a meta-analysis may occur when available results differ systematically from missing results. In this paper, we summarize the empirical evidence for various reporting biases that lead to study results being unavailable for inclusion in systematic reviews, with a focus on health research. These biases include publication bias and selective nonreporting bias. We describe processes that systematic reviewers can use to minimize the risk of bias due to missing results in meta-analyses of health research, such as comprehensive searches and prospective approaches to meta-analysis. We also outline methods that have been designed for assessing risk of bias due to missing results in meta-analyses of health research, including using tools to assess selective nonreporting of results, ascertaining qualitative signals that suggest not all studies were identified, and generating funnel plots to identify small-study effects, one cause of which is reporting bias. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Empirical evidence of study design biases in randomized trials:Systematic review of meta-epidemiological studies

To synthesise evidence on the average bias and heterogeneity associated with reported methodological features of randomized trials.Systematic review of meta-epidemiological studies.We retrieved eligible studies included in a recent AHRQ-EPC review on this topic (latest search September 2012), and searched Ovid MEDLINE and Ovid EMBASE for studies indexed from Jan 2012-May 2015. Data were extracted by one author and verified by another. We combined estimates of average bias (e.g. ratio of odds ratios (ROR) or difference in standardised mean differences (dSMD)) in meta-analyses using the random-effects model. Analyses were stratified by type of outcome ("mortality" versus "other objective" versus "subjective"). Direction of effect was standardised so that ROR < 1 and dSMD < 0 denotes a larger intervention effect estimate in trials with an inadequate or unclear (versus adequate) characteristic.We included 24 studies. The available evidence suggests that intervention effect estimates may be exaggerated in trials with inadequate/unclear (versus adequate) sequence generation (ROR 0.93, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99; 7 studies) and allocation concealment (ROR 0.90, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.97; 7 studies). For these characteristics, the average bias appeared to be larger in trials of subjective outcomes compared with other objective outcomes. Also, intervention effects for subjective outcomes appear to be exaggerated in trials with lack of/unclear blinding of participants (versus blinding) (dSMD -0.37, 95% CI -0.77 to 0.04; 2 studies), lack of/unclear blinding of outcome assessors (ROR 0.64, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.96; 1 study) and lack of/unclear double blinding (ROR 0.77, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.93; 1 study). The influence of other characteristics (e.g. unblinded trial personnel, attrition) is unclear.Certain characteristics of randomized trials may exaggerate intervention effect estimates. The average bias appears to be greatest in trials of subjective outcomes. More research on several characteristics, particularly attrition and selective reporting, is needed

On a new observable for measuring the Lense-Thirring effect with Satellite Laser Ranging

In this paper we present a rather extensive error budget for the difference of the perigees of a pair of supplementary SLR satellites aimed to the detection of the Lense-Thirring effect.Comment: LaTex2e, 14 pages, 1 table, no figures. Some changes and additions to the abstract, Introduction and Conclusions. References updated, typos corrected. Equation corrected. To appear in General Relativity and Gravitatio

Simulation of Positronium: Toward More Realistic Models of Void Spaces in Materials

An exact treatment of the positron and electron in a two-chain, Path Integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulation is used to calculate both self-annihilation and pickoff rates at finite temperature. It has already been demonstrated that this technique can reproduce and extend results of simple theories of positrons and positronium (Ps) in spherical voids. Here, we include the effect of the linear dielectric response of a homogeneous material on the annihilation rate of positrons and Ps. In addition, we find lifetimes and structural information for Ps in cylindrical channels, both with and without adsorbed fluid atoms

Impact of the Siena College Tech Valley Scholars Program on Student Outcomes

The experimental group for this study included 38 students who entered the Tech Valley Scholars (TVS) program over the course of three academic years, from 2009-10 through 2011-12. Two groups of controls were used: a randomly selected sample of STEM students who matriculated in the same time frame; and a matched sample. The TVS students and controls were compared on two primary outcome variables: graduation (or retention to senior year), and final cumulative GPA. The major findings of this study are that (1) the TVS students had better outcomes than both the randomly selected comparison group and the matched control group, (2) unmet financial need is an important risk factor for non-retention, (3) students with moderately high unmet need can be academically successful if retained, and (4) the TVS program is having a positive impact on at-risk students. Recommendations for effective and efficient allocation of scholarship funds are given and future statistical studies are recommended

An exploratory study looking at the relationship marketing techniques used in the music festival industry

There are current issues and trends in the music festival market, which may affect the success of an event, and market saturation is at the forefront of these issues. Previous literature, maintaining the need for a marketing approach to festivals, identifi es the need for maintaining strong stakeholder relationships in order to succeed in a business environment; attention has been focused to the theory of relationship marketing (RM) because of the recognition that this practice is complementary to the marketing of festivals. The very nature of the music festival as an annual, usually, 4-day event means that effective marketing is needed to keep connections with the consumer throughout the year. This article focuses on the RM techniques utilised within the music festival industry from the viewpoint of the festival organiser in an attempt to establish how festival organisations value and monitor organisational relationships. This article explores the extent to which these relationships are valued and managed; furthermore, the variations between these intricate relationships are considered by focusing on those held with the organisation ’ s consumers and sponsors, the results of which have provided the ability to establish the importance and relevance of RM to the industry and further identify the marketing communication methods employed to establish and maintain such relationships. In-depth, convergent interviews have been conducted with a segment of music festival organisers from a range of events. The results have been integrated with the study of current literature to best exemplify these issues. It has been established that RM has a strong role in today ’ s commercial and independent music festival industry; technological advances are enabling the organiser to support online relationships further and increase consumer loyalty. There is a need to expand the research further because of the complexity of organisational relationships and the varying categories of festivals