The Relationship Between Belief and Credence

Sometimes epistemologists theorize about belief, a tripartite attitude on which one can believe, withhold belief, or disbelieve a proposition. In other cases, epistemologists theorize about credence, a fine-grained attitude that represents one’s subjective probability or confidence level toward a proposition. How do these two attitudes relate to each other? This article explores the relationship between belief and credence in two categories: descriptive and normative. It then explains the broader significance of the belief-credence connection and concludes with general lessons from the debate thus far

Postdischarge interventions for children hospitalized with severe acute malnutrition: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Children hospitalized with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) have poor long-term outcomes following discharge, with high rates of mortality, morbidity, and impaired neurodevelopment. There is currently minimal guidance on how to support children with SAM following discharge from inpatient treatment. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to examine whether postdischarge interventions can improve outcomes in children recovering from complicated SAM. METHODS: Systematic searches of 4 databases were undertaken to identify studies of interventions delivered completely or partially after hospital discharge in children aged 6-59 mo, following inpatient treatment of SAM. The main outcome of interest was mortality. Random-effects meta-analysis was undertaken where ≥2 studies were sufficiently similar in intervention and outcome. RESULTS: Ten studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, recruiting 39-1781 participants in 7 countries between 1975 and 2015. Studies evaluated provision of zinc (2 studies), probiotics or synbiotics (2 studies), antibiotics (1 study), pancreatic enzymes (1 study), and psychosocial stimulation (4 studies). Six studies had unclear or high risk of bias in ≥2 domains. Compared with standard care, pancreatic enzyme supplementation reduced inpatient mortality (37.8% compared with 18.6%, P < 0.05). In meta-analysis there was some evidence that prebiotics or synbiotics reduced mortality (RR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.00; P = 0.049). Psychosocial stimulation reduced mortality in meta-analysis of the 2 trials reporting deaths (RR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.87), and improved neurodevelopmental scores in ≥1 domain in all studies. There was no evidence that zinc reduced mortality in the single study reporting deaths. Antibiotics reduced infectious morbidity but did not reduce mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Several biological and psychosocial interventions show promise in improving outcomes in children following hospitalization for SAM and require further exploration in larger randomized mortality trials. This study was registered with PROSPERO as CRD42018111342 (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=111342)

C-Reactive Protein (CRP) levels in neonatal meningitis in England: an analysis of national variations in CRP cut-offs for lumbar puncture.

BACKGROUND: Recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) CG149 guidelines suggest considering performing a lumbar puncture (LP) to investigate for meningitis in early-onset sepsis in a neonate when a C-reactive protein (CRP) level >10mg/L, but the evidence for this recommendation is poorly defined. METHODS: Data on trust-wide LP protocols, neonatal meningitis incidence, lumbar punctures, and CRP levels seen in cases of neonatal meningitis were asked of all 137 trusts in England that recorded a birth in 2017. Our local Kingston Hospital data on every LP performed was obtained to estimate the specificity of CRP rises. RESULTS: 73/123 (59.3%) of trusts follow the NICE CG149 recommendation of considering an LP if the CRP >10mg/L. The national incidence of neonatal meningitis was 0.467/1,000 births, and an LP was performed in 1.37% of all babies, which was significantly higher in trusts considering the CRP > 10mg/L cut-off. A CRP > 10mg/L cut-off sensitivity was 88.9% based on the highest CRP level 4 days around the LP from national data of 199 cases; specificity was 78.8% based on our single-unit analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Proposing a universal CRP > 10mg/L cut-off for a lumbar puncture has been counter-productive in England. Following it generates significantly more LPs, to the point that 40.7% of trusts have chosen not to follow it. It also has poor sensitivity missing over 11% of meningitis. We therefore do not recommend a universal cut-off, rather considering the whole clinical picture (including prematurity) when considering whether to do an LP

Can Modal Skepticism Defeat Humean Skepticism?

My topic is moderate modal skepticism in the spirit of Peter van Inwagen. Here understood, this is a conservative version of modal empiricism that severely limits the extent to which an ordinary agent can reasonably believe “exotic” possibility claims. I offer a novel argument in support of this brand of skepticism: modal skepticism grounds an attractive (and novel) reply to Humean skepticism. Thus, I propose that modal skepticism be accepted on the basis of its theoretical utility as a tool for dissolving philosophical paradox

Vascular Health in American Football Players: Cardiovascular Risk Increased in Division III Players

Studies report that football players have high blood pressure (BP) and increased cardiovascular risk. There are over 70,000 NCAA football players and 450 Division III schools sponsor football programs, yet limited research exists on vascular health of athletes. This study aimed to compare vascular and cardiovascular health measures between football players and nonathlete controls. Twenty-three athletes and 19 nonathletes participated. Vascular health measures included flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT). Cardiovascular measures included clinic and 24 hr BP levels, body composition, VO2 max, and fasting glucose/cholesterol levels. Compared to controls, football players had a worse vascular and cardiovascular profile. Football players had thicker carotid artery IMT (0.49 ± 0.06 mm versus 0.46 ± 0.07 mm) and larger brachial artery diameter during FMD (4.3 ± 0.5 mm versus 3.7 ± 0.6 mm), but no difference in percent FMD. Systolic BP was significantly higher in football players at all measurements: resting (128.2 ± 6.4 mmHg versus 122.4 ± 6.8 mmHg), submaximal exercise (150.4 ± 18.8 mmHg versus 137.3 ± 9.5 mmHg), maximal exercise (211.3 ± 25.9 mmHg versus 191.4 ± 19.2 mmHg), and 24-hour BP (124.9 ± 6.3 mmHg versus 109.8 ± 3.7 mmHg). Football players also had higher fasting glucose (91.6 ± 6.5 mg/dL versus 86.6 ± 5.8 mg/dL), lower HDL (36.5±11.2 mg/dL versus 47.1±14.8 mg/dL), and higher body fat percentage (29.2±7.9% versus 23.2±7.0%). Division III collegiate football players remain an understudied population and may be at increased cardiovascular risk

Simulating Cardiac Fluid Dynamics in the Human Heart

Cardiac fluid dynamics fundamentally involves interactions between complex blood flows and the structural deformations of the muscular heart walls and the thin, flexible valve leaflets. There has been longstanding scientific, engineering, and medical interest in creating mathematical models of the heart that capture, explain, and predict these fluid-structure interactions. However, existing computational models that account for interactions among the blood, the actively contracting myocardium, and the cardiac valves are limited in their abilities to predict valve performance, resolve fine-scale flow features, or use realistic descriptions of tissue biomechanics. Here we introduce and benchmark a comprehensive mathematical model of cardiac fluid dynamics in the human heart. A unique feature of our model is that it incorporates biomechanically detailed descriptions of all major cardiac structures that are calibrated using tensile tests of human tissue specimens to reflect the heart's microstructure. Further, it is the first fluid-structure interaction model of the heart that provides anatomically and physiologically detailed representations of all four cardiac valves. We demonstrate that this integrative model generates physiologic dynamics, including realistic pressure-volume loops that automatically capture isovolumetric contraction and relaxation, and predicts fine-scale flow features. None of these outputs are prescribed; instead, they emerge from interactions within our comprehensive description of cardiac physiology. Such models can serve as tools for predicting the impacts of medical devices or clinical interventions. They also can serve as platforms for mechanistic studies of cardiac pathophysiology and dysfunction, including congenital defects, cardiomyopathies, and heart failure, that are difficult or impossible to perform in patients