Geography, Health, and Demo-Economic Development

This paper investigates the interactive impact of subsistence consumption and child mortality on fertility choice and child expenditure. It offers an explanation for why mankind multiplies at higher rates at geographically unfavorable, tropical locations. In a macro-economic framework it proposes an indirect channel of geography’s influence on economic performance. It explains why it are the world’s unfavorably located regions where we observe exceedingly slow (if not stalled) economic development and demographic transition.demographic transition; geography; health; cross-country divergence

Social Composition, Social Conflict, and Economic Development

This paper investigates how social composition affects social conflict and economic development when property rights are unenforceable. Groups follow Markovian strategies for consumption and investment and may also spend effort in an resource appropriation contest. It is shown that conflict prevents investment and growth in a society of symmetric groups. In a society at peace economic growth may occur. Growth, however, is decreasing in the degree of social fractionalization and smaller than it could be under secure property rights. In an economy populated by social groups of unequal size an asymmetric equilibrium exists. A large majority may behave peacefully although continuously challenged by a predatory minority. The rebelridden economy either stagnates or grows at a low rate. Growth is decreasing in the size of the predatory minority and its conflict intensity. A final part extends the analysis towards behavior of non-benevolent social elites.social conflict; social fractionalization; property rights; stagnation; growth

A Distributional Theory of Government Growth

This paper presents a closed form solution for time-consistent taxation and public spending in a dynamic game between government and median voter. Extending Meltzer and Richard’s static analysis of government size the paper offers a theory of growth of government. At low stages of economic development the median voter, identified as a relatively poor worker, prefers to have no or only small redistributive taxation in order to foster savings. Through this channel he expects improvements of his labor productivity and wage. At higher stages of development, however, when capital is relatively abundant and prospects of further labor productivity gains through capital accumulation are smaller, the incentive to tax and redistribute income rises. Yet, in line with previous work on growth and infrastructure spending the median voter prefers a constant share of productive public spending at all times. Hence, government growth is solely driven by an expanding welfare state.redistribution; government growth; Markov-perfect equilibrium

Social Composition, Social Conflict, and Economic Development

This paper investigates how people subdivided in social groups behave in an economy without property rights. Facing a linear production technology groups follow Markovian strategies for consumption and investment. Additionally, they may spend effort in an appropriation contest. For a symmetric society I show that conflict prevents investment and growth. In a society at peace economic growth may occur. Growth, however, is decreasing in the degree of social fractionalization and smaller than it could be under secure property rights. In an economy populated by social groups of unequal size an asymmetric equilibrium exists. A large majority may behave peacefully although continuously challenged by a predatory minority. In that case the economy either stagnates or grows at a low rate. Growth is decreasing in the size of the predatory minority and its conflict intensity.Africa’s Growth Tragedy, Property Rights, Social Conflict, Fractionalization

Voracity and Growth Reconsidered

This article investigates economic performance when enforceable property rights are missing and subsistence needs matter. It shows that if per capita income is sufficiently high, a windfall gain in productivity triggers behavior that leads to higher growth (the normal reaction). The same shock can produce voracious behavior and lower growth when faced by poor economic agents, in particular when their productivity is low and their society is largely fractionalized. This leads to a re-assessment of the voracity effect. Economic and social performance depends no longer on character traits (the assumed curvature of the utility function) as assumed in the earlier literature. Instead, the initial degree of development, the state of technology, and the make up of society are decisive. An extension towards a two-sector economy shows that conditions for an active informal sector of low productivity are much less restrictive than originally thought. --economic growth,property rights,common pool resources,voracity,fractionalization

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Quantitative Economics of R&D–driven Growth Revisited

This paper augments an R&D-based growth model of the third generation with human capital accumulation and impure altruism, calibrates it with U.S. data, and investigates whether the market provides too little or too much R&D. For benchmark parameters the market share of employment in R&D is close to the socially optimal allocation. Sensitivity analysis shows that the order of magnitude of possible deviation between market allocation and optimal R&D is also smaller than suggested by previous studies. Furthermore, the model allows for two additional channels through which population growth may affect the resource allocation so that its overall economic impact is no longer predetermined as being positive. Numerical calibrations show that economic growth at the U.S. average rate during the last century can be consistent with a small and probably negative partial correlation between population growth and economic growth.human capital; population growth; endogenous economic growth; R&D-spillovers

The Role of Poverty and Community Norms in Child Labor and Schooling Decisions

Household poverty is a powerful motive for child labor and working frequently comes at the expense of schooling for children. Accounting for these natural links we investigate whether and when there is an additional role for community norms and how the social evaluation of schooling evolves over time. The proposed model provides an explanation for why equally poor villages or regions display different attitudes towards schooling and why children who are not working are not sent to school either but remain idle instead. The conditions for a successful implementation of a half-day school vs. a full-day school are investigated. An extension of the model explores how an education contingent subsidy paid to the poorest families of a community manages to initiate a bandwagon effect towards an equilibrium where all children are sent to school. --School Attendance,Child Labor,Social Norms,Targeted Transfers

Birth, Death, and Development: A Simple Unified Growth Theory

This study provides a unified growth theory to correctly predict the initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortality and net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the course of their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate interplay between technological progress, mortality, fertility and economic growth in the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. It identifies a number of structural breaks over the course of development, suggesting a high degree of complexity regarding the relationships between various economic and demographic variables.economic growth; mortality; fertility; structural change; industrial revolution

Tracing the income-fertility nexus: Nonparametric Estimates for a Panel of Countries

We apply the a nonparametric method of kernel regression on a dataset for 109 countries to estimate the income fertility nexus in demo-economic transition. The results suggest the existence of a critical level of per capita income above which fertility decreases exponentially with rising income. For income levels below fertility stays on a high level and its relation to income is of minor significance. The critical income threshold changes over time and is lower for more recent periods, which gives evidence of major structural shifts in the relationship under investigation.

The Simplest Unified Growth Theory

This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus’ (1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis – that fertility rates vary inversely with the price of food – the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break with the Malthusian era. The current framework lends support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.economic growth; population growth; structural change; industrial revolution