Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Regulatory Reform: What Questions Need to be Asked

In 1984, Portney argued that "[w]e should scrutinize proposed reforms of the rulemaking process every bit as carefully as the regulations that process produces." In the twenty-three years since then, the regulatory process on the federal level has been continuously reformed by statute,by executive order, and by directives from the OMB (including the recent guidelines for risk assessments). Despite the extensive debate on the need for these reforms, there has been very little analysis of the reforms themselves. This paper updates Portney's work on analyzing cost-benefit analysis and expands it to evaluate reforms of the regulatory process. I use as my primary example the recent peer-review guidelines issued by OMB. I argue that we may have reached a point of diminishing returns in regulatory reforms and that the peer-review guidelines likely have costs that exceed their benefits and that further regulatory reforms merit closer examination. In assessing the costs of regulatory reforms, the key question is the cost of delays to the regulatory process. I look at the cost of delays extensively and identify several factors that need to be answered to assess these costs. Specifically, in order to assess the cost of regulatory delay imposed by regulatory reforms, we must know: (1) the number of regulations affected, (2) the average cost of a delay in the type of regulation that will be affected, and (3) the average length of the delay.

Presidents and Process: A Comparison of the Regulatory Process Under the Clinton and Bush (43) Administrations

Do procedural controls placed on the regulatory process allow politicians to control bureaucratic decisionmaking? I use data on the regulatory process under the Clinton and Bush Administrations to assess the differences between these presidents with distinct ideological regulatory agendas. I find that the number of comments received, the changes made between proposal and finalization of rules, the frequency with which agencies bypass notice and comment and the time to complete a rulemaking did not vary substantially between the two presidencies. This raises questions about the effectiveness of procedural controls on agency decisionmaking.Regulatory Reform

Relativistic Collapse of Rotating Supermassive Stars to Supermassive Black Holes

There is compelling evidence that supermassive black holes (SMBHs) exist. Yet the origin of these objects, or their seeds, is still unknown. We are performing general relativistic simulations of gravitational collapse to black holes in different scenarios to help reveal how SMBH seeds might arise in the universe. SMBHs with ~ 10^9 solar masses must have formed by z > 6, or within 10^9 yrs after the Big Bang, to power quasars. It may be difficult for gas accretion to build up such a SMBH by this time unless the initial seed black hole already has a substantial mass. One plausible progenitor of a massive seed black hole is a supermassive star (SMS). We have followed the collapse of a SMS to a SMBH by means of 3D hydrodynamic simulations in post-Newtonian gravity and axisymmetric simulations in full general relativity. The initial SMS of arbitrary mass M in these simulations rotates uniformly at the mass--shedding limit and is marginally unstable to radial collapse. The final black hole mass and spin are determined to be M_h/M ~ 0.9 and J_h/M_h^2 ~ 0.75. The remaining mass goes into a disk of mass M_{disk}/M ~ 0.1. This disk arises even though the total spin of the progenitor star, J/M^2 = 0.97, is safely below the Kerr limit. The collapse generates a mild burst of gravitational radiation. Nonaxisymmetric bars or one-armed spirals may arise during the quasi-stationary evolution of a SMS, during its collapse, or in the ambient disk about the hole, and are potential sources of quasi-periodic waves, detectable by LISA.Comment: 11 pages, to appear in "The Astrophysics of Gravitational Wave Sources", Proceedings of a Workshop held at the University of Maryland in April 2003, ed. J. Centrella, AIP, in pres

Collapse of a Rotating Supermassive Star to a Supermassive Black Hole: Fully Relativistic Simulations

We follow the collapse in axisymmetry of a uniformly rotating, supermassive star (SMS) to a supermassive black hole (SMBH) in full general relativity. The initial SMS of arbitrary mass $M$ is marginally unstable to radial collapse and rotates at the mass-shedding limit. The collapse proceeds homologously early on and results in the appearance of an apparent horizon at the center. Although our integration terminates before final equilibrium is achieved, we determine that the final black hole will contain about 90% of the total mass of the system and have a spin parameter $J/M^2 \sim 0.75$. The remaining gas forms a rotating disk about the nascent hole.Comment: 12 pages, to appear in ApJ

GRMHD simulations of prompt-collapse neutron star mergers: the absence of jets

Inspiraling and merging binary neutron stars are not only important source of gravitational waves, but also promising candidates for coincident electromagnetic counterparts. These systems are thought to be progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs). We have shown previously that binary neutron star mergers that undergo {\it delayed} collapse to a black hole surrounded by a {\it weighty} magnetized accretion disk can drive magnetically-powered jets. We now perform magnetohydrodynamic simulations in full general relativity of binary neutron stars mergers that undergo {\it prompt} collapse to explore the possibility of jet formation from black hole-{\it light} accretion disk remnants. We find that after $t-t_{\rm BH}\sim 26(M_{\rm NS}/1.8M_\odot)$ms [$M_{\rm NS}$ is the ADM mass] following prompt black hole formation, there is no evidence of mass outflow or magnetic field collimation. The rapid formation of the black hole following merger prevents magnetic energy from approaching force-free values above the magnetic poles, which is required for the launching of a jet by the usual Blandford--Znajek mechanism. Detection of gravitational waves in coincidence with sGRBs may provide constraints on the nuclear equation of state (EOS): the fate of an NSNS merger--delayed or prompt collapse, and hence the appearance or nonappearance of an sGRB--depends on a critical value of the total mass of the binary, and this value is sensitive to the EOS.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, matches published versio