Should bone mineral content be part of the equation for assessing fracture risk in patients with Cerebral Palsy

Peer reviewedPostprin

Shock Index Predicts up to 90-day Mortality Risk after Intracerebral Haemorrhage

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following individuals should be indexed on PubMed as collaborators - VISTA-ICH Steering Committee: DF Hanley (Chair), K Butcher, S Davis, B Gregson, KR Lees, P Lyden, S Mayer, K Muir, and T SteinerPeer reviewedPostprin

An ecological study assessing the relationship between Public Health Policies and Severity of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Funding: This research received no external funding.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Country-level determinants of the severity of the first global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic : an ecological study

Acknowledgements We would like to thank Dr Kathryn Martin, who provided valuable advice in study design. Funding This work was supported by the Aberdeen Clinical Academic Training Scheme.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Impact of diabetes on complications, long term mortality and recurrence in 608,890 hospitalised patients with stroke

Background: Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have been found to be at an increased risk of suffering a stroke. However, research on the impact of DM on stroke outcomes is limited. Objectives: We aimed to examine the influence of DM on outcomes in ischaemic (IS) and haemorrhagic stroke (HS) patients. Methods: We included 608,890 consecutive stroke patients from the Thailand national insurance registry. In-hospital mortality, sepsis, pneumonia, acute kidney injury (AKI), urinary tract infection (UTI) and cardiovascular events were evaluated using logistic regressions. Long-term analysis was performed on first-stroke patients with a determined pathology (n = 398,663) using Royston-Parmar models. Median follow-ups were 4.21 and 4.78 years for IS and HS, respectively. All analyses were stratified by stroke sub-type. Results: Mean age (SD) was 64.3 (13.7) years, 44.9% were female with 61% IS, 28% HS and 11% undetermined strokes. DM was associated with in-hospital death, pneumonia, sepsis, AKI and cardiovascular events (odds ratios ranging from 1.13-1.78, p < 0.01) in both stroke types. In IS, DM was associated with long-term mortality and recurrence throughout the follow-up: HRmax (99% CI) at t = 4108 days: 1.54 (1.27, 1.86) and HR (99% CI) = 1.27(1.23,1.32), respectively. In HS, HRmax (t = 4108 days) for long-term mortality was 2.10 (1.87, 2.37), significant after day 14 post-discharge. HRmax (t = 455) for long-term recurrence of HS was 1.29 (1.09, 1.53), significant after day 116 post-discharge. Conclusions: Regardless of stroke type, DM was associated with in-hospital death and complications, long-term mortality and stroke recurrence

Country-level determinants of the severity of the first global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: an ecological study

Objective We aimed to identify the country-level determinants of the severity of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Design Ecological study of publicly available data. Countries reporting &gt;25 COVID-19 related deaths until 8 June 2020 were included. The outcome was log mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential determinants assessed were most recently published demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, population &gt;65 years, average body mass index and smoking prevalence); economic parameters (gross domestic product per capita); environmental parameters (pollution levels and mean temperature (January–May); comorbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer); health system parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10 000 population); international arrivals; the stringency index, as a measure of country-level response to COVID-19; BCG vaccination coverage; UV radiation exposure; and testing capacity. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data.Primary outcome Country-level mean mortality rate: the mean slope of the COVID-19 mortality curve during its ascending phase.Participants Thirty-seven countries were included: Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK and the USA.Results Of all country-level determinants included in the multivariable model, total number of international arrivals (beta 0.033 (95% CI 0.012 to 0.054)) and BCG vaccination coverage (−0.018 (95% CI −0.034 to –0.002)), were significantly associated with the natural logarithm of the mean death rate.Conclusions International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel should be considered to control COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent related deaths

Predicting 10-year stroke mortality: development and validation of a nomogram.

Predicting long-term stroke mortality is a clinically important and unmet need. We aimed to develop and internally validate a 10-year ischaemic stroke mortality prediction score. In this UK cohort study, 10,366 patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke between January 2003 and December 2016 were followed up for a median (interquartile range) of 5.47 (2.96-9.15) years. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to predict 10-year post-admission mortality. The predictors associated with 10-year mortality included age, sex, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), pre-stroke modified Rankin Score, admission haemoglobin, sodium, white blood cell count and comorbidities (atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, heart failure, cancer, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, liver disease and peripheral vascular disease). The model was internally validated using bootstrap resampling to assess optimism in discrimination and calibration. A nomogram was created to facilitate application of the score at the point of care. Mean age (SD) was 78.5 ± 10.9 years, 52% female. Most strokes were partial anterior circulation syndromes (38%). 10-year mortality predictors were: total anterior circulation stroke (hazard ratio, 95% confidence intervals) (2.87, 2.62-3.14), eGFR < 15 (1.97, 1.55-2.52), 1-year increment in age (1.04, 1.04-1.05), liver disease (1.50, 1.20-1.87), peripheral vascular disease (1.39, 1.23-1.57), cancers (1.37, 1.27-1.47), heart failure (1.24, 1.15-1.34), 1-point increment in pre-stroke mRS (1.20, 1.17-1.22), atrial fibrillation (1.17, 1.10-1.24), coronary heart disease (1.09, 1.02-1.16), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.13, 1.03-1.25) and hypertension (0.77, 0.72-0.82). Upon internal validation, the optimism-adjusted c-statistic was 0.76 and calibration slope was 0.98. Our 10-year mortality model uses routinely collected point-of-care information. It is the first 10-year mortality score in stroke. While the model was internally validated, further external validation is also warranted