Early school failure predicts teenage pregnancy and marriage: A large population-based cohort study in northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: School dropout has been linked to early pregnancy and marriage but less is known about the effect of school performance. We aimed to assess whether school performance influenced age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage, and from what age school drop-out and performance were associated with these later life events. METHODS: Data from 2007-2016 from a demographic surveillance site in northern Malawi with annual updating of schooling status and grades, and linked sexual behaviour surveys, were analysed to assess the associations of age-specific school performance (measured as age-for-grade) and status (in or out of school) on subsequent age at sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. Landmark analysis with Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage by schooling at selected (landmark) ages, controlling for socio-economic factors. RESULTS: Information on at least one outcome was available for >16,000 children seen at ages 10-18. Sexual debut was available on a subset aged ≥15 by 2011. For girls, being out of school was strongly associated with earlier sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. For example, using schooling status at age 14, compared to girls in primary, those who had dropped out had adjusted hazard ratios of subsequent sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage of 5.39 (95% CI 3.27-8.86), 2.39 (1.82-3.12), and 2.76 (2.08-3.67) respectively. For boys, the equivalent association with sexual debut was weak, 1.92 (0.81-4.55), but that with marriage was strong, 3.74 (2.28-6.11), although boys married later. Being overage-for-grade was not associated with sexual debut for girls or boys. For girls, being overage-for-grade from age 10 was associated with earlier pregnancy and marriage (e.g. adjusted hazard ratio 2.84 (1.32-6.17) for pregnancy and 3.19 (1.47-6.94) for marriage, for those ≥3 years overage compared to those on track at age 10). For boys, overage-for-grade was associated with earlier marriage from age 12, with stronger associations at older ages (e.g. adjusted hazard ratio 2.41 (1.56-3.70) for those ≥3 years overage compared to those on track at age 14). For girls ≥3 years overage at age 14, 39% were pregnant before they were 18, compared to 18% of those who were on track. The main limitation was the use of reported ages of sexual debut, pregnancy and marriage. CONCLUSIONS: School progression at ages as young as 10 can predict teenage pregnancy and marriage, even after adjusting for socio-economic factors. Early education interventions may reduce teenage pregnancy and marriage as well as improving learning

Does early linear growth failure influence later school performance? A cohort study in Karonga district, northern Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Stunting or linear growth retardation in childhood is associated with delayed cognitive development due to related causes (malnutrition, illness, poor stimulation), which leads to poor school outcomes at later ages, although evidence of the association between the timing and persistence of stunting and school outcomes within the sub-Saharan African context is limited. METHODS: Anthropometric data around birth (0-4 months), early (11-16 months) and late childhood (ages 4-8 years) along with school outcomes up until the age of 11 were analysed for a cohort of 1,044 respondents, born between 2002-2004 in Karonga district, northern Malawi. The schooling outcomes were age at school enrolment, grade repetition in Standard 1 and age-for-grade by age 11. Height-for-Age Z-scores (HAZ) and growth trajectories were examined as predictors, based on stunting (<-2SD HAZ) and on trajectories between early and late childhood (never stunted, improvers, decliners or persistently stunted). Multinomial and logistic regression were used to estimate the association between stunting/trajectories and schooling, adjusted for socioeconomic confounders. RESULTS: The effects of stunting on schooling were evident in early childhood but were more pronounced in late childhood. Children who were stunted in early childhood (9.3%) were less likely to be underage at enrolment, more likely to repeat Standard 1 and were 2-3 times more likely to be overage for their grade by the age of 11, compared to their non-stunted peers. Those persistently stunted between early and late childhood (7.3%) faced the worst consequences on schooling, being three times as likely to enrol late and 3-5 times more likely to be overage for their grade by the age of 11, compared to those never stunted. Compared to improvers, those persistently stunted were three times as likely to be overage by two or more years by the age of 11, with no effect on enrolment or repetition. CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm the importance of early childhood stunting on schooling outcomes and suggest some mitigation by improvements in growth by the age of starting school. The nutritional and learning needs of those persistently stunted may need to be prioritised in future interventions

Failing to progress or progressing to fail? Age-for-grade heterogeneity and grade repetition in primary schools in Karonga district, northern Malawi.

Timely progression through school is an important measure for school performance, completion and the onset of other life transitions for adolescents. This study examines the risk factors for grade repetition and establishes the extent to which age-for-grade heterogeneity contributes to subsequent grade repetition at early and later stages of school. Using data from a demographic surveillance site in Karonga district, northern Malawi, a cohort of 8174 respondents (ages 5-24 years) in primary school was followed in 2010 and subsequent grade repetition observed in 2011. Grade repetition was more common among those at early (grades 1-3) and later (grades 7-8) stages of school, with little variation by sex. Being under-age or over-age in school has different implications on schooling outcomes, depending on the stage of schooling. After adjusting for other risk factors, boys and girls who were under-age at early stages were at least twice as likely to repeat a grade as those at the official age-for-grade (girls: adjusted OR 2.06 p < 0.01; boys: adjusted OR 2.37 p < 0.01); while those over-age at early stages were about 30% less likely to repeat (girls: adjusted OR 0.65 p < 0.01; boys: adjusted OR 0.72 p < 0.01). Being under/over-age at later grades (4-8) was not associated with subsequent repetition but being over-age was associated with dropout. Other risk factors identified that were associated with repetition included both family-level factors (living away from their mother, having young children in the household, lower paternal education) and school-level factors (higher student-teacher ratio, proportion of female teachers and schools without access to water). Reducing direct and indirect costs of schooling for households; and improving school quality and resources at early stages of school may enable timely progression at early stages for greater retention at later stages

Lusting, learning and lasting in school: sexual debut, school performance and dropout among adolescents in primary schools in Karonga district, northern Malawi.

Age at sexual debut is known to have implications for future sexual behaviours and health outcomes, including HIV infection, early pregnancy and maternal mortality, but may also influence educational outcomes. Longitudinal data on schooling and sexual behaviour from a demographic surveillance site in Karonga district, northern Malawi, were analysed for 3153 respondents between the ages of 12 and 25 years to examine the association between sexual debut and primary school dropout, and the role of prior school performance. Time to dropout was modelled using the Fine and Gray survival model to account for the competing event of primary school completion. To deal with the time-varying nature of age at sexual debut and school performance, models were fitted using landmark analyses. Sexual debut was found to be associated with a five-fold increase in rate of subsequent dropout for girls and a two-fold increase in dropout rate for boys (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] of 5.27, CI 4.22-6.57, and 2.19, CI 1.77-2.7, respectively). For girls who were sexually active by age 16, only 16% ultimately completed primary schooling, compared with 70% aged 18 or older at sexual debut. Prior to sexual debut, girls had primary completion levels similar to those of boys. The association between sexual debut and school dropout could not be explained by prior poor school performance: the effect of sexual debut on dropout was as strong among those who were not behind in school as among those who were overage for their school grade. Girls who were sexually active were more likely to repeat a grade, with no effect being seen for boys. Pathways to dropout are complex and may differ for boys and girls. Interventions are needed to improve school progression so children complete primary school before sexual debut, and to improve sex education and contraception provision

Effects of exclusive breastfeeding on educational attainment and longitudinal trajectories of grade progression among children in a 13-year follow-up study in Malawi

The benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for infant health and survival are well documented. However, its impact on educational outcomes has been contested and poorly researched in Africa. It has been hypothesised that positive associations reported in high-income countries can be attributed to residual confounding by socioeconomic status (SES). Our study investigated whether EBF duration in infancy is associated with educational attainment and age-for-grade attainment trajectories at school-age in rural Malawi. Longitudinal data on 1021 children at the Karonga demographic surveillance site in Malawi were analysed. Breastfeeding data were collected 3 months after birth and again at age one. The school grade of each child was recorded each year from age 6 until age 13. We calculated age-for-grade based on whether a child was at, over, or under the official expected age for a grade. Generalised estimating equations estimated the average effect of breastfeeding on age-for-grade. Latent class growth analysis identified age-for-grade trajectories, and multinomial logistic regression examined their associations with EBF. Maternal-child characteristics, SES, and HIV status were controlled. Overall, 35.9% of the children were exclusively breastfed for 6 months. Over-age for grade steadily increased from 9.6% at age 8 to 41.9% at age 13. There was some evidence that EBF for 6 months was associated with lower odds of being over-age for grade than EBF for less than 3 months (aOR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.64-1.06). In subgroup analyses, children exclusively breastfed for 6 months in infancy were less likely to be over-age for grades between ages 6-9 (aOR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.43-0.94). Latent class growth analysis also provided some evidence that EBF reduced the odds of falling behind in the early school grades (aOR = 0.66, 95%CI = 0.41-1.08) but not later. Our study adds to the growing evidence that EBF for 6 months has benefits beyond infant health and survival, supporting the WHO's recommendation on EBF

Cumulative proportion ever (a) sexually active (b) pregnant or (c) married by age for grade of girls at landmark age 14.

<p>Restricted to those who were in school at age 14 and not yet had the outcome in question.</p

Proportion of girls (a) pregnant and (b) married before age 18, conditional on being in school and on school grade at different landmark ages.

<p>Proportion of girls (a) pregnant and (b) married before age 18, conditional on being in school and on school grade at different landmark ages.</p

Cumulative proportion ever (a) sexually active (b) pregnant or (c) married by schooling status of girls at landmark age 14.

<p>Restricted to those who had not yet had the outcome in question.</p

Associations between schooling status and time to sexual debut and marriage for boys at different landmark ages.

<p>Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are shown, compared to those in primary school.</p

Associations between age-for-grade and time to sexual debut and marriage for boys at different landmark ages.

<p>Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are shown, compared to those at age or younger.</p