Domestic support and the WTO negotiations

In their attempt to maximise trade benefits, agricultural trade negotiators must allocate scarce resources and consider trade‐offs across issues such as liberalising foreign border measures or reducing foreign domestic subsidies. Analysis and examples support the notion that more liberalisation will be achieved in the new WTO round by emphasis on lowering border barriers and export subsidies rather than attempting to discipline domestic farm subsidies directly. Analyses of EU grain policy, Korean rice policy and US sugar policy show how reduced export subsidy or more import access have substantial trade benefits, even if farmers are compensated with payments or price supports.International Relations/Trade,

THE COMPETITIVE POSITION OF SOUTHERN COMMODITIES: SOME TRENDS AND UNDERLYING FORCES

International Relations/Trade,

The Evolving Composition of Poverty in Middle-income Countries: the Case of Indonesia, 1991–2007

This paper discusses the evolution of education and health poverty in middle-income countries using the case of Indonesia. the paper reviews the long-run empirical research on poverty in Indonesia published over the last decade since the asian financial crisis. the paper then provides new, long-run estimates of the evolution of primary education and infant mortality using the demographic and health survey (dhs) for Indonesia for 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002/3 and 2007, in order to elicit the evolution of the composition of education and health poverty. the intended value-added of the paper is two-fold. first, the paper has a longitudinal element: such a comparative study using repeated dhs cross-sections has not previously been undertaken in published independent scholarly studies for Indonesia with a view to analyzing the evolving level and composition of education and health poverty and disparities over the period across these five datasets. second, the paper contributes to ongoing discussions on nonincome poverty trends in middle-income countries and Indonesia in particular and debates on nonincome poverty disparities by spatial and social characteristics of the household head. the study of education and health poverty in Indonesia, as a middle-income country, can provide insights into the evolution of poverty by education and health during economic development in newly middle-income countries. the Indonesian case suggests that poverty–by the measures used in this paper–may urbanize but remains largely rural in nature, and may increasingly be concentrated in the poorest wealth quintile over time. however, at the same time poverty remains concentrated among those in households with heads that have no or incomplete primary education and in households with heads not working or self-employed in agriculture. key words: Indonesia; poverty; education; health; inequality; economic development

Effects of the WTO and Free Trade Agreements on Japonica Rice Markets

Three trade policy changes underway and on the horizon have the prospect to alter global markets for japonica rice. This paper considers likely global market effects of expansion of access into the market in Japan and Korea, and reduced subsidy for japonica rice (among other crops) in the United States. We consider these policy changes in the context of a proposed Doha Development Agenda WTO agreement and one potential outcome of the proposed Free Trade Agreement between Korea and the United States (KUS-FTA). We use an equilibrium displacement model to ask how market prices, quantities and other aggregates change as a result of policy changes. The global model includes six aggregates in the world market, China, Korea, Japan, the United States, other exporters and other importers. Under the WTO scenario that U.S. subsidies decrease by 25 percent in addition to the full implementation of quota expansion in Korea and Japan, our results indicate that: 1) U.S. production falls by about 16 percent, and U.S. exports fall by about 51 percent, 2) the world price rises by about 1 percent, and 3) China's exports increase about 43 percent. If no WTO agreement occurs, there would be no expansion of Japan's imports and no reduction in U.S. rice subsidy even though Korea must still expand its WTO-multilateral quota. A KUS-FTA is likely to add a country-specific U.S. quota of another 4 percent of domestic consumption. In this case, world prices rise by only 0.3 percent. In general, world price effects are small and this is mainly due to the strong Chinese supply response. However, it is important to note that the associated changes in Chinese japonica rice production are at most about one percent of the Chinese baseline production. This implies the dominant role of China in the world japonica rice market.Japonica rice, WTO, import access, FTA, domestic subsidies, policy simulation, International Development, Q17, Q18, F13,

Modeling Staple Food Consumption: Measuring the Trade Effect on Food Security for Chinese Grain Farmers

This paper derives a simulation model that examines the food security of the grain producing households in China in an open border model regime. We define a food inadequacy index (F.I.) to measure the change of the food security status under alternative scenarios of border liberalization for the households. We conclude that if opening the border of grain market is followed by a more variable grain price distribution, the food security status will deteriorate for the low-income households on average. However, if border liberalization is followed by a decrease in mean of the price distribution, even with a more variable distribution, the food security status improves.International Relations/Trade,

POLICY RISK: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF A MARKET FOR A GOVERNMENT-CREATED ASSET

This paper investigates the California dairy quota. The quota rate of return has been relatively high. The variability of returns is high relative to government bonds but not relative to the S&P500. Most of the returns are from monthly dividends, but most of the variability is from the capital gains.Livestock Production/Industries,