Tracing the income-fertility nexus: Nonparametric Estimates for a Panel of Countries

Abstract

We apply the a nonparametric method of kernel regression on a dataset for 109 countries to estimate the income fertility nexus in demo-economic transition. The results suggest the existence of a critical level of per capita income above which fertility decreases exponentially with rising income. For income levels below fertility stays on a high level and its relation to income is of minor significance. The critical income threshold changes over time and is lower for more recent periods, which gives evidence of major structural shifts in the relationship under investigation.