Modeling the light curves of ultraluminous X-ray sources as precession

We present a freely available xspec model for the modulations seen in the long-term light curves of multiple ultraluminous X-ray sources (ULXs). By incorporating the physics of multiple electron scatterings (ray traced with a Monte-Carlo routine), we go beyond analytical predictions and show that the geometrical beaming of radiation in the conical outflow can be more than a factor of 100 for opening angles smaller than $10^\circ$. We apply our new model to the long-term, well sampled Swift light curve of the recently confirmed ULX pulsar NGC 5907 X-1 with an established period of 78 days. Our results suggest that geometrical beaming together with a slight precession of the conical wind can describe the light curve with a consistent set of parameters for the wind. The small opening angle of roughly $10\mathrm{-}13^\circ$ implies a highly super-critical flow and boosting factors at the order of $\mathcal{B}=60\mathrm{-}90$ that would yield a fairly low surface magnetic field strength of $2\times 10^{10}\,$Gauss.Comment: accepted by MNRAS for publication (7 pages, 6 figures

Insulation for cryogenic tanks has reduced thickness and weight

Dual seal insulation, consisting of an inner layer of sealed-cell Mylar honeycomb core and an outer helium purge channel of fiber glass reinforced phenolic honeycomb core, is used as a thin, lightweight insulation for external surfaces of cryogenic-propellant tanks

A unified approach to linking experimental, statistical and computational analysis of spike train data

A fundamental issue in neuroscience is how to identify the multiple biophysical mechanisms through which neurons generate observed patterns of spiking activity. In previous work, we proposed a method for linking observed patterns of spiking activity to specific biophysical mechanisms based on a state space modeling framework and a sequential Monte Carlo, or particle filter, estimation algorithm. We have shown, in simulation, that this approach is able to identify a space of simple biophysical models that were consistent with observed spiking data (and included the model that generated the data), but have yet to demonstrate the application of the method to identify realistic currents from real spike train data. Here, we apply the particle filter to spiking data recorded from rat layer V cortical neurons, and correctly identify the dynamics of an slow, intrinsic current. The underlying intrinsic current is successfully identified in four distinct neurons, even though the cells exhibit two distinct classes of spiking activity: regular spiking and bursting. This approach – linking statistical, computational, and experimental neuroscience – provides an effective technique to constrain detailed biophysical models to specific mechanisms consistent with observed spike train data.Published versio

Are Ballot Initiative Outcomes Influenced by the Campaigns of Independent Groups? A Precinct-Randomized Field Experiment

Ballot initiatives are consequential and common, with total spending on initiative campaigns in the US rivaling that of Presidential campaigns. Observational studies using regression approaches on observational data have alternately found that initiative campaign spending cannot affect initiative outcomes, can increase the number of votes rejecting (but not approving) initiatives, or can affect outcomes in either direction. We report the first well-powered precinct randomized field experiment to evaluate an initiative advocacy campaign. We find that campaigns can influence both rejection and approval of initiatives by changing how citizens vote, as opposed to by influencing turnout or ballot completion. Our experiment (involving around 18% of Oregon households in 2008) studied a statewide mail program conducted by a Political Action Committee. Results further suggest that two initiatives would have passed if not for the advocacy campaign to reject them. We discuss implications for theories about direct democracy, campaign finance, and campaign effects

Hysterectomy, endometrial ablation, and levonorgestrel releasing intrauterine system (Mirena) for treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding : cost effectiveness analysis

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The evaluation of Education Maintenance Allowance Pilots: three years' evidence: a quantitative evaluation

This is the third report of the longitudinal quantitative evaluation of Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA) pilots and the first since the government announced that EMA is to be rolled out nationally from 2004. The evaluation was commissioned in 1999, by the Department for Education and Skills (DfES) from a consortium of research organisations, led by the Centre for Research in Social Policy (CRSP) and including the National Centre for Social Research, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the National Institute for Careers Education and Counselling (NICEC). The statistical evaluation design is a longitudinal cohort study involving large random sample surveys of young people (and their parents) in 10 EMA pilot areas and eleven control areas. Two cohorts of young people were selected from Child Benefit records. The first cohort of young people left compulsory schooling in the summer of 1999 and they, and their parents, were interviewed between October 1999 and April 2000 (Year 12 interview). A second interview was carried out with these young people between October 2000 and April 2001 (Year 13 interview). The second cohort left compulsory education the following summer of 2000 and young people, and their parents, were first interviewed between October 2000 and April 2001. The report uses both propensity score matching (PSM) and descriptive techniques, each of which brings their own particular strengths to the analysis

Einstein Gravity on a Brane in 5D Non-compact Flat Spacetime -DGP model revisited-

We revisit the 5D gravity model by Dvali, Gabadadze, and Porrati (DGP). Within their framework it was shown that even in 5D non-compact Minkowski space $(x^\mu,z)$, the Newtonian gravity can emerge on a brane at short distances by introducing a brane-localized 4D Einstein-Hilbert term $\delta(z)M_4^2\sqrt{|\bar{g}_4|}\bar{R}_4$ in the action. Based on this idea, we construct simple setups in which graviton standing waves can arise, and we introduce brane-localized $z$ derivative terms as a correction to $\delta(z)M_4^2\sqrt{|\bar{g}_4|}\bar{R}_4$. We show that the gravity potential of brane matter becomes $-\frac{1}{r}$ at {\it long} distances, because the brane-localized $z$ derivative terms allow only a smooth graviton wave function near the brane. Since the bulk gravity coupling may be arbitrarily small, strongly interacting modes from the 5D graviton do not appear. We note that the brane metric utilized to construct $\delta(z)M_4^2\sqrt{|\bar{g}_4|}\bar{R}_4$ can be relatively different from the bulk metric by a conformal factor, and show that the graviton tensor structure that the 4D Einstein gravity predicts are reproduced in DGP type models.Comment: 1+12 pages, no figure, to appear in JHE

Percolation of satisfiability in finite dimensions

The satisfiability and optimization of finite-dimensional Boolean formulas are studied using percolation theory, rare region arguments, and boundary effects. In contrast with mean-field results, there is no satisfiability transition, though there is a logical connectivity transition. In part of the disconnected phase, rare regions lead to a divergent running time for optimization algorithms. The thermodynamic ground state for the NP-hard two-dimensional maximum-satisfiability problem is typically unique. These results have implications for the computational study of disordered materials.Comment: 4 pages, 4 fig