Drug prescriptions and dementia incidence: a medication-wide association study of 17000 dementia cases among half a million participants

Previous studies have suggested that some medications may influence dementia risk. We conducted a hypothesis-generating medication-wide association study to investigate systematically the association between all prescription medications and incident dementia. We used a population-based cohort within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank, comprising routinely-collected primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data from Wales, UK. We included all participants born after 1910 and registered with a SAIL general practice at ≤60 years old. Follow-up was from each participant's 60th birthday to the earliest of dementia diagnosis, deregistration from a SAIL general practice, death or the end of 2018. We considered participants exposed to a medication if they received ≥1 prescription for any of 744 medications before or during follow-up. We adjusted for sex, smoking and socioeconomic status. The outcome was any all-cause dementia code in primary care, hospital or mortality data during follow-up. We used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios and Bonferroni-corrected p values. Of 551 344 participants, 16 998 (3%) developed dementia (median follow-up was 17 years for people who developed dementia, 10 years for those without dementia). Of 744 medications, 221 (30%) were associated with dementia. Of these, 217 (98%) were associated with increased dementia incidence, many clustering around certain indications. Four medications (all vaccines) were associated with a lower dementia incidence. Almost a third of medications were associated with dementia. The clustering of many drugs around certain indications may provide insights into early manifestations of dementia. We encourage further investigation of hypotheses generated by these results. [Abstract copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.

Identifying dementia cases with routinely collected health data: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Prospective, population-based studies can be rich resources for dementia research. Follow-up in many such studies is through linkage to routinely collected, coded health-care data sets. We evaluated the accuracy of these data sets for dementia case identification. METHODS: We systematically reviewed the literature for studies comparing dementia coding in routinely collected data sets to any expert-led reference standard. We recorded study characteristics and two accuracy measures-positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity. RESULTS: We identified 27 eligible studies with 25 estimating PPV and eight estimating sensitivity. Study settings and methods varied widely. For all-cause dementia, PPVs ranged from 33%-100%, but 16/27 were >75%. Sensitivities ranged from 21% to 86%. PPVs for Alzheimer's disease (range 57%-100%) were generally higher than those for vascular dementia (range 19%-91%). DISCUSSION: Linkage to routine health-care data can achieve a high PPV and reasonable sensitivity in certain settings. Given the heterogeneity in accuracy estimates, cohorts should ideally conduct their own setting-specific validation

Antipsychotic drug prescribing and mortality in people with dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic:a retrospective cohort study in Wales, UK

BackgroundConcerns have been raised that antipsychotic drug prescribing, which has been associated with increased mortality in people with dementia, might have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to social restrictions imposed to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used multisource, routinely collected health-care data from Wales, UK to investigate prescribing and mortality variations in people with dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we used individual-level, anonymised, population-scale linked health data to identify adults aged 60 years and older with a diagnosis of dementia in Wales, UK. We used the CVD-COVID-UK initiative to access Welsh routinely collected electronic health record data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Patients who were alive and registered with a SAIL general practice on Jan 1, 2016, and who received a dementia diagnosis before the age of 60 years and before or during the study period were included. We explored antipsychotic drug prescribing rate changes over 67 months, between Jan 1, 2016, and Aug 1, 2021, overall and stratified by age and dementia subtype. We used time-series analyses to examine all-cause and myocardial infarction and stroke mortality over the study period and identified the leading causes of death in people with dementia between Jan 1, 2020, and Aug 1, 2021.FindingsOf 3 106 690 participants in SAIL between Jan 1, 2016 and Aug 1, 2021, 57 396 people (35 148 [61·2%] women and 22 248 [38·8%] men) met inclusion criteria for this study and contributed 101 428 person-years of follow-up. Of the 57 396 people with dementia, 11 929 (20·8%) were prescribed an antipsychotic drug at any point during follow-up. Accounting for seasonality, antipsychotic drug prescribing increased during the second half of 2019 and throughout 2020. However, the absolute difference in prescribing rates was small, ranging from 1253 prescriptions per 10 000 person-months in March, 2019, to 1305 per 10 000 person-months in September, 2020. All-cause mortality and stroke mortality increased throughout 2020, while myocardial infarction mortality declined. From Jan 1, 2020, to Aug 1, 2021, 1286 (17·1%) of 7508 participants who died had COVID-19 recorded as the underlying cause of death.InterpretationDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, antipsychotic drug prescribing in people with dementia in the UK increased slightly; however, it is unlikely that this was solely related to the pandemic and this increase was unlikely to be a major factor in the substantial increase in mortality during 2020. The long-term increase in antipsychotic drug prescribing in younger people and in those with Alzheimer's disease warrants further investigation using resources with access to more granular clinical data. Although deprescribing antipsychotic medications remains an essential aspect of dementia care, the results of this study suggest that changes in prescribing and deprescribing practices as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic are not required.FundingBritish Heart Foundation (via the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre led by Health Data Research UK), and the Scottish Neurological Research Fund

Genome-Wide Meta-analysis identifies three novel loci associated with stroke

We conducted a European‐only and transancestral genome‐wide association meta‐analysis in 72,147 stroke patients and 823,869 controls using data from UK Biobank (UKB) and the MEGASTROKE consortium. We identified an exonic polymorphism in NOS3 (rs1799983, p.Glu298Asp; p = 2.2E‐8, odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04–1.07) and variants in an intron of COL4A1 (rs9521634; p = 3.8E‐8, OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.03–1.06) and near DYRK1A (rs720470; p = 6.1E‐9, OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.03–1.07) at genome‐wide significance for stroke. Effect sizes of known stroke loci were highly correlated between UKB and MEGASTROKE. Using Mendelian randomization, we further show that genetic variation in the nitric oxide synthase–nitric oxide pathway in part affects stroke risk via variation in blood pressure

Identifying dementia outcomes in UK Biobank: a validation study of primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data.

Prospective, population-based studies that recruit participants in mid-life are valuable resources for dementia research. Follow-up in these studies is often through linkage to routinely-collected healthcare datasets. We investigated the accuracy of these datasets for dementia case ascertainment in a validation study using data from UK Biobank-an open access, population-based study of > 500,000 adults aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 2006-2010. From 17,198 UK Biobank participants recruited in Edinburgh, we identified those with ≥ 1 dementia code in their linked primary care, hospital admissions or mortality data and compared their coded diagnoses to clinical expert adjudication of their full-text medical record. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV, the proportion of cases identified that were true positives) for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia for each dataset alone and in combination, and explored algorithmic code combinations to improve PPV. Among 120 participants, PPVs for all-cause dementia were 86.8%, 87.3% and 80.0% for primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data respectively and 82.5% across all datasets. We identified three algorithms that balanced a high PPV with reasonable case ascertainment. For Alzheimer's disease, PPVs were 74.1% for primary care, 68.2% for hospital admissions, 50.0% for mortality data and 71.4% in combination. PPV for vascular dementia was 43.8% across all sources. UK routinely-collected healthcare data can be used to identify all-cause dementia in prospective studies. PPVs for Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia are lower. Further research is required to explore the geographic generalisability of these findings

Evaluation of antithrombotic use and COVID-19 outcomes in a nationwide atrial fibrillation cohort

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate antithrombotic (AT) use in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) and at high risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2) and investigate whether pre-existing AT use may improve COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: Individuals with AF and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 on 1 January 2020 were identified using electronic health records for 56 million people in England and were followed up until 1 May 2021. Factors associated with pre-existing AT use were analysed using logistic regression. Differences in COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death were analysed using logistic and Cox regression in individuals with pre-existing AT use versus no AT use, anticoagulants (AC) versus antiplatelets (AP), and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin. RESULTS: From 972 971 individuals with AF (age 79 (±9.3), female 46.2%) and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, 88.0% (n=856 336) had pre-existing AT use, 3.8% (n=37 418) had a COVID-19 hospitalisation and 2.2% (n=21 116) died, followed up to 1 May 2021. Factors associated with no AT use included comorbidities that may contraindicate AT use (liver disease and history of falls) and demographics (socioeconomic status and ethnicity). Pre-existing AT use was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96), but higher odds of hospitalisation (OR=1.20, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.26). AC versus AP was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.93, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.98) and higher hospitalisation (OR=1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24). For DOACs versus warfarin, lower odds were observed for hospitalisation (OR=0.86, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.89) but not for death (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-existing AT use may be associated with lower odds of COVID-19 death and, while not evidence of causality, provides further incentive to improve AT coverage for eligible individuals with AF

Adiposity and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke: Prospective study in women and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare associations of body mass index (BMI) with ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke risk, and to review the worldwide evidence. METHODS: We recruited 1.3 million previously stroke-free UK women between 1996 and 2001 (mean age 57 years [SD 5]) and followed them by record linkage for hospital admissions and deaths. We used Cox regression to estimate adjusted relative risks for ischemic and hemorrhagic (intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage) stroke in relation to BMI. We conducted a meta-analysis of published findings from prospective studies on these associations. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 11.7 years, there were 20,549 first strokes, of which 9,993 were specified as ischemic and 5,852 as hemorrhagic. Increased BMI was associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (relative risk 1.21 per 5 kg/m2 BMI, 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.23, p < 0.0001) but a decreased risk of hemorrhagic stroke (relative risk 0.89 per 5 kg/m2 BMI, 0.86-0.92, p < 0.0001). The BMI-associated trends for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were significantly different (heterogeneity: p < 0.0001) but were not significantly different for intracerebral hemorrhage (n = 2,790) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (n = 3,062) (heterogeneity: p = 0.5). Published data from prospective studies showed consistently greater BMI-associated relative risks for ischemic than hemorrhagic stroke with most evidence (prior to this study) coming from Asian populations. CONCLUSIONS: In UK women, higher BMI is associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke but decreased risk of hemorrhagic stroke. The totality of the available published evidence suggests that BMI-associated risks are greater for ischemic than for hemorrhagic stroke

Molecular genetic contributions to self-rated health

Poorer self-rated health (SRH) predicts worse health outcomes, even when adjusted for objective measures of disease at time of rating. Twin studies indicate SRH has a heritability of up to 60% and that its genetic architecture may overlap with that of personality and cognition.We carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of SRH on 111 749 members of the UK Biobank sample. Univariate genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA)-GREML analyses were used to estimate the proportion of variance explained by all common autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for SRH. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression and polygenic risk scoring, two complementary methods, were used to investigate pleiotropy between SRH in the UK Biobank and up to 21 health-related and personality and cognitive traits from published GWAS consortia.The GWAS identified 13 independent signals associated with SRH, including several in regions previously associated with diseases or disease-related traits. The strongest signal was on chromosome 2 (rs2360675, P = 1.77 x 10 -10 ) close to KLF7 . A second strong peak was identified on chromosome 6 in the major histocompatibility region (rs76380179, P = 6.15 x 10 -10 ). The proportion of variance in SRH that was explained by all common genetic variants was 13%. Polygenic scores for the following traits and disorders were associated with SRH: cognitive ability, education, neuroticism, body mass index (BMI), longevity, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), major depressive disorder, schizophrenia, lung function, blood pressure, coronary artery disease, large vessel disease stroke and type 2 diabetes.Individual differences in how people respond to a single item on SRH are partly explained by their genetic propensity to many common psychiatric and physical disorders and psychological traits

Evaluation of antithrombotic use and COVID-19 outcomes in a nationwide atrial fibrillation cohort

ObjectiveTo evaluate antithrombotic (AT) use in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) and at high risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2) and investigate whether pre-existing AT use may improve COVID-19 outcomes.MethodsIndividuals with AF and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 on 1 January 2020 were identified using electronic health records for 56 million people in England and were followed up until 1 May 2021. Factors associated with pre-existing AT use were analysed using logistic regression. Differences in COVID-19-related hospitalisation and death were analysed using logistic and Cox regression in individuals with pre-existing AT use versus no AT use, anticoagulants (AC) versus antiplatelets (AP), and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin.ResultsFrom 972 971 individuals with AF (age 79 (±9.3), female 46.2%) and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, 88.0% (n=856 336) had pre-existing AT use, 3.8% (n=37 418) had a COVID-19 hospitalisation and 2.2% (n=21 116) died, followed up to 1 May 2021. Factors associated with no AT use included comorbidities that may contraindicate AT use (liver disease and history of falls) and demographics (socioeconomic status and ethnicity). Pre-existing AT use was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96), but higher odds of hospitalisation (OR=1.20, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.26). AC versus AP was associated with lower odds of death (OR=0.93, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.98) and higher hospitalisation (OR=1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24). For DOACs versus warfarin, lower odds were observed for hospitalisation (OR=0.86, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.89) but not for death (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.05).ConclusionsPre-existing AT use may be associated with lower odds of COVID-19 death and, while not evidence of causality, provides further incentive to improve AT coverage for eligible individuals with AF

Impact of detecting potentially serious incidental findings during multi-modal imaging [version 3; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: There are limited data on the impact of feedback of incidental findings (IFs) from research imaging.  We evaluated the impact of UK Biobank’s protocol for handling potentially serious IFs in a multi-modal imaging study of 100,000 participants (radiographer ‘flagging’ with radiologist confirmation of potentially serious IFs) compared with systematic radiologist review of all images. Methods: Brain, cardiac and body magnetic resonance, and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry scans from the first 1000 imaged UK Biobank participants were independently assessed for potentially serious IFs using both protocols. We surveyed participants with potentially serious IFs and their GPs up to six months after imaging to determine subsequent clinical assessments, final diagnoses, emotional, financial and work or activity impacts. Results: Compared to systematic radiologist review, radiographer flagging resulted in substantially fewer participants with potentially serious IFs (179/1000 [17.9%] versus 18/1000 [1.8%]) and a higher proportion with serious final diagnoses (21/179 [11.7%] versus 5/18 [27.8%]). Radiographer flagging missed 16/21 serious final diagnoses (i.e., false negatives), while systematic radiologist review generated large numbers of non-serious final diagnoses (158/179) (i.e., false positives). Almost all (90%) participants had further clinical assessment (including invasive procedures in similar numbers with serious and non-serious final diagnoses [11 and 12 respectively]), with additional impact on emotional wellbeing (16.9%), finances (8.9%), and work or activities (5.6%). Conclusions: Compared with systematic radiologist review, radiographer flagging missed some serious diagnoses, but avoided adverse impacts for many participants with non-serious diagnoses. While systematic radiologist review may benefit some participants, UK Biobank’s responsibility to avoid both unnecessary harm to larger numbers of participants and burdening of publicly-funded health services suggests that radiographer flagging is a justifiable approach in the UK Biobank imaging study. The potential scale of non-serious final diagnoses raises questions relating to handling IFs in other settings, such as commercial and public health screening