The bii4africa dataset of faunal and floral population intactness estimates across Africa’s major land uses

Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species’ population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate ‘intactness scores’: the remaining proportion of an ‘intact’ reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on a scale from 0 (no remaining individuals) to 1 (same abundance as the reference) and, in rare cases, to 2 (populations that thrive in human-modified landscapes). The resulting bii4africa dataset contains intactness scores representing terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods: ±5,400 amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and vascular plants (±45,000 forbs, graminoids, trees, shrubs) in sub-Saharan Africa across the region’s major land uses (urban, cropland, rangeland, plantation, protected, etc.) and intensities (e.g., large-scale vs smallholder cropland). This dataset was co-produced as part of the Biodiversity Intactness Index for Africa Project. Additional uses include assessing ecosystem condition; rectifying geographic/ taxonomic biases in global biodiversity indicators and maps; and informing the Red List of Ecosystems

RGAP: Output Gap Estimation in R

Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which features a flexible modeling framework for the appropriate bivariate unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include direct access to the AMECO database and automated model selection procedures. Multiple illustrative examples outline data preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP

Die Produktionslücke für die Schweiz – eine Branchen-Perspektive

In diesem Beitrag stellen wir ein mehrdimensionales Zustandsraummodell vor, um die Produktionslücke in der Schweiz auf Branchenebene zu untersuchen. Unser Ansatz ermöglicht es, die Zyklen verschiedener Wirtschaftssektoren in gesamtwirtschaftliche und sektorspezifische Beiträge zu zerlegen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Zyklen der betrachteten Branchen teils merklich voneinander abweichen und dass vor allem die Industrie aber auch die finanz- und sonstigen wirtschaftlichen Dienstleistungen in engem Zusammenhang zur Schweizer Gesamtkonjunktur stehen. Eben diese Branchen verzeichnen die höchsten Trendwachstumsraten und sind somit massgebliche Treiber des durchschnittlichen jährlichen Schweizer Potenzialwachstums von 1.8%. Damit werden die Konjunktur sowie das Trendwachstum der Schweizer Wirtschaft am deutlichsten von eben jenen Branchen beeinflusst, die am meisten von der Weltkonjunktur abhängen.In this article, we present a multidimensional unobserved component model to study the output gap in Switzerland at the sector level. Our approach allows us to decompose the cycles of different economic sectors into economy-wide and sector-specific contributions. Our results show that the cycles of the sectors considered diverge, in some cases noticeably, and that in particular manufacturing, but also financial and other economic services, are closely related to the overall Swiss economy. It is precisely these sectors that record the highest trend growth rates and are therefore key drivers of Switzerland’s average annual potential growth of 1.8%. The business cycle and trend growth of the Swiss economy are thus most clearly influenced by the very sectors that are most dependent on the global economy

Do COVID-19 Containment Measures Work? Evidence from Switzerland

We study the interplay of non-pharmaceutical containment measures, human behavior, and the spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland. First, we collect sub-national data and construct indices that capture the stringency of containment measures at the cantonal level. Second, we use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze feedback effects between our variables of interest via structural impulse responses. Our results suggest that increases in the stringency of containment measures lead to a significant reduction of weekly infections as well as debit card transactions, which serve as a proxy for behavioral changes in the population. Furthermore, analyzing different policy measures individually shows that business closures, recommendations to work from home, and restrictions on gatherings have been particularly effective in containing the spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland. Finally, our findings indicate a sizeable voluntary reduction in debit card transactions in response to a positive infection shock

The Role of ECB Communication in Guiding Markets

Economists and central bankers nowadays believe that forward guidance has become more important in a world in which key interest rates have hit their effective lower bounds (ELB). In case of the European Central Bank (ECB), this should have increased the informational content of the introductory statements at the press conference following ECB policy meetings. We examine whether this form of ECB communication adds information to a shadow interest rate that summarises the overall policy stance as interpreted by financial markets. To measure communication, we use information based on ECB press releases distinguishing between topics like inflation, the real economy and monetary developments. We also look at the effect of communication on consensus expectations about key macroeconomic variables. Especially ECB’s assessment of the economy, i.e. communication related to economic growth, triggers movement in financial markets and thereby the shadow rate. Communication of the ECB through its press releases also causes professional forecasters to change their outlook. Not only their growth forecasts are affected, also their expectations for M3 growth and inflation are

Szenario-Analysen zu den kurzfristigen wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie

Wenn es um den Umgang mit der COVID-19-Pandemie geht, scheinen die meisten Regierungen weltweit inzwischen eine so genannte «Hammer und Tanz»-Strategie zu verfolgen. Um schnellstmögliche Kontrolle über die Ausbreitung des Virus zu erreichen, werden Schul- und Betriebsschliessungen, Ausgangsbeschränkungen oder Kontaktsperren durchgesetzt. Mit diesen «Hammer»-Massnahmen sollen das Virus und dessen Verbreitung eingedämmt und die Fallzahlen innerhalb weniger Wochen unter Kontrolle gebracht werden. Das Ziel: Die Basisreproduktionszahl des Virus muss unter 1 fallen. Dies würde bedeuten, dass jede infizierte Person weniger als eine neue Person infiziert, wodurch das Virus allmählich zurückgedrängt wird

'Hard to reach' or 'easy to ignore'. Strategies and reflections on including co-researchers

In this paper we reflect on how to do research with co-researchers who are perceived as ‘hard to reach’. We critically debate this expression and recommend the usage of the term ‘easy to ignore’, which rather fosters self-reflection instead of creating a double deficit. We elaborate on important aspects about getting into contact, ensuring continuity, choosing methods and enhancing participation. We consider it very important to integrate these co-researchers in every step of there search process — from formulating research questions to disseminating results. Furthermore, the research design and methods shall be chosen together with the co-researchers, matching their interests and capacities. Last but not least, we recommend to continuously reflect on inclusion and exclusion of target groups as well as power relations and hierarchies within the team of researchers and co-researchers