Multiple Transient Signals in Human Visual Cortex Associated with an Elementary Decision

The cerebral cortex continuously undergoes changes in its state, which are manifested in transient modulations of the cortical power spectrum. Cortical state changes also occur at full wakefulness and during rapid cognitive acts, such as perceptual decisions. Previous studies found a global modulation of beta-band (12–30 Hz) activity in human and monkey visual cortex during an elementary visual decision: reporting the appearance or disappearance of salient visual targets surrounded by a distractor. The previous studies disentangled neither the motor action associated with behavioral report nor other secondary processes, such as arousal, from perceptual decision processing per se. Here, we used magnetoencephalography in humans to pinpoint the factors underlying the beta-band modulation. We found that disappearances of a salient target were associated with beta-band suppression, and target reappearances with beta-band enhancement. This was true for both overt behavioral reports (immediate button presses) and silent counting of the perceptual events. This finding indicates that the beta-band modulation was unrelated to the execution of the motor act associated with a behavioral report of the perceptual decision. Further, changes in pupil-linked arousal, fixational eye movements, or gamma-band responses were not necessary for the beta-band modulation. Together, our results suggest that the beta-band modulation was a top-down signal associated with the process of converting graded perceptual signals into a categorical format underlying flexible behavior. This signal may have been fed back from brain regions involved in decision processing to visual cortex, thus enforcing a “decision-consistent” cortical state

Circuit mechanisms for the chemical modulation of cortex-wide network interactions and behavioral variability

Influential theories postulate distinct roles of catecholamines and acetylcholine in cognition and behavior. However, previous physiological work reported similar effects of these neuromodulators on the response properties (specifically, the gain) of individual cortical neurons. Here, we show a double dissociation between the effects of catecholamines and acetylcholine at the level of large-scale interactions between cortical areas in humans. A pharmacological boost of catecholamine levels increased cortex-wide interactions during a visual task, but not rest. An acetylcholine boost decreased interactions during rest, but not task. Cortical circuit modeling explained this dissociation by differential changes in two circuit properties: the local excitation-inhibition balance (more strongly increased by catecholamines) and intracortical transmission (more strongly reduced by acetylcholine). The inferred catecholaminergic mechanism also predicted noisier decision-making, which we confirmed for both perceptual and value-based choice behavior. Our work highlights specific circuit mechanisms for shaping cortical network interactions and behavioral variability by key neuromodulatory systems

How surprise and uncertainty alter brain state and decisions

Our natural environment can be characterized as a complex combination of statistical regularities and change. Nonetheless, humans and other species are generally successful decision makers. To achieve this, we need to be able to transform prior experience into expectations to guide our actions, while at the same time judge the validity of these history-based expectations in the current environment. This dissertation reports a combination of decision-making tasks and methods to gain insight into the central question: how do surprise and uncertainty alter brain state and decisions? The degree to which our expectations should shape our decisions depends on the level of uncertainty we have about them. Surprise serves as a warning signal that the expectations might not be valid.Uncertainty about choice outcome makes decisions more variable through upregulation of noise in the transformation of history-based expectations into the current and subsequent choices. Pharmacological upregulation of catecholamines caused the same effect, suggesting that uncertainty affects decision-making by activation of neuromodulatory brainstem nuclei. Surprise, caused by either temporally surprizing stimulus changes or unexpected outcomes of foraging choices, caused transient neurophysiological modulations, which likely reflect the monitoring process that updates expectations by the feedback from the environment.This dissertation contributes to the understanding of decision-making in real-life environments. Expectations are formed and updated based on feedback from the environment. Expectations affect decisions depending on the level of uncertainty we have about the environment. Uncertainty makes decisions more random, and thereby provides a mechanism to be flexible to changes in the environment

Multiple transient signals in human visual cortex associated with an elementary decision

The cerebral cortex continuously undergoes changes in its state, which are manifested in transient modulations of the cortical power spectrum. Cortical state changes also occur at full wakefulness and during rapid cognitive acts, such as perceptual decisions. Previous studies found a global modulation of beta-band (12–30 Hz) activity in human and monkey visual cortex during an elementary visual decision: reporting the appearance or disappearance of salient visual targets surrounded by a distractor. The previous studies disentangled neither the motor action associated with behavioral report nor other secondary processes, such as arousal, from perceptual decision processing per se. Here, we used magnetoencephalography in humans to pinpoint the factors underlying the beta-band modulation. We found that disappearances of a salient target were associated with beta-band suppression, and target reappearances with beta-band enhancement. This was true for both overt behavioral reports (immediate button presses) and silent counting of the perceptual events. This finding indicates that the beta-band modulation was unrelated to the execution of the motor act associated with a behavioral report of the perceptual decision. Further, changes in pupil-linked arousal, fixational eye movements, or gamma-band responses were not necessary for the beta-band modulation. Together, our results suggest that the beta-band modulation was a top-down signal associated with the process of converting graded perceptual signals into a categorical format underlying flexible behavior. This signal may have been fed back from brain regions involved in decision processing to visual cortex, thus enforcing a “decision-consistent” cortical state

Surprise About Sensory Event Timing Drives Cortical Transients in the Beta Frequency Band

Learning the statistical structure of the environment is crucial for adaptive behavior. Humans and nonhuman decision-makers seem to track such structure through a process of probabilistic inference, which enables predictions about behaviorally relevant events. Deviations from such predictions cause surprise, which in turn helps improve inference. Surprise about the timing of behaviorally relevant sensory events drives phasic responses of neuromodulatory brainstem systems, which project to the cerebral cortex. Here, we developed a computational model-based magnetoencephalography (MEG) approach for mapping the resulting cortical transients across space, time, and frequency, in the human brain (N = 28, 17 female). We used a Bayesian ideal observer model to learn the statistics of the timing of changes in a simple visual detection task. This model yielded quantitative trial-by-trial estimates of temporal surprise. The model-based surprise variable predicted trial-by-trial variations in reaction time more strongly than the externally observable interval timings alone. Trial-by-trial variations in surprise were negatively correlated with the power of cortical population activity measured with MEG. This surprise-related power suppression occurred transiently around the behavioral response, specifically in the beta frequency band. It peaked in parietal and prefrontal cortices, remote from the motor cortical suppression of beta power related to overt report (button press) of change detection. Our results indicate that surprise about sensory event timing transiently suppresses ongoing beta-band oscillations in association cortex. This transient suppression of frontal beta-band oscillations might reflect an active reset triggered by surprise, and is in line with the idea that beta-oscillations help maintain cognitive sets.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The brain continuously tracks the statistical structure of the environment to anticipate behaviorally relevant events. Deviations from such predictions cause surprise, which in turn drives neural activity in subcortical brain regions that project to the cerebral cortex. We used magnetoencephalography in humans to map out surprise-related modulations of cortical population activity across space, time, and frequency. Surprise was elicited by variable timing of visual stimulus changes requiring a behavioral response. Surprise was quantified by means of an ideal observer model. Surprise predicted behavior as well as a transient suppression of beta frequency-band oscillations in frontal cortical regions. Our results are in line with conceptual accounts that have linked neural oscillations in the beta-band to the maintenance of cognitive sets

Essays on aggregation and cointegration of econometric models

This dissertation can be broadly divided into two independent parts. The first three chapters analyse issues related to temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of econometric models. The fourth chapter contains an application of Bayesian techniques to investigate whether the post transition fiscal policy of Poland is sustainable in the long run and consistent with an intertemporal budget constraint. Chapter 1 surveys the econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for a wide range of univariate and multivariate time series models. A unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes is presented in the first part of the chapter and the main results are summarized. In each case, assuming to know the underlying process at the disaggregate frequency, the aim is to find the appropriate model for the aggregated data. Additional topics concerning temporal aggregation of ARIMA-GARCH models (see Drost and Nijman, 1993) are discussed and several examples presented. Systematic sampling schemes are also reviewed. Multivariate models, which show interesting features under temporal aggregation (Breitung and Swanson, 2002, Marcellino, 1999, Hafner, 2008), are examined in the second part of the chapter. In particular, the focus is on temporal aggregation of VARMA models and on the related concept of spurious instantaneous causality, which is not a time series property invariant to temporal aggregation. On the other hand, as pointed out by Marcellino (1999), other important time series features as cointegration and presence of unit roots are invariant to temporal aggregation and are not induced by it. Some empirical applications based on macroeconomic and financial data illustrate all the techniques surveyed and the main results. Chapter 2 is an attempt to monitor fiscal variables in the Euro area, building an early warning signal indicator for assessing the development of public finances in the short-run and exploiting the existence of monthly budgetary statistics from France, taken as "example country". The application is conducted focusing on the cash State deficit, looking at components from the revenue and expenditure sides. For each component, monthly ARIMA models are estimated and then temporally aggregated to the annual frequency, as the policy makers are interested in yearly predictions. The short-run forecasting exercises carried out for years 2002, 2003 and 2004 highlight the fact that the one-step-ahead predictions based on the temporally aggregated models generally outperform those delivered by standard monthly ARIMA modeling, as well as the official forecasts made available by the French government, for each of the eleven components and thus for the whole State deficit. More importantly, by the middle of the year, very accurate predictions for the current year are made available. The proposed method could be extremely useful, providing policy makers with a valuable indicator when assessing the development of public finances in the short-run (one year horizon or even less). Chapter 3 deals with the issue of forecasting contemporaneous time series aggregates. The performance of "aggregate" and "disaggregate" predictors in forecasting contemporaneously aggregated vector ARMA (VARMA) processes is compared. An aggregate predictor is built by forecasting directly the aggregate process, as it results from contemporaneous aggregation of the data generating vector process. A disaggregate predictor is a predictor obtained from aggregation of univariate forecasts for the individual components of the data generating vector process. The econometric framework is broadly based on Lütkepohl (1987). The necessary and sufficient condition for the equality of mean squared errors associated with the two competing methods in the bivariate VMA(1) case is provided. It is argued that the condition of equality of predictors as stated in Lütkepohl (1987), although necessary and sufficient for the equality of the predictors, is sufficient (but not necessary) for the equality of mean squared errors. Furthermore, it is shown that the same forecasting accuracy for the two predictors can be achieved using specific assumptions on the parameters of the VMA(1) structure. Finally, an empirical application that involves the problem of forecasting the Italian monetary aggregate M1 on the basis of annual time series ranging from 1948 until 1998, prior to the creation of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), is presented to show the relevance of the topic. In the empirical application, the framework is further generalized to deal with heteroskedastic and cross-correlated innovations. Chapter 4 deals with a cointegration analysis applied to the empirical investigation of fiscal sustainability. The focus is on a particular country: Poland. The choice of Poland is not random. First, the motivation stems from the fact that fiscal sustainability is a central topic for most of the economies of Eastern Europe. Second, this is one of the first countries to start the transition process to a market economy (since 1989), providing a relatively favorable institutional setting within which to study fiscal sustainability (see Green, Holmes and Kowalski, 2001). The emphasis is on the feasibility of a permanent deficit in the long-run, meaning whether a government can continue to operate under its current fiscal policy indefinitely. The empirical analysis to examine debt stabilization is made up by two steps. First, a Bayesian methodology is applied to conduct inference about the cointegrating relationship between budget revenues and (inclusive of interest) expenditures and to select the cointegrating rank. This task is complicated by the conceptual difficulty linked to the choice of the prior distributions for the parameters relevant to the economic problem under study (Villani, 2005). Second, Bayesian inference is applied to the estimation of the normalized cointegrating vector between budget revenues and expenditures. With a single cointegrating equation, some known results concerning the posterior density of the cointegrating vector may be used (see Bauwens, Lubrano and Richard, 1999). The priors used in the paper lead to straightforward posterior calculations which can be easily performed. Moreover, the posterior analysis leads to a careful assessment of the magnitude of the cointegrating vector. Finally, it is shown to what extent the likelihood of the data is important in revising the available prior information, relying on numerical integration techniques based on deterministic methods.Doctorat en sciences économiques (ECON 3)--UCL, 200