Инфраструктура пространственных гляциологических данных

Substantial and rapid environmental changes require developing methods which could be able to manage huge information flows, to optimize processes of the data acquisition, storage, analysis, and exchange. Such facilities can be provided by the newly developed GIS technologies. Digital data bases are used as the key component of the GIS methods. We present the system of glaciological data management, developed in the Institute of Geography of Russian Academy of Sciences (IGRAS). Digital Atlas «Snow and Ice on the Earth», glacier inventories and digital library are the basic structures making possible objective presentation of the glaciological knowledge and data. The system provides the data integration, access to the data base, and makes possible using the GIS techniques for analysis. Data integration technologies are designed to form the united information space of subject areas of the spatial data. The objects of integration in our study are the information resources of glaciology, accumulated in a distributed system of data on the IGRAS web servers and geoportals in forms of data and metadata bases, structured (in a particular format) data files, object data files (plain text, documents, images, etc.), and electronic atlases. The best option for formation of a large-scale distributed environment, integration of many information resources of glaciology is to provide the so-called interoperability of data. This refers to compliance with certain rules or usage of additional software tools that allows interaction between various spatial data. These are standards to which the integrated information resources of glaciology should satisfy. The result of integration of the glaciological data technology application is the series of software and technology solutions. The main result of this work is creation of geoportals «Electronic Earth» (www.webgeo.ru), «The Nature and Resources of the Russian North» (www.north.webgeo.ru), «IPY-IGRAS» (www.mpg.igras.ru), all based on the spatial glaciological data. Another result is the digital and web-atlas «Snow and Ice of the Earth», presenting the example of open source of the spatial data on glaciology in the multi-program environment. Regional data bases created for regions of the Caucasus and the Antarctic Continent make it possible to develop various GIS models and to analyze interrelations, status and dynamics of glaciological parameters. The system of links provides easy access to distributed resources.Представлена созданная в Институте географии РАН тематическая инфраструктура пространственных данных в части гляциологических ресурсов. В её основу легли геопортальные решения и интеграционные технологии. Предмет интеграции – информационные ресурсы по гляциологии, хранящиеся в распределённых системах в виде баз данных и метаданных, структурированных и объектных файлов данных, а также электронных атласов. Рассмотрены примеры реализации предложенных подходов: портал «География», портал «МПГ–ИГРАН» электронный атлас «Снег и лёд на Земле», региональные базы данных на территорию Кавказа и Антарктиды

Изменение площади и объёма ледников Горного Алтая (Россия) с середины ХХ в. по данным космических съёмок

The paper examines changes in the area and volume of the Katun river basin glaciers, North and South Chu glaciers of the Altai Mountains since the beginning of the USSR glaciers inventarization to the present. For this purpose, we used USSR Glaciers Inventory data, space imagery – CORONA-1968, ALOS PRISM-2008, Landsat and ASTER 2000–2012. In total, glaciers have lost 172.4 km2 (27.4%) of its area.Рассматривается изменение площади и объёма ледников Горного Алтая с начала каталогизации ледников СССР по настоящее время. Для оценки изменений площади ледников использованы данные Каталога ледников СССР и космические снимки со спутников CORONA, ALOS PRISM, Landsat и ASTER.К 2008 г. ледники Катунского, Северо- и Южно-Чуйского хребтов потеряли 172,4 км2 площади, или 27,7%. Суммарное сокращение объёма ледников составило 8,9 км3. Объёмы ледников вычислены с помощью корреляционных зависимостей, полученных по данным полевого радиолокационного зондирования алтайских ледников. Сравнение космических снимков 2004 и 2012 гг. с данными середины прошлого века позволило сделать вывод об увеличении скорости сокращения площади ледников в последнее десятилетие в 1,5–2 раза

Stability of Terrestrial Planets in the Habitable Zone of Gl 777 A, HD 72659, Gl 614, 47 Uma and HD 4208

We have undertaken a thorough dynamical investigation of five extrasolar planetary systems using extensive numerical experiments. The systems Gl 777 A, HD 72659, Gl 614, 47 Uma and HD 4208 were examined concerning the question of whether they could host terrestrial like planets in their habitable zones (=HZ). First we investigated the mean motion resonances between fictitious terrestrial planets and the existing gas giants in these five extrasolar systems. Then a fine grid of initial conditions for a potential terrestrial planet within the HZ was chosen for each system, from which the stability of orbits was then assessed by direct integrations over a time interval of 1 million years. The computations were carried out using a Lie-series integration method with an adaptive step size control. This integration method achieves machine precision accuracy in a highly efficient and robust way, requiring no special adjustments when the orbits have large eccentricities. The stability of orbits was examined with a determination of the Renyi entropy, estimated from recurrence plots, and with a more straight forward method based on the maximum eccentricity achieved by the planet over the 1 million year integration. Additionally, the eccentricity is an indication of the habitability of a terrestrial planet in the HZ; any value of e>0.2 produces a significant temperature difference on a planet's surface between apoapse and periapse. The results for possible stable orbits for terrestrial planets in habitable zones for the five systems are summarized as follows: for Gl 777 A nearly the entire HZ is stable, for 47 Uma, HD 72659 and HD 4208 terrestrial planets can survive for a sufficiently long time, while for Gl 614 our results exclude terrestrial planets moving in stable orbits within the HZ.Comment: 14 pages, 18 figures submitted to A&

Реакция ледников Центрального Кавказа в 2001–2010 гг. на изменения температуры и количества осадков

This paper examines changes in surface area and terminus retreat of glaciers in the Greater Caucasus Mountains between 2001 and 2010 using ASTER imagery. The use of consistent high-resolution imagery such as ASTER significantly reduces uncertainties in measurements of glacier shrinkage and retreat and enables assessments at decadal intervals which are important for both scientists and regional decision-makers. Two ASTER images acquired on 15 September 2001 and 29 September 2010 covering central sector of the Greater Caucasus Ridge and the Elbrus glaciated massif were used for glacier mapping. Outlines of 179 glaciers were mapped of which 108 glaciers are located on the northern macroslope of the Greater Caucasus and on Mt Elbrus in the Baksan River catchment (Russia) and 71 are located on the southern macroslope in the Inguri River catchment (Georgia). In total, glaciers lost 5% of their area. Glacier wastage was higher in the Inguri catchment at 5.6%; in the Baksan catchment, glaciers lost 4.3% of their area. Termini positions of 28 valley glaciers were measured on ASTER and aerial photographs to compare rates of glacier retreat in 2001–2010 and 1987–2001.The rate of this recession increased, this fact confirmed by field studies in Baksan basin. Glacier mass balance observations at Garabashi glacier  indicate strong reduction in cumulative mass balance since 1998 providing further evidence on glacier wastage. The observed shrinkage of Caucasus glaciers is mainly connected with increasing in summer temperatures.Increase in precipitation has not compensated for an increase in temperature between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 periods. Оценено изменение размеров ледников Центрального Кавказа с 2001 по 2010 г. Для количественной оценки сокращения площади ледников Центрального Кавказа в бассейнах рек Баксан и Ингури за этот период использованы материалы повторной космической съёмки. В среднем эта величина составила 5%. По сравнению с предыдущим периодом наблюдений (1987–2001 гг.) средняя скорость отступания языков ледников увеличилась. Причины сокращения площади ледников анализировались на основе данных непрерывного многолетнего ряда балансовых наблюдений на леднике Гарабаши (Эльбрус), а также материалов наблюдений за изменениями температуры и количества осадков на метеостанции Терскол. Сокращение размеров оледенения хорошо коррелирует с ростом летних температур в высокогорье Кавказа, несмотря на увеличение количества зимних осадков

Электронный атлас «Снег и лёд на Земле»

Results of the work done on creating the digital glaciological atlas are discussed. The prerequisites for and the techniques of the Atlas preparation together with its structure, content, and the ways of the use are presented. Обсуждаются результаты работ по созданию электронного гляциологического атласа. Рассмотрены предпосылки и методы его создания, структура, содержание и возможности использования.

Открытие и исследования ледников севера континентальной России

The history of studies of ten mountain glacier systems in Russian Subarctic is analyzed in the paper (Fig. 1). The intensity of these systems reduction and the vertical extent of glaciers during last 150 and 50 years are compared with the climate warming in this part of Russia, the map of accumulation–ablation on glaciers of this region is given (Fig. 3). Very quick reaction of the glacier surface to climatic changes is shown. The precision of glaciers’ size during 1960–1980 and 2000 are estimated and suggestion for future monitoring of glaciers size is made.Изложена история открытия в ХХ в. 10 ледниковых систем континентальной России, расположенных севернее 60-й параллели. Обсуждаются вопросы современной изученности аккумуляции–абляции, размеров и динамики ледников за последние 150 лет. Построена карта аккумуляции–абляции на ледниках северо-востока России, подтверждающая их принадлежность к Тихоокеанской гляциологической провинции. Охарактеризованы возможности изучения современного состояния ледников на основе использования результатов космической съёмки

Prevalence and outcomes of pregnancies in women living with HIV over a 20-year period: The EuroSIDA study, 1996 to 2015

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate time trends in pregnancies and pregnancy outcomes among women living with HIV in Europe. DESIGN: European multicentre prospective cohort study. METHODS: EuroSIDA has collected annual cross-sectional audits of pregnancies between 1996 and 2015. Pregnancy data were extracted and described. Odds of pregnancy were modelled, adjusting for potential confounders using logistic regression with generalised estimating equations. RESULTS: Of 5535 women aged 16 to <50 years, 4217 (76.2%) had pregnancy information available, and 912 (21.6%) reported 1315 pregnancies. The proportions with at least one pregnancy were 28.1% (321/1143) in East, 24.5% (146/596) in North, 19.8% (140/706) in West/Central, 19.3% (110/569) in Central East and 16.2% (195/1203) in South Europe. Overall 319 pregnancies (24.3%) occurred in 1996-2002, 576 (43.8%) in 2003-2009 and 420 (31.9%) in 2010-2015. After adjustment, the odds of pregnancy were lower in 1996-2002, in South, Central East and East compared to West/Central Europe, in older women, those with low CD4 counts or with prior AIDS, and higher in those with a previous pregnancy or who were HCV positive.Outcomes were reported for 999 pregnancies in 1996-2014, with 690 live births (69.1%), seven stillbirths (0.7%), 103 spontaneous (10.3%) and 199 medical abortions (19.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Around 20% of women in EuroSIDA reported a pregnancy, with most pregnancies after 2002, when more effective antiretroviral therapy became available. Substantial differences were seen between European regions. Further surveillance of pregnancies and outcomes among women living with HIV is warranted to ensure equal access to care

Изменения горных ледников в Северном и Южном полушариях за последние 160 лет

Changes of the glacier areas were analyzed. Rates of the area reduction of glaciers and glacier systems were compared over the course of the past 160 years as well as during shorter time intervals for the same period. On average for the whole period, the glacier areas decreased by a few tenths of a percent from the original in a year. Note, that this value was formed by rates for periods of the glacier retreating and advancing which were comparable by their intensities with rates from tenths of a percent to several percents of area in a year. In the first and the last thirds of the 20th century, when a rise of the air temperature decelerated, a number of advancing glaciers increased in both hemispheres. During these periods the same glaciers advanced (up to 25% of the total quantity of the investigated glaciers in the Alps). The second third of the 20th and the begin‑ ning of the 21st century were characterized by intensification of the temperature rise, and as the consequence of that, the number of advancing glaciers decreased, and rates of the area reductions increased over the whole globe. This dynamics was in a good agreement with the sea ice fluctuations in both, the Arctic and Antarctic regions, where the ice coverage increased in the 1960–1970 and in the second tenth of XXI century. So, decel‑ eration of the climate warming in that time was followed by increasing of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverage and by deceleration of the area reduction of the mountain glacierization in some regions.Исследованы скорости перемещения фронта и изменения площади ряда ледников за последние 160 лет. В этот период на общем фоне сокращения горного оледенения число наступающих ледников возрастало при замедлении роста температур воздуха в первой и последней третях ХХ в. Во второй трети ХХ и начале XXI вв. отступание ледников усиливалось вместе с заметным ростом температуры воздуха. Такие изменения согласуются с колебаниями площади морских льдов, которая в 1960–70-х годах возрастала, а в середине ХХ и начале XXI вв. уменьшалась

Ледники в горах России (Кавказ, Алтай, Камчатка) в первой четверти XXI века

The conducted studies allowed us to obtain a detailed picture of glaciation changes in the mountain regions of Russia, most provided with information about glaciers in the twentieth century. For the Caucasus glaciation, the data were obtained for the time periods 1911, 1952, 2000, 2014, 2018 and 2020; for Altai – for 1850, 1952, 2003 and 2018. For large glaciation nodes of the Central Altai – Katun, South and North Chuya Ridges additionally for 1968, 2008, and 2017. In both areas, a decrease in the area of glaciers since the beginning of the twentieth century and acceleration of the rate of reduction in the early twenty-first century have been revealed. The glaciers of the Caucasus and Altai reduced their size during this time by 46% and 48%, respectively. On average, in the twentieth century the glaciers of the Caucasus lost about 0.2% of the area per year, in the Altai – 0.15%, and in the early twentieth century 1.15 and 1.7% respectively. To study Kamchatka glaciers, we used data from the Glacier Inventory of the USSR (1950/1957) and images from different satellites in the period 2007–2019. The glaciers that were not previously registered in the Glacier Inventory of the USSR were identified. The greatest number of such glaciers is in the northern part of the Midnight Ridge, where out of 465 glaciers identified on modern satellite images, 216 were not included in the Glacier Inventory of the USSR. The area of glaciation in different regions of Kamchatka has changed extremely unevenly since the first cataloguing, which is associated with significant differences in glacier morphology. Glaciers of volcanic areas increased their size or remained stationary; here there is no tendency for glaciers to decrease due to the thick surface moraine consisting of volcanogenic material. Comparison of data from the Glacier Inventory of the USSR (as of the 1950s–70s) and the Glacier Inventory of Russia (2017–2019) shows a decrease in glaciation area from the mid-20th century to the end of the second decade of the 21st century in all mountainous regions of Russia except only the volcanic regions of Kamchatka. The area reduction ranges from 63% (Ural) to 13% (Kodar). The largest glacial systems of the Caucasus, Kamchatka and Altai have reduced their areas by 25, 22 and 39%, respectively.Проведённые в последнее время исследования позволили получить детальную картину изменений ледников в наиболее обеспеченных данными горных районах России. Для оледенения Кавказа получены данные на временные срезы 1911, 1952, 2000, 2014, 2018 и 2020 г.; для Алтая – на 1850, 1952, 2003 и 2018 г. Для крупных узлов оледенения Центрального Алтая – Катунского, Южно- и Северо-Чуйского хребтов дополнительно на 1968, 2008, 2017 г. В обоих районах выявлены устойчивое сокращение площади ледников с начала ХХ в. и ускорение темпов сокращения в начале ХХI в. Для исследования ледников Камчатки были использованы данные Каталога ледников СССР и снимки с разных спутников и за разные годы (2007–2019). Выявлено множество ледников, ранее не зарегистрированных в Каталоге ледников СССР. Площадь оледенения в разных районах Камчатки со времени первой каталогизации изменялась крайне неравномерно, что связано со значительными различиями в морфологии ледников. Ледники вулканических районов увеличили свои размеры или оставались стационарными; здесь нет тенденции к сокращению ледников из-за мощной поверхностной морены, состоящей из вулканогенного материала. Сравнение данных Каталога ледников СССР (1965–1982) и Каталога ледников России (2017–2019) показывает сокращение площади оледенения с середины ХХ в. до конца второй декады ХХI в. во всех горных районах России за исключением вулканических областей Камчатки