Short-run and Long-run Effect of Oil Consumption on Economic Growth: ECM Model

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of oil consumption on economic growth of Aceh in the long-run and short-run by using Error Correction Model (ECM) model during the period before the world commodity prices fall of 1985–2008. Four types of oil consumption will be focused on Avtur, Gasoline, Kerosene and Diesel. The data is collected from Central Bureau of Statistics of Aceh (BPS Aceh). The result of this study shows a merely positive effect of oil consumption type diesel to economic growth in Aceh both in the short run and the long run

Analysis of the Interregional Trade of Agricultural Commodities in West Sumatera, Indonesia

This study aims to investigate factors affecting interregional trade of agricultural commodities between regions in West Sumatera, Indonesia. For this purpose, this study use modified gravity model. There are four commodities that represent interregional trade of agricultural commodities in this study, namely: rice, chicken egg, broiler and fresh sea fish. This study uses cross section data of the 15 regencies/city in West Sumatera. The data is obtained from survey to wholesaler group of agricultural commodities in West Sumatera (primary data). The result of this study shows that factors affecting interregional trade in West Sumatera are: the difference in price (for commodities: rice, chicken egg and broiler), transportation costs (for commodities: broiler and fresh sea fish)

Economic Growth Disparity Among the Regions in Aceh, Indonesia

- This study aims at investigating the extent of cumulative causation effect on economic growth disparity across the regions: Basajan-Pijay, Northeast, South-West, and Central-Inland in the Aceh Province, Indonesia. It also includes some others factors in determining economic growth disparity such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the concentration of economic activity areas, Human Development Index (HDI), the labour productivity of the region, the allocation of public investment as well as the accessibility among regions in the Aceh Province. To capture the goals of this study, it uses panel data during the period 2000 to 2010 consisting of 23 districts/cities of Aceh Province. The results show that the potential conditions for convergence because the dominant factor affecting the disparity without entering variable cumulative effect, the concentration of economic activity among regions have positive and negatively affected HDI. By entering variable cumulative effects, it turns HDI to have a negative effect, while the cumulative effect of the growth of inter-regional and the GDP per capita were positive. Thus, it can be said that the economic disparity among regions has the potential for convergence if and only if there is a policy intervention by the government in improving the quality of education, health, and consumer purchasing power to reduce the disparity. It is recommended that the Government of Aceh and District/City Government should encourage the growth of GDP per year, equal to or above the average growth of the national economy in order to increase labour productivity so that economic prosperity has also increased (spread effect is greater than backwash effect) because workings of the cumulative effect of growth within the region and among regions. Keywords : Disparity, Backwash effect, Spread Effect, Economic Growth, AcehPaper Type : Research Pape

Analysis of the Export-base Commodity Supply on the Economic Growth in Aceh, Indonesia

The study aims to identify export base sectors and to analyse its impact to the economic growth based on the Cobb Douglas production function. Some relevant theories to support our arguments among others are base sector, export base and economic growth theory. Data of central government capital spending (CGB), local government capital spending (LGB), export average price (Pavg), provincial minimum wage (W) and linear multiple regression model is employed. The results show that the agriculture is the only basis sector in Aceh. The role of local government capital spending in the export based commodity supply contradicts the theory, provided indication that the local government capital spending has not been able to pull the economic growth. The role of central government capital spending, export average price and minimum wage have been in accordance with the available theoretical background. All independent variables are found to be statistically significant both partially and simultaneously, indicating that those variables are economically important to develop export base sectors in Aceh, however the impact on economic growth is relatively small