Cash, and "Drops": Boosting vaccine registrations

Demand (registrations), supply (availability of vaccines), and throughput (administering of vaccines) are key determinants of the progress of vaccination drives globally, including Malaysia's National COVID-19 Immunisation Programme (Program Imunisasi COVID-19 Kebangsaan, PICK). This paper will focus on the first determinant - demand. Specifically, were major policy "shocks" effective in influencing vaccine registrations? Between 24 February 2021 to 14 June 2021 when the PICK was in progress, several interventions were applied in select districts and states. These provided "natural experiments" to assess the effect of certain policy interventions on vaccine demand. In this paper, we assess the effect of two types of interventions on vaccine registrations in the PICK programme in a difference-in-difference (DiD) and panel event study settings - (1) a cash transfer programme for vaccine recipients, and (2) two instances of parallel opt-in "first come, first serve" queues. Finally, we rationalise these findings in a simple model of individual demand with preference shocks

Uncertainty and Exchange Rates: Global Dynamics (Well, I Don't Quite Know Anymore)

This paper offers two points on the impact of uncertainty and exchange rate shocks on output. (1) A conceptual model where behavioural frictions --- rational inattentiveness and bounded expectations --- interact with uncertainty, generating aggregate fluctuations. Central banks can target these behaviourial frictions to stabilise output and prices. (2) Empirical findings from a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Output and inflation slow in response to uncertainty shocks. Government bond yields moderate and exchange rates depreciate, suggesting within-country and between-country flight-to-safety respectively. Exchange rate appreciation shocks generate similar responses. The Malaysia-specific analysis finds divergent responses in employment and output, likely reflecting compositional effects in more productive tradable and less productive non-tradable sectors

Expert review on global real-world vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2

Introduction COVID-19 vaccines have been highly effective in reducing morbidity and mortality during the pandemic. While primary series vaccination rates are generally high in Southeast Asian (SEA) countries, various factors have limited the rollout and impact of booster doses. Areas covered We reviewed 79 studies in the International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC) VIEW-hub platform on vaccine effectiveness (VE) after primary immunizations with two-dose schedules. VE data were reported for SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, and stratified across variants of concern, age, study design and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection for mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and combinations of both), vector vaccines (AstraZeneca, AZD1222 [ChAdOx1 nCoV-19] ‘Vaxzevria’), and inactivated virus vaccines (CoronaVac). Expert opinion The most-studied COVID-19 vaccines provide consistently high (>90%) protection against serious clinical outcomes like hospitalizations and deaths, regardless of variant. Additionally, this protection appears equivalent for mRNA vaccines and vector vaccines like AZD1222, as supported by our analysis of Asian and relevant international data, and by insights from SEA experts. Given the continued impact of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths on health-care systems worldwide, encouraging vaccination strategies that reduce this burden is more relevant than attempting to prevent broader but milder infections with specific variants, including Omicron

PICK-ing Malaysia’s Epidemic Apart: Effectiveness of a Diverse COVID-19 Vaccine Portfolio

Malaysia rolled out a diverse portfolio of predominantly three COVID-19 vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) beginning 24 February 2021. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness with two methods, covering 1 April to 15 September 2021: (1) the screening method for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic COVID-19; and (2) a retrospective cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases for COVID-19 related ICU admission and death using logistic regression. The screening method estimated partial vaccination to be 48.8% effective (95% CI: 46.8, 50.7) against COVID-19 infection and 33.5% effective (95% CI: 31.6, 35.5) against symptomatic COVID-19. Full vaccination is estimated at 87.8% effective (95% CI: 85.8, 89.7) against COVID-19 infection and 85.4% effective (95% CI: 83.4, 87.3) against symptomatic COVID-19. Among the cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases, partial vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 31.3% effective (95% CI: 28.5, 34.1) in preventing ICU admission, and 45.1% effective (95% CI: 42.6, 47.5) in preventing death. Full vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 79.1% effective (95% CI: 77.7, 80.4) in preventing ICU admission and 86.7% effective (95% CI: 85.7, 87.6) in preventing deaths. Our findings suggest that full vaccination with any of the three predominant vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) in Malaysia has been highly effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, COVID-19-related ICU admission, and death

Veiled Expectations: The Heterogeneous Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks at the Sectoral-Level

This paper examines the sectoral-level impact of nominal exchange rate shocks. I introduce a model where agents face bounded abilities to form expectations, and agents’ foresight depends directly on the state of financial stress. This leads to differential labour market responses to exchange rate movements. When financial stress is low, absent of shocks, exchange rate movements are minimal and pinned down by agents. When financial stress is salient, agents’ foresight is veiled; they fail to form reliable expectations during episodes of sharp depreciation. Workers and firms fail to adjust expected relative wages and future marginal profits respectively, leading to sub-optimal output. Using monthly sectoral data from Malaysia in Simultaneous Equations and Markov-Switching Models, I find heterogeneous labour market responses. In tradable sectors, labour flows were small and concentrated in the manufacturing sector. Likewise, adjustments in non-tradable sectors were small. On the extensive margin, labour market flows diverge between tradable and non-tradable sectors. On the intensive margin, labour market flows in tradable sectors reverse. In contrast, as the model predicts, non-tradable sectors do not react to substantial terms of trade shocks

Impact of Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Shocks: Theory and Global Empirics

This paper offers two points on the impact of uncertainty and exchange rate shocks. (1) A conceptual model where behavioural frictions --- rational inattentiveness and bounded expectations --- interact with uncertainty, generating aggregate fluctuations. Central banks can target these behavioural frictions to stabilise output and prices. (2) Empirical findings from a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Output and inflation slow in response to uncertainty shocks. Government bond yields moderate and exchange rates depreciate, suggesting within-country and between-country flight-to-safety respectively. Exchange rate appreciation shocks generate similar responses. The Malaysia-specific analysis finds divergent responses in employment and output, likely reflecting compositional effects in more productive tradable and less productive non-tradable sectors

Uncertainty and Exchange Rates: Global Dynamics (Well, I Don't Quite Know Anymore)

This paper offers two points on the impact of uncertainty and exchange rate shocks on output. (1) A conceptual model where behavioural frictions --- rational inattentiveness and bounded expectations --- interact with uncertainty, generating aggregate fluctuations. Central banks can target these behaviourial frictions to stabilise output and prices. (2) Empirical findings from a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Output and inflation slow in response to uncertainty shocks. Government bond yields moderate and exchange rates depreciate, suggesting within-country and between-country flight-to-safety respectively. Exchange rate appreciation shocks generate similar responses. The Malaysia-specific analysis finds divergent responses in employment and output, likely reflecting compositional effects in more productive tradable and less productive non-tradable sectors. In a panel fixed effects and quantile regression setting, I find indicative interaction between output, exchange rate and uncertainty, and a distributional dimension

PICK-ing Malaysia’s Epidemic Apart: Effectiveness of a Diverse COVID-19 Vaccine Portfolio

Malaysia rolled out a diverse portfolio of predominantly three COVID-19 vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) beginning 24 February 2021. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness with two methods, covering 1 April to 15 September 2021: (1) the screening method for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic COVID-19; and (2) a retrospective cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases for COVID-19 related ICU admission and death using logistic regression. The screening method estimated partial vaccination to be 48.8% effective (95% CI: 46.8, 50.7) against COVID-19 infection and 33.5% effective (95% CI: 31.6, 35.5) against symptomatic COVID-19. Full vaccination is estimated at 87.8% effective (95% CI: 85.8, 89.7) against COVID-19 infection and 85.4% effective (95% CI: 83.4, 87.3) against symptomatic COVID-19. Among the cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases, partial vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 31.3% effective (95% CI: 28.5, 34.1) in preventing ICU admission, and 45.1% effective (95% CI: 42.6, 47.5) in preventing death. Full vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 79.1% effective (95% CI: 77.7, 80.4) in preventing ICU admission and 86.7% effective (95% CI: 85.7, 87.6) in preventing deaths. Our findings suggest that full vaccination with any of the three predominant vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) in Malaysia has been highly effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, COVID-19-related ICU admission, and death