Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of responsibility models as a means of representing the key features of contingency plans. Using a case study of a flooding emergency, we illustrate our approach to responsibility modelling and suggest how it adds value to current textual contingency plans

Improvement in hospital Quality of Care (QoC) after the introduction of rotavirus vaccination:An evaluation study in Belgium

During each winter period hospital emergency rooms and pediatric wards are often overwhelmed by high patient influx with infectious diseases leading to chaotic conditions with poor quality of care (QoC) delivery as a consequence. The conditions could be improved if we were able to better control the influx by introducing for instance better prevention strategies against some of the most frequent infectious diseases. New prevention strategies using vaccination against rotavirus infection were introduced in Belgium in November 2006. We developed a measure of hospital QoC suitable for assessing the impact of pediatric rotavirus vaccination. The study is retrospective collecting routine data on bed and staff management in one pediatric hospital in Belgium. The data were divided in pre- and post-vaccination periods during rotavirus-epidemic and non-epidemic periods. The scores were constructed using Explanatory Factor Analysis (EFA). All patients enrolled were admitted to the pediatric ward over the period from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2009. The results of the epidemic period indicated that bed-day occupancy, bed-day turnover and unplanned readmissions for acute gastroenteritis were lower in the post-vaccination compared with the pre-vaccination periods. The QoC scores were therefore significantly lower (indicating improved QoC) after the introduction of rotavirus vaccination, compared with pre-vaccination. The data suggests that the reduction in the winter peak of rotavirus-related hospitalizations after the introduction of the vaccine reduces pressure on hospital resources and improves the quality of hospital care. The findings should be further tested in similar settings

Effects of pressure on the local atomic structure of CaWO4 and YLiF4: Mechanism of the scheelite-to-wolframite and scheelite-to-fergusonite transitions

The pressure response of the scheelite phase of CaWO4 (YLiF4) and the occurrence of the pressure induced scheelite-to-wolframite (M-fergusonite) transition are reviewed and discussed. It is shown that the change of the axial parameters under compression is related with the different pressure dependence of the W-O (Li-F) and Ca-O (Y-F) interatomic bonds. Phase transition mechanisms for both compounds are proposed. Furthermore, a systematic study of the phase transition in 16 different scheelite ABX4 compounds indicates that the transition pressure increases as the packing ratio of the anionic BX4 units around the A cations increases.Comment: 38 pages, 10 figures (Figure 5 corrected), accepted for publication in Journal of Solid State Chemistr

Structure Learning in Human Sequential Decision-Making

Studies of sequential decision-making in humans frequently find suboptimal performance relative to an ideal actor that has perfect knowledge of the model of how rewards and events are generated in the environment. Rather than being suboptimal, we argue that the learning problem humans face is more complex, in that it also involves learning the structure of reward generation in the environment. We formulate the problem of structure learning in sequential decision tasks using Bayesian reinforcement learning, and show that learning the generative model for rewards qualitatively changes the behavior of an optimal learning agent. To test whether people exhibit structure learning, we performed experiments involving a mixture of one-armed and two-armed bandit reward models, where structure learning produces many of the qualitative behaviors deemed suboptimal in previous studies. Our results demonstrate humans can perform structure learning in a near-optimal manner