Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting

Policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting are examined in a small macroeconometric model of the US economy. We compare the properties and outcomes of explicit 'instrument rules' as well as 'targeting rules'. The latter, which imply implicit instrument rules, may be closer to actual operating procedures of inflation-targeting central banks. We find that inflation forecasts are central for good policy rules under inflation targeting. Some simple instrument and targeting rules do remarkably well relative to the optimal rule; others, including some that are often used as representing inflation targeting, do less well.inflation targeting;

Disruption of the odour-mediated mating behaviour of Plodia interpunctella using high-frequency sound

Indian meal moths, Plodia interpunctella Hubner ( Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), have ears which are sensitive to high-frequency calls produced by echolocating, insectivorous bats. The influence of artificially generated, high-intensity, ultrasound signals (25 kHz, 106 dB SPL at 1 m distance) on different parameters involved in the odour-mediated mating behaviour of this species and its potential use in population control was investigated. All moths flying towards olfactory cues in flight tunnel experiments reacted strongly to a 1 s ultrasound pulse by cessation of flight and falling out of the odour plume. The source contact proportion of both male moths orienting towards the female-produced sex pheromone and of mated female moths orienting towards an oviposition cue was reduced by 40%, compared to unexposed moths. Calling females responded to the sound by retraction of the ovipositor or by falling to the ground. Long-term exposure to repetitive pulses of ultrasound suppressed female calling by up to 27%. Furthermore, mating in plastic tents was disrupted by up to 58% in ultrasound-treated tents using different sound regimens, compared to control tents. The results are discussed in relation to the potential use of ultrasound technology for the population control of pyralid stored product pests

Replicated host-race formation in bogus yucca moths: genetic and ecological divergence of Prodoxus quinquepunctellus on yucca hosts

Goal: Assess host-race formation in certain moths by examining their genetic and ecological differentiation. Organisms: Stalk-feeding moths, Prodoxus quinquepunctellus, collected from sympatric populations of Yucca elata and Y rostrata in west Texas, USA. Results: Moths on the two yuccas differed significantly in mtDNA haplotype frequencies, emergence time, wing dot number, body size, and ovipositor size and shape. Conclusion: Host-race formation has probably occurred in this yucca moth although genetic divergence was low

Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data

Using a small empirical model of inflation, output, and money estimated on U.S. data, we compare the relative performance of monetary targeting and inflation targeting. The results show that monetary targeting would be quite inefficient, with both higher inflation and output variability. This is true even with a deterministic money demand formulation. In this framework, there is thus no support for the prominent role given to money growth in the Eurosystem's monetary policy strategy.

Uncertainty and Triple Access Planning in European Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans: a long way to go yet?

Triple Access Planning (TAP) is the idea that accessibility can be delivered through physical mobility, digital connectivity, and spatial proximity. There is great uncertainty as to how far one of these three elements will substitute for or complement the others in delivering the accessibility we need in future. Sustainable Urban Mobility (SUM) Planning is touted as a relatively new paradigm in local transport planning oriented to the achievement of a wide range of societal objectives. The paper presents a review of how well SUM Plans from eight European countries, and national guidelines from four currently account for TAP and uncertainty in their approach. Our findings suggest that while the concept of physical proximity is well-understood, other aspects of the TAP and uncertainty approach are not. Digital connectivity is largely ignored. The planning future is treated as largely certain, with no consideration of disruptive factors that might alter this future

Identification of (E)- and (Z)-11-tetradecenyl acetate as sex pheromone components of the currant pest Euhyponomeutoides albithoracellus

The currant bud moth Euhyponomeutoides albithoracellus is a destructive pest in black currant orchards in Northern Sweden and Finland. The larvae feed on the buds, and at high densities, the species can cause severe yield losses. Sex pheromone components of the bud moth were identified via solvent extraction of excised female pheromone glands, analyses by gas chromatography with electroantennographic detection and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry and field trapping experiments. Antennae of males responded strongly and consistently to two compounds in extracts, identified as (E)-11-tetradecenyl acetate and (Z)-11-tetradecenyl acetate. Weaker and less consistent responses were observed to the corresponding alcohols, (E)-11-tetradecenol and (Z)-11-tetradecenol, and tetradecyl acetate. Field tests showed strong attraction of bud moth males to a 1:1 blend of (E)-11-tetradecenyl acetate and (Z)-11-tetradecenyl acetate. Adding the alcohols to the binary acetate blend reduced trap catches drastically, whereas tetradecyl acetate had no statistically significant impact on male attraction when added to that binary blend. Finally, testing different compositions of the binary acetate blend revealed highest catch in traps baited with a 25:75 or 50:50 ratio of the E:Z acetate isomers. The identification of sex pheromone components of the bud moth contributes to developing sustainable control of this pest via monitoring and mating disruption with sex pheromone

Metapopulation dynamics over 25 years of a beetle, Osmoderma eremita, inhabiting hollow oaks

Osmoderma eremita is a species of beetle that inhabits hollows in ancient trees, which is a habitat that has decreased significantly during the last century. In southeastern Sweden, we studied the metapopulation dynamics of this beetle over a 25 year period, using capture-mark-recapture. The metapopulation size had been rather stable over time, but in most of the individual trees there had been a positive or negative trend in population development. The probability of colonisation was higher in well-connected trees with characteristics reflecting earlier successional stages, and the probability of extinction higher in trees with larger diameter (i.e. in later successional stages), which is expected from a habitat-tracking metapopulation. The annual tree mortality and fall rates (1.1% and 0.4%, respectively) are lower than the colonisation and extinction rates (5-7%), indicating that some of the metapopulation dynamics are due to the habitat dynamics, but many colonisations and extinctions take place for other reasons, such as stochastic events in small populations. The studied metapopulation occurs in an area with a high density of hollow oaks and where the oak pastures are still managed by grazing. In stands with fewer than ten suitable trees, the long-term extinction risk may be considerable, since only a small proportion of all hollow trees harbours large populations, and the population size in trees may change considerably during a decade

Förvirring – en framgångsrik metod att kontrollera inomhuslevande mottfjärilar

Förvirring – en framgångsrik metod att kontrollera inomhuslevande mottfjärilar, Vad vi kan finna i maten: Tre mycket vanliga mottfjärilar, kvarnmott (Ephestia kuehniella), mandelmott (Ephestia cautella) och indiskt mjölmott (Plodia interpunctella) angriper matprodukter över hela världen och orsakar stor skada i fabriker, lagerlokaler och i hem. Fram till väldigt nyligen bekämpades angrepp med kemiska bekämpningsmedel, t.ex. med metylbromid. En ökande insikt om mänsklig hälsovådlighet och insekters ökade resistens mot insekticider ledde till ett förbud mot användning av dessa kemikalier. Alternativa metoder krävs nu för att minska skadeinsekters angrepp. En alternativ metod är att använda feromoner. Feromoner och möjligheten att använda dem i kontrollsyfte: Innan parning avger honan hos alla de tre nämnda arterna en specifik doft (feromon) som attraherar hanar. De tre arternas feromon består av två till fyra olika ämnen som gör doften artspecifik (tillhör endast en art). Dessa närbesläktade mottfjärilar har emellertid samma huvudkomponent i sina feromoner ((Z,E)-9,12-tetradecadienylactetat) och denna ensam fungerar relativt väl för samtliga arter. ”Förvirring” är en metod som numera vinner mer och mer mark hos odlare över hela världen. Den övergripande hypotesen är att genom att sprida ut ett moln av det artspecifika doftämnet hindra hanen att hitta doftspåret till honan. Därigenom hindras parning och populationen minskar eller dör ut. Förvirringsmetoden används oftare utomhus i odlingar men dess effekt inomhus har inte hittills blivit undersökt. Vi redovisar här försök på hur förvirring har minskat antalet mottfjärilar i olika typer av lokaler, i kvarnar (kvarnmott), i husdjursfoderlager (Indiskt mjölmott) och i en chokladfabrik (mandelmott) och som tyder på att förvirring är en mycket lovande alternativ metod mot skadeangrepp av mottfjärilar. Förvirring i kvarnar och chokladfabriker: Tre kvarnar har behandlats med förvirring där populationsstorleken har mätts genom att räkna antalet fångade hanar i feromonfällor. Fällfångster minskade drastiskt i alla lokaler och jämförelser mellan år visar att metoden fungerar bättre under en längre tid (cirka 20 månader). Feromonkoncentrationen mättes med en bärbar elektroantennograf (EAG) som visade att feromonhalten ökade direkt efter uppsättandet av feromonavgivarna och att feromonet var jämnt fördelat över hela lokalerna. Färre mott kunde observeras i lokalerna och antalet kundreklamationer minskade under de år försöken pågick. I chokladfabriken kunde vi även fånga mandelmott i vattenfällor som ett oberoende mått på populationsstorleken. Fångster i dessa fällor visade en signifi kant nedgång av populationen av mandelmott. Av dessa förvirringsförsök kan vi sammanfatta att denna metod har stor möjlighet att, på ett miljövänligt sätt, kunna minska populationer av dessa tre inomhuslevande mottfjärilar

Dispersal and spatiotemporal distribution of Protapion fulvipes in white clover fields: implications for pest management

Yield loss caused by insect pests remains a substantial problem in agriculture. Chemical control, with potential negative effects on non-target organisms, is still the main tool for pest management. For pest species with limited dispersal capacity, rotation of the crop in time and space has potential as an alternative management measure. This is particularly important in organic farming, where most agrochemicals are prohibited, but also relevant as a complementary pest management strategy in conventional agriculture. Clover is an important crop used for animal feed and as green manure; however, seed-eating weevils can severely limit the seed yield. We hypothesized that the previous year's clover seed fields constitute the major sources of weevil pests. Consequently, a greater distance to, and a smaller pest load from, this source should reduce the number of weevils colonizing the new seed fields. To map population dynamics and dispersal range of Protapion fulvipes, an economically important seed weevil specialized on white clover, we conducted field studies over four years in 45 white clover seed fields. We found that P. fulvipes overwinters close to its source field and disperses to new fields in early spring the following year. Pest abundance increased with pest load in the previous year's seed field, but decreased by 68% per km distance to the previous year's field. Thus, separation of seed production fields between years by 2-3 km would create a spatiotemporal pest management tool to reduce the pest infestation below the estimated economic injury level