One Health drivers of antibacterial resistance: Quantifying the relative impacts of human, animal and environmental use and transmission

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData accessibility statement: All model code is open source and available for download on GitHub https://github.com/rdbooton/OHDARTmodelObjectives Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major global health security threat, with a disproportionate burden on lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is not understood how ‘One Health’, where human health is co-dependent on animal health and the environment, might impact the burden of ABR in LMICs. Thailand's 2017 “National Strategic Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance” (NSP-AMR) aims to reduce AMR morbidity by 50% through 20% reductions in human and 30% in animal antibacterial use (ABU). There is a need to understand the implications of such a plan within a One Health perspective. Methods A model of ABU, gut colonisation with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria and transmission was calibrated using estimates of the prevalence of ESBL-producing bacteria in Thailand. This model was used to project the reduction in human ABR over 20 years (2020–2040) for each One Health driver, including individual transmission rates between humans, animals and the environment, and to estimate the long-term impact of the NSP-AMR intervention. Results The model predicts that human ABU was the most important factor in reducing the colonisation of humans with resistant bacteria (maximum 65.7–99.7% reduction). The NSP-AMR is projected to reduce human colonisation by 6.0–18.8%, with more ambitious targets (30% reductions in human ABU) increasing this to 8.5–24.9%. Conclusions Our model provides a simple framework to explain the mechanisms underpinning ABR, suggesting that future interventions targeting the simultaneous reduction of transmission and ABU would help to control ABR more effectively in Thailand.Antimicrobial Resistance Cross Council Initiativ

Spatio-temporal patterns of leptospirosis in Thailand: is flooding a risk factor?

We studied the temporal and spatial patterns of leptospirosis, its association with flooding and animal census data in Thailand. Flood data from 2010 to 2012 were extracted from spatial information taken from satellite images. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was used to determine the relationship between spatio-temporal flooding patterns and the number of human leptospirosis cases. In addition, the area of flood coverage, duration of waterlogging, time lags between flood events, and a number of potential animal reservoirs were considered in a sub-analysis. There was no significant temporal trend of leptospirosis over the study period. Statistical analysis showed an inconsistent relationship between IRR and flooding across years and regions. Spatially, leptospirosis occurred repeatedly and predominantly in northeastern Thailand. Our findings suggest that flooding is less influential in leptospirosis transmission than previously assumed. High incidence of the disease in the northeastern region is explained by the fact that agriculture and animal farming are important economic activities in this area. The periodic rise and fall of reported leptospirosis cases over time might be explained by seasonal exposure from rice farming activities performed during the rainy season when flood events often occur. We conclude that leptospirosis remains an occupational disease in Thailand. </p

Development of a dengue virus serotype-specific non-structural protein 1 capture immunochromatography method

Four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV), type 1 to 4 (DENV-1 to DENV-4), exhibit approximately 25–40% of the difference in the encoded amino acid residues of viral proteins. Reverse transcription of RNA extracted from specimens followed by PCR amplification is the current standard method of DENV serotype determination. However, since this method is time-consuming, rapid detection systems are desirable. We established several mouse monoclonal antibodies directed against DENV non-structural protein 1 and integrated them into rapid DENV detection systems. We successfully developed serotype-specific immunochromatography systems for all four DENV serotypes. Each system can detect 104 copies/mL in 15 min using laboratory and clinical isolates of DENV. No cross-reaction between DENV serotypes was observed in these DENV isolates. We also confirmed that there was no cross-reaction with chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, Sindbis, and Zika viruses. Evaluation of these systems using serum from DENV-infected individuals indicated a serotype specificity of almost 100%. These assay systems could accelerate both DENV infection diagnosis and epidemiologic studies in DENV-endemic areas

Tailoring information provision and consent processes to research contexts: the value of rapid assessments

Guidance requires that consent processes for research be appropriately tailored to their cultural context. This paper discusses the use of rapid assessments to identify cultural and ethical issues arising when explaining research in studies in The Gambia and Ethiopia. The assessments provided insights into appropriate ways of providing information to minimize the risk of stigmatizing vulnerable research populations; research participants' views about the most important information to provide about research and their understandings of research; and perceived constraints upon reaching voluntary decisions about participation. These insights demonstrate that rapid assessments are a relatively quick and inexpensive intervention that can provide valuable information to assist in the tailoring of information provision and consent processes to research context while maintaining and enhancing participants' fundamental protections

Geographical and temporal distribution of the residual clusters of human leptospirosis in China, 2005–2016

Human leptospirosis outbreaks still persistently occur in part of China, indicating that leptospirosis remains an important zoonotic disease in the country. Spatiotemporal pattern of the high-risk leptospirosis cluster and the key characteristics of high-risk areas for leptospirosis across the country are still poorly understood. Using spatial analytical approaches, we analyzed 8,158 human leptospirosis cases notified during 2005-2016 across China to explore the geographical distribution of leptospirosis hotspots and to characterize demographical, ecological and socioeconomic conditions of high-risk counties for leptospirosis in China. During the period studied, leptospirosis incidence was geographically clustered with the highest rate observed in the south of the Province of Yunnan. The degree of spatial clustering decreased over time suggesting changes in local risk factors. However, we detected residual high-risk counties for leptospirosis including counties in the southwest, central, and southeast China. High-risk counties differed from low-risk counties in terms of its demographical, ecological and socioeconomic characteristics. In high-risk clusters, leptospirosis was predominantly observed on younger population, more males and farmers. Additionally, high-risk counties are characterized by larger rural and less developed areas, had less livestock density and crops production, and located at higher elevation with higher level of precipitation compare to low-risk counties. In conclusion, leptospirosis distribution in China appears to be highly clustered to a discrete number of counties highlighting opportunities for elimination; hence, public health interventions should be effectively targeted to high-risk counties identified in this study