The Genetic Interpretation of Area under the ROC Curve in Genomic Profiling

Genome-wide association studies in human populations have facilitated the creation of genomic profiles which combine the effects of many associated genetic variants to predict risk of disease. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is a well established measure for determining the efficacy of tests in correctly classifying diseased and non-diseased individuals. We use quantitative genetics theory to provide insight into the genetic interpretation of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) when the test classifier is a predictor of genetic risk. Even when the proportion of genetic variance explained by the test is 100%, there is a maximum value for AUC that depends on the genetic epidemiology of the disease, i.e. either the sibling recurrence risk or heritability and disease prevalence. We derive an equation relating maximum AUC to heritability and disease prevalence. The expression can be reversed to calculate the proportion of genetic variance explained given AUC, disease prevalence, and heritability. We use published estimates of disease prevalence and sibling recurrence risk for 17 complex genetic diseases to calculate the proportion of genetic variance that a test must explain to achieve AUC = 0.75; this varied from 0.10 to 0.74. We provide a genetic interpretation of AUC for use with predictors of genetic risk based on genomic profiles. We provide a strategy to estimate proportion of genetic variance explained on the liability scale from estimates of AUC, disease prevalence, and heritability (or sibling recurrence risk) available as an online calculator

Tandospirone activates neuroendocrine and ERK (MAP kinase) signaling pathways specifically through 5-HT1A receptor mechanisms in vivo

Tandospirone, an azapirone, is a selective serotonin(1A) (5-HT1A) receptor agonist. The effects of tandospirone on plasma hormones and on mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase activity in the brain of male rats were studied. Tandospirone produced a time- and dose-dependent increase in plasma levels of oxytocin, adrenocorticotropin (ACTH), corticosterone, and prolactin. The minimal dose of tandospirone that led to a significant elevation of plasma oxytocin, ACTH, and prolactin levels was 1.0 mg/kg (s.c.), while the minimal dose for corticosterone release was 3.0 mg/kg (s.c.). The ED50 of tandospirone was 1.3 mg/kg for oxytocin, 1.2 mg/kg for ACTH, 3.0 mg/kg for corticosterone, and 0.24 mg/kg for prolactin. Pretreatment with the specific 5-HT1A receptor antagonist WAY 100,635 (0.3 mg/kg, s.c.) completely blocked the effects of tandospirone on plasma levels of oxytocin, ACTH, and corticosterone but shifted the dose-response curve for prolactin to the right. Tandospirone injection (10 mg/kg, s.c.) stimulated the MAP kinase signaling cascade, specifically the phosphorylation of p42/44 extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK). Western blot analysis revealed a significant increase in phosphorylated ERK (p-ERK) levels in the hypothalamic paraventricular nucleus (PVN) as well as the dorsal raphe nucleus 5 min following tandospirone injection. These increases were blocked by pretreatment with WAY 100,635 (0.3 mg/kg). The results are the first evidence that systemic 5-HT1A receptor agonist administration produces a rapid increase in p-ERK levels in vivo, providing further insight into the signaling mechanisms of the 5-HT1A receptor