Dynamic Tensor Clustering

Dynamic tensor data are becoming prevalent in numerous applications. Existing tensor clustering methods either fail to account for the dynamic nature of the data, or are inapplicable to a general-order tensor. Also there is often a gap between statistical guarantee and computational efficiency for existing tensor clustering solutions. In this article, we aim to bridge this gap by proposing a new dynamic tensor clustering method, which takes into account both sparsity and fusion structures, and enjoys strong statistical guarantees as well as high computational efficiency. Our proposal is based upon a new structured tensor factorization that encourages both sparsity and smoothness in parameters along the specified tensor modes. Computationally, we develop a highly efficient optimization algorithm that benefits from substantial dimension reduction. In theory, we first establish a non-asymptotic error bound for the estimator from the structured tensor factorization. Built upon this error bound, we then derive the rate of convergence of the estimated cluster centers, and show that the estimated clusters recover the true cluster structures with a high probability. Moreover, our proposed method can be naturally extended to co-clustering of multiple modes of the tensor data. The efficacy of our approach is illustrated via simulations and a brain dynamic functional connectivity analysis from an Autism spectrum disorder study.Comment: Accepted at Journal of the American Statistical Associatio

Provable Sparse Tensor Decomposition

We propose a novel sparse tensor decomposition method, namely Tensor Truncated Power (TTP) method, that incorporates variable selection into the estimation of decomposition components. The sparsity is achieved via an efficient truncation step embedded in the tensor power iteration. Our method applies to a broad family of high dimensional latent variable models, including high dimensional Gaussian mixture and mixtures of sparse regressions. A thorough theoretical investigation is further conducted. In particular, we show that the final decomposition estimator is guaranteed to achieve a local statistical rate, and further strengthen it to the global statistical rate by introducing a proper initialization procedure. In high dimensional regimes, the obtained statistical rate significantly improves those shown in the existing non-sparse decomposition methods. The empirical advantages of TTP are confirmed in extensive simulated results and two real applications of click-through rate prediction and high-dimensional gene clustering.Comment: To Appear in JRSS-

Utility Theory of Synthetic Data Generation

Synthetic data algorithms are widely employed in industries to generate artificial data for downstream learning tasks. While existing research primarily focuses on empirically evaluating utility of synthetic data, its theoretical understanding is largely lacking. This paper bridges the practice-theory gap by establishing relevant utility theory in a statistical learning framework. It considers two utility metrics: generalization and ranking of models trained on synthetic data. The former is defined as the generalization difference between models trained on synthetic and on real data. By deriving analytical bounds for this utility metric, we demonstrate that the synthetic feature distribution does not need to be similar as that of real data for ensuring comparable generalization of synthetic models, provided proper model specifications in downstream learning tasks. The latter utility metric studies the relative performance of models trained on synthetic data. In particular, we discover that the distribution of synthetic data is not necessarily similar as the real one to ensure consistent model comparison. Interestingly, consistent model comparison is still achievable even when synthetic responses are not well generated, as long as downstream models are separable by a generalization gap. Finally, extensive experiments on non-parametric models and deep neural networks have been conducted to validate these theoretical findings

Contextual Dynamic Pricing with Strategic Buyers

Personalized pricing, which involves tailoring prices based on individual characteristics, is commonly used by firms to implement a consumer-specific pricing policy. In this process, buyers can also strategically manipulate their feature data to obtain a lower price, incurring certain manipulation costs. Such strategic behavior can hinder firms from maximizing their profits. In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem with strategic buyers. The seller does not observe the buyer's true feature, but a manipulated feature according to buyers' strategic behavior. In addition, the seller does not observe the buyers' valuation of the product, but only a binary response indicating whether a sale happens or not. Recognizing these challenges, we propose a strategic dynamic pricing policy that incorporates the buyers' strategic behavior into the online learning to maximize the seller's cumulative revenue. We first prove that existing non-strategic pricing policies that neglect the buyers' strategic behavior result in a linear $\Omega(T)$ regret with $T$ the total time horizon, indicating that these policies are not better than a random pricing policy. We then establish that our proposed policy achieves a sublinear regret upper bound of $O(\sqrt{T})$. Importantly, our policy is not a mere amalgamation of existing dynamic pricing policies and strategic behavior handling algorithms. Our policy can also accommodate the scenario when the marginal cost of manipulation is unknown in advance. To account for it, we simultaneously estimate the valuation parameter and the cost parameter in the online pricing policy, which is shown to also achieve an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret bound. Extensive experiments support our theoretical developments and demonstrate the superior performance of our policy compared to other pricing policies that are unaware of the strategic behaviors