VOLATILITY SPILLOVERS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE, COMMODITY AND FREIGHT FUTURES PRICES: IMPLICATIONS FOR HEDGING STRATEGIES

In many studies the assumption is made that traders only encounter one type of price risk. In reality, however, traders are exposed to multiple price risks, and often have several relevant derivative instruments available with which to hedge price uncertainty. In this study, commodity, foreign exchange, and freight futures contracts are analyzed for their effectiveness in reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders. A theoretical model is developed for a representative European importer to depict a realistic trading problem encountered by an international grain trading corporation exposed to more than one type of price risk. The traditional method of estimating hedge ratios by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is compared to the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) and the multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) methodology, which takes into account time-varying variances and covariances between the cash and futures markets. Explicit modeling of the time-variation in futures hedge ratios via the MGARCH methodology, using all derivatives and taking into account dependencies between markets results in a significant reduction in price risk for grain traders. The results also confirm that the unique, but underutilized, freight futures market is a potentially useful mechanism for reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders. The research undertaken in this study provides valuable information about reducing price uncertainty for international grain traders and gives a better understanding of the linkages between closely related markets.hedging, multivariate GARCH, foreign exchange, freight and commodity futures, Marketing, F3, C3, G1,

Review of reconstruction efforts in Sri Lanka: Post-tsunami phase

This paper reviews the reconstruction efforts in Sri Lanka to ascertain the efficiency of post-disaster reconstruction through identifying the barriers. Even though the immediate humanitarian relief found to be more effective, long-term reconstruction was ineffective due to lack of funding, lack of knowledge to support local community, institutional constraints, and absence of coordinated management. It suggests that the reliance upon the knowledge, skills, capacities and resources of local people together with effective planning can lead the reconstruction process towards the success

Post conflict housing reconstruction: housing needs and expectations of conflict affected communities

Post conflict housing reconstruction plays an important role in establishing the country’s development and prospect of peace. Despite this importance, it was identified that there are inconsistencies between the provision of built housing and the needs of the users. Therefore many post conflict housing reconstruction projects lead to dissatisfaction on the part of residents and remodelling by themselves or rejection and abandonment. Hence it is important and necessary to address conflict affected communities’ housing reconstruction needs in post conflict housing reconstruction. With regard to this, it is worthwhile to examine the concept of housing needs in general and to explore the housing needs of conflict affected communities. Therefore this paper aims to present a synthesis of housing needs literature relevant to usual and post conflict contexts. In relevance to housing needs in general, housing preferences in a market context and adequate housing measures were identified. Following this, housing needs of conflict affected communities were identified. In a market context, housing needs were exhibited in terms of the subjective preferences of households. Adequate housing was recognized as part of the right to an adequate standard of living in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights and in the 1966 International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. Hence adequate housing measures identified certain aspects of housing that must be taken into account for this purpose in any particular context. Whilst most housing considerations of conflict affected communities were similar to adequate housing measures, conflict affected communities gave greater importance to their social, cultural and religious values in post conflict housing reconstruction. In addition they considered the aspects of safety and security as being vital, and various perceptions of these communities in relation to housing reconstruction and post occupancy evaluation were important in post conflict housing reconstruction. Nevertheless, no relevant data on special housing needs of disadvantaged groups in post conflict environments were found

Assessing the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone using Bayesian inference

We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changes in ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSI changes in a small number individual wavelength bands between 176 and 310 nm, operating independently of each other. Additionally, we find that the ozone varies approximately linearly with changes in the SSI. Using these facts, we present a Bayesian formalism for inferring SC SSI changes and uncertainties from measured SC ozone profiles. Bayesian inference is a powerful, mathematically self-consistent method of considering both the uncertainties of the data and additional external information to provide the best estimate of parameters being estimated. Using this method, we show that, given measurement uncertainties in both ozone and SSI datasets, it is not currently possible to distinguish between observed or modelled SSI datasets using available estimates of ozone change profiles, although this might be possible by the inclusion of other external constraints. Our methodology has the potential, using wider datasets, to provide better understanding of both variations in SSI and the atmospheric response.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (accepted), pdf version is in draft mode of Space Weather and Space Climat

Apprehending business and society

This paper claims to make a contribution by addressing a significant number of epistemological, theoretical and methodological problems in the business and society literature. We identify six sets of potential influences promoting corporate social responsibility. The private sector encompasses intra-organisational obligations and pressures from competitors, investors and consumers. Governmental and non-governmental organisations exert regulatory pressures. Calling upon radical institutional theory, we address each set with respect to its conceptual arguments, its empirical salience in terms of the latest relevant research, and our considered opinion regarding its prospects to be a significant factor in promoting outcomes consistent with social welfare. The conclusion addresses their combined potential to put capitalism on a firmly sustainable track, or whether they amount to an ideological distraction from capitalist pathologies. A call is made for fresh imaginings of the discourse.<br /

Disaster knowledge factors: benefits and challenges

Disasters bring about the loss of lives, property, employment and damage to the physical infrastructure and the environment. The number of reported disasters has increased steadily over the past century and risen very sharply during the past decade. While knowledge management can enhance the process of disaster management, there is a perceived gap in information coordination and sharing within the context of disaster management. Identification of key disaster knowledge factors will be an enabler to manage disasters successfully. This study aims to identify and map key disaster knowledge success factors in managing disasters successfully through capturing good practices and lessons learned. A list of disaster knowledge factors was first identified through a comprehensive literature review, covering the whole disaster management cycle. Based on these literature findings, semi-structured interviews were conducted among few disaster management practitioners to explore the influence and lacking areas relating to these factors in managing disasters. The objective of this paper is to present the interview findings on benefits and challenges related to the disaster knowledge factors. A comprehensive list of benefits and challenges of disaster knowledge factors in managing disasters is identified

Knowledge management for disaster resilience: Identification of key success factors

The number of reported disasters has increased steadily over the past century and risen very sharply during the past decade. These bring about the loss of lives, property, employment and damage to the physical infrastructure and the environment. Disaster management efforts aim to reduce or avoid the potential losses from hazards, assure prompt and appropriate assistance to victims of disaster, and achieve rapid and effective recovery. While knowledge management can enhance the process of disaster management, there is a perceived gap in information coordination and sharing within the context of disaster management. Identifying key success factors will be an enabler to manage the disasters successfully. In this context, this study aims to identify and map key knowledge success factors for managing disasters successfully through capturing the good practices and lessons learned. The objective of this paper is to present the literature findings on factors which support successful disaster management. Accordingly the identified factors were classified into eight main categories as technological, social, legal, environmental, economical, functional, institutional and political

A new SATIRE-S spectral solar irradiance reconstruction for solar cycles 21--23 and its implications for stratospheric ozone

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.Comment: 25 pages (18 pages in main article with 6 figures; 7 pages in supplementary materials with 6 figures) in draft mode using the American Meteorological Society package. Submitted to Journal of Atmospheric Sciences for publicatio