The Hungarian peach production risks

Hungary possesses very good agroecological conditions even in a European comparison. Agriculture and food production ishighly important despite its decreasing relative economic significance, since providing high quality and affordable food for the population isa basic social necessity and one of the decisive factors in quality of life. The development of vegetable and fruit production is of greatimportance both from a healthy nutrition as well as from a comparative advantage (cheap labour, expertise, production traditions, favourableclimate) point of view.Vegetable and fruit consumption per capita is lower than in developed countries, which is a decisive indicator of healthynutrition, but improvement is continuous and desired. Appropriate quality and quantity in production is a requirement to meet customers’needs in a highly competitive market from one year to the next. Hungary can only be competitive if production results are improved whilerisks are reduced. Fruit production is a sector with high capital requirements, risk assessment is very important from a production, investmentas well as from a national economy point of view. Our examinations will focus on production risk, which is present in the annual fluctuationof average yields, especially as a result of extreme weather factors

Comparative analysis of the production risk of major fruit species

Hungary possesses excellent agri-ecological potentials even in an international comparison. Despite their decreasing economic weight, agriculture and food production are of great significance, since the supply of the population with high quality and inexpensive food is a fundamental social demand and one of the essentials of the quality of life. The development of vegetable and food production is of great importance both from the aspect of healthy nutrition and comparative advantages (cheap workforce, professional expertise, traditions of production, climate favourable for quality). Within the Hungarian fruit production apple and sour cherry are essential branches in virtue of their significance. It is widely known, that – though to a different extent in the case of certain fruit varieties – satisfaction of the need for appropriate habitat is one of the important conditions of a decent quality and secure production. In my research, I analyse the territorial distribution, production standard and production risk of the Hungarian apple and sour cherry branches. I did not have the opportunity – because of the imperfections of the database – to compare long time series, therefore I examine the random effects affecting production by using the data of 3 years (they have the same content). I ranked and assessed each habitat and the production risks of certain fruit species compared to each other on the basis of indexes of relative deviation

Comparative analysis of the production risk of major fruit species

Hungary possesses excellent agri-ecological potentials even in an international comparison. Despite their decreasing economicweight, agriculture and food production are of great significance, since the supply of the population with high quality and inexpensive foodis a fundamental social demand and one of the essentials of the quality of life. The development of vegetable and food production is of greatimportance both from the aspect of healthy nutrition and comparative advantages (cheap workforce, professional expertise, traditions ofproduction, climate favourable for quality). Within the Hungarian fruit production apple and sour cherry are essential branches in virtue oftheir significance. It is widely known, that – though to a different extent in the case of certain fruit varieties – satisfaction of the need forappropriate habitat is one of the important conditions of a decent quality and secure production. In my research, I analyse the territorialdistribution, production standard and production risk of the Hungarian apple and sour cherry branches. I did not have the opportunity –because of the imperfections of the database – to compare long time series, therefore I examine the random effects affecting production byusing the data of 3 years (they have the same content). I ranked and assessed each habitat and the production risks of certain fruit speciescompared to each other on the basis of indexes of relative deviation

The Hungarian peach production risks

Hungary possesses very good agroecological conditions even in a European comparison. Agriculture and food production is highly important despite its decreasing relative economic significance, since providing high quality and affordable food for the population is a basic social necessity and one of the decisive factors in quality of life. The development of vegetable and fruit production is of great importance both from a healthy nutrition as well as from a comparative advantage (cheap labour, expertise, production traditions, favourable climate) point of view.Vegetable and fruit consumption per capita is lower than in developed countries, which is a decisive indicator of healthy nutrition, but improvement is continuous and desired. Appropriate quality and quantity in production is a requirement to meet customers’ needs in a highly competitive market from one year to the next. Hungary can only be competitive if production results are improved while risks are reduced. Fruit production is a sector with high capital requirements, risk assessment is very important from a production, investment as well as from a national economy point of view. Our examinations will focus on production risk, which is present in the annual fluctuation of average yields, especially as a result of extreme weather factors

Comparison of pear production areas from yield risk aspect

There are three main pear production regions in Hungary. The most relevant is theWest-Transdanubian (Zala, Vas and Gyôr-Moson-Sopron counties), where up to 30% of total pear production occurs. The second most productive region is Pest County, where pear is grownmostly in gardens and garden plots, resulting in 15-20% of Hungarian production. In the northern Hungarian region (Bodrog valley in Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Nógrád counties), the microclimate is perfect for optimal pear production. In our analysis, we focused on fourplantations that are dominant in pear production in Hungary. Two of them are situated in south-western Hungary, one of them is in SouthTransdanubia and one is in North Hungary. Considering the personal attitude of the decision maker towards risk, the best alternative is ‘Williams’in Alsóberecki, as the yield risk is the lowest with this variety, while the second best alternative is ‘Bosc Beurre,’ also produced in Alsóberecki.This is an irrigated area, and this fact evidently decreases the yield risk. The highest risk is in Bánfapuszta and in Zalasárszeg, for the non-irrigated‘Williams’ variety. The highest yield with the lowest risk can be obtained with irrigation. Nevertheless, in the case that relevant data are available,and by incorporating cost and expected profit data, the stochastic dominance method is suitable for financial risk assessment, as well

Climatic indicators regarding the rest period of sour cherry

Sour cherry production in the world is increasing gradually. Profitable production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weatherconditions. If Hungary wishes to keep up with the most successful countries, attention should be paid to the weather during the dormancyperiod, being definitely decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict the expected risk factors,characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research andExtension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), and phenological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’,’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. For the future expectations study we have used the RegCM3.1 regional climate model with 10 kmresolution. Data of 4 indicators have been traced: Average temperatures, Number of days without frost, Maximum length of periods withoutfrost, Maximum length of frosty period. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for thefuture changes expected during the following decades

Comparison of pear production areas from yield risk aspect

There are three main pear production regions in Hungary. The most relevant is theWest-Transdanubian (Zala, Vas and Gyôr-Moson-Sopron counties), where up to 30% of total pear production occurs. The second most productive region is Pest County, where pear is grown mostly in gardens and garden plots, resulting in 15-20% of Hungarian production. In the northern Hungarian region (Bodrog valley in Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Nógrád counties), the microclimate is perfect for optimal pear production. In our analysis, we focused on four plantations that are dominant in pear production in Hungary. Two of them are situated in south-western Hungary, one of them is in South Transdanubia and one is in North Hungary. Considering the personal attitude of the decision maker towards risk, the best alternative is ‘Williams’ in Alsóberecki, as the yield risk is the lowest with this variety, while the second best alternative is ‘Bosc Beurre,’ also produced in Alsóberecki. This is an irrigated area, and this fact evidently decreases the yield risk. The highest risk is in Bánfapuszta and in Zalasárszeg, for the non-irrigated ‘Williams’ variety. The highest yield with the lowest risk can be obtained with irrigation. Nevertheless, in the case that relevant data are available, and by incorporating cost and expected profit data, the stochastic dominance method is suitable for financial risk assessment, as well

Climatic indicators regarding the rest period of sour cherry

Sour cherry production in the world is increasing gradually. Profitable production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. If Hungary wishes to keep up with the most successful countries, attention should be paid to the weather during the dormancy period, being definitely decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict the expected risk factors, characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), and phenological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. For the future expectations study we have used the RegCM3.1 regional climate model with 10 km resolution. Data of 4 indicators have been traced: Average temperatures, Number of days without frost, Maximum length of periods without frost, Maximum length of frosty period. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades

Climatic indicator analysis of blooming time for sour cherries

County Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg produces more than the half of the total sour cherry grown in Hungary. Successful production,i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. Most attention should be paid to the weather during the blooming period, being mostdecisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict yields expected, the characterisation of the most importantweather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing atÚjfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum,maximum and mean temperatures (°C), precipitation (mm), and phonological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. Data of 7 indicators have been traced: number of frosty days, the absolute minimum temperatures, means ofminimum temperatures, number of days when daily means were above 10°C, means of maximum temperatures, number of days withoutprecipitation, and number of days when precipitation was more than 5 mm. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand,estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades. The indicators being associated with certainrisky events may serve for the prediction of the future recommendations to prevent damages

Climatic indicator analysis of blooming time for sour cherries

County Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg produces more than the half of the total sour cherry grown in Hungary. Successful production, i.e. yield, depends largely on weather conditions. Most attention should be paid to the weather during the blooming period, being most decisive from the points of view of quality as well as quantity. In order to predict yields expected, the characterisation of the most important weather parameters is necessary. For that purpose, the database of the Institute of Research and Extension Service for Fruit Growing at Újfehértó Ltd. has been utilised. Records of weather conditions were collected throughout the period 1984-2005, i.e. daily minimum, maximum and mean temperatures (°C), precipitation (mm), and phonological diary of sour cherry varieties ’Újfehértói fürtös’, ’Kántorjánosi’ and ’Debreceni bôtermô’. Data of 7 indicators have been traced: number of frosty days, the absolute minimum temperatures, means of minimum temperatures, number of days when daily means were above 10°C, means of maximum temperatures, number of days without precipitation, and number of days when precipitation was more than 5 mm. On the one hand, we surveyed the changes; on the other hand, estimates have been attempted for the future changes expected during the following decades. The indicators being associated with certain risky events may serve for the prediction of the future recommendations to prevent damages