Used-habitat calibration plots: a new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models

“Species distribution modeling” was recently ranked as one of the top five “research fronts” in ecology and the environmental sciences by ISI's Essential Science Indicators (Renner and Warton 2013), reflecting the importance of predicting how species distributions will respond to anthropogenic change. Unfortunately, species distribution models (SDMs) often perform poorly when applied to novel environments. Compounding on this problem is the shortage of methods for evaluating SDMs (hence, we may be getting our predictions wrong and not even know it). Traditional methods for validating SDMs quantify a model's ability to classify locations as used or unused. Instead, we propose to focus on how well SDMs can predict the characteristics of used locations. This subtle shift in viewpoint leads to a more natural and informative evaluation and validation of models across the entire spectrum of SDMs. Through a series of examples, we show how simple graphical methods can help with three fundamental challenges of habitat modeling: identifying missing covariates, non-linearity, and multicollinearity. Identifying habitat characteristics that are not well-predicted by the model can provide insights into variables affecting the distribution of species, suggest appropriate model modifications, and ultimately improve the reliability and generality of conservation and management recommendations

Characterizing DemographicParameters Across Environmental Gradients: A Case Study With Ontario Moose

Population-level demographic characteristics as estimated by standard logistic growth models (i.e., carrying capacity and intrinsic growth rate) should vary with changes in habitat quality and availability of resources. However, few published studies have tested this hypothesis by comparing population growth rates across broad bioclimatic gradients, and fewer still the carrying capacities of those populations. We used time series data on moose (Alces alces) population densities based on aerial census and hunter harvest data for 34 management units across Ontario to estimate local carrying capacities and intrinsic growth rates. These population parameters were then regressed against associated habitat covariates for each management unit to assess how moose demography changes across a broad gradient of productivity, habitat abundance, and timber harvest. Moose carrying capacity was found to increase with increasing forest productivity as measured by DNDVI and the proportion of mixedwood stands in the forest. Both variables are plausibly indicative of high quality forage abundance for moose. Moose carrying capacity decreased with the proportion of forest stands harvested for timber annually, suggesting that immediate removal of forest stands and increased access by hunters temper maximum population size. Maximum rates of population growth by Ontario moose did not vary predictably with any of the landscape covariates tested. These findings contribute to our understanding of changes in demography across broad geographic and bioclimatic gradients and suggest that crude population estimators may be derived based on known habitat preferences and resource availability without a priori knowledge of animal abundance. (PDF) Characterizing demographic parameters across environmental gradients: A case study with Ontario moose (Alces alces). Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280936410_Characterizing_demographic_parameters_across_environmental_gradients_A_case_study_with_Ontario_moose_Alces_alces [accessed Oct 29 2018]

Piscivorous Bird Use of Aquaculture and Natural Water Bodies in Mississippi

Double crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) and great egrets (Ardea alba) have an extensive history of human wildlife conflict with the aquaculture industry of western Mississippi, USA, due to their depredation of cultured catfish (Ictalurus spp.). Although aquaculture is abundant, western Mississippi also contains naturally occurring water bodies that offer alternative forage opportunities to these species. How cormorants or egrets distribute themselves among these 2 foraging options is unknown, but it has been generally assumed each species uses aquaculture disproportionately more because of the high density of available prey. To test this assumption, we surveyed these species on aquaculture and naturally occurring water bodies using aerial surveys from October through April of 2015–2016, 2016–2017, and 2017–2018. We modeled the proportion of each species on aquaculture as a function of year, date, and weather-related variables using quasi binomial generalized linear models. Egrets used aquaculture consistently more than what was proportionally available to them and use was not influenced by any of the variables we measured. Proportional use of aquaculture by cormorants was lowest during October through January but steadily increased through April, indicating a distribution shift toward aquaculture in the months immediately prior to their migration. The highest proportional use of aquaculture by cormorants occurred in 2016, a year when lethal control measures were not allowed against cormorants. Conversely, the least proportion of cormorants on aquaculture was in 2015 when cormorants could be lethally controlled under authority of an Aquaculture Depredation Order. This trend highlights the potential influence of changes in mortality risk, caused by changes in policy regarding lethal take of cormorants, on cormorant distribution between foraging option

Historic and contemporary use of catfish aquaculture by piscivorous birds in the Mississippi Delta

Piscivorous birds are the primary source of catfish (Ictalurus spp.) depredation at aquaculture facilities in northwestern Mississippi. Of particular concern is the Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus), which can cost aquaculture producers millions of dollars annually through the depredation of cultured fish. Historical research conducted in the early 2000s estimated cormorant use of aquaculture ponds in the region, but aquaculture area has decreased by more than 70% since those estimates were made. With less aquaculture available, we predicted cormorant densities on aquaculture would be greater today than historically. Applying a similar methodology as in historical studies, we used aerial surveys to collect data on cormorants at night roosts and using catfish aquaculture ponds during 3 consecutive winter seasons, beginning in 2015. Although the mean annual number of cormorants at roosts in the Delta during our study was 64% less than historically, we found no significant change in densities on aquaculture, suggesting that aquaculture area is likely the factor influencing cormorant occurrence in northwestern Mississippi. During contemporary surveys we also measured the abundance of Great Blue Herons (Ardea herodias) and Great Egrets (A. alba) on the aquaculture clusters, and built predictive models of abundance relative to variables associated with forage at and surrounding the clusters. We found abundance of all 3 species was strongly related to the amount of aquaculture area both within and surrounding a cluster, although patterns varied by species. Cormorant abundance was also greater on clusters with proportionately more food fish (≥20 cm in length) than fingerlings (\u3c20 cm) and was positively related to the proximity and size of night roosts. The relationships described here can be used by producers and wildlife managers to predict the abundance of these piscivorous birds at aquaculture facilities and to design efficient management plans to mitigate potential impacts of depredation and disease

Fine Scale Characteristics of Catfish Aquaculture Ponds Influencing Use by Double-Crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) in Northwest Mississippi

Double-crested Cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) are the main source of depredation at catfish aquaculture facilities in Northwest Mississippi, resulting in significant economic loss. Understanding factors related to pond selection by cormorants could aid in mitigation practices to minimize further loss. We constructed occupancy models to estimate the probability of cormorant presence on catfish ponds against multiple variables associated with each ponds physical surroundings and internal conditions. We also explored cormorant use of aquaculture and natural habitat by using logistic regression to model the proportion of cormorants on aquaculture compared to natural habitat and influences of seasonal variation. Cormorant presence data was collected by aerial survey (n=35) from October to April, of 2015-2017, accounting for an average of 973 catfish ponds and 26 natural water bodies each year. Our results indicate ponds located farther away from trees and activity centers, such as farm workshops, have a higher probability of cormorant use. Larger ponds, and ponds nearer the edge of pond clusters also have an increased probability of use. Specific pond contents influenced cormorant use, including fish species cultured, pond systems, and fish types. From October through January cormorants were distributed more on natural habitat. However, cormorants’ proportional use of aquaculture steadily increased beginning in February. This temporal shift from natural habitat toward aquaculture coincides with cormorant spring migration, indicating an increase in foraging of catfish in preparation for the migration north

Seasonal variation in preference dictates space use in an invasive generalist

The spatiotemporal distribution of resources is a critical component of realized animal distributions. In agricultural landscapes, space use by generalist consumers is influenced by ephemeral resource availability that may produce behavioral differences across agricultural seasons, resulting in economic and production consequences and increased human-wildlife conflict. Our objective was to assess changes in habitat selection across seasons in an invasive generalist omnivore (feral pigs, Sus scrofa). Hypothesizing that pig space use is primarily driven by forage availability, we predicted strong selection for the most nutritionally beneficial crops and resource types as agricultural seasons progressed. We deployed GPS collars on 13 adult feral pigs in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley to study resource selection in a fragmented agricultural landscape. We estimated resource selection using mixed-effect logistic regression to assess variation in selection across planting, growing, harvest, and fallow seasons

Long term changes in aquaculture influence migration, regional abundance, and distribution of an avian species

Agricultural development has been causing changes to the environment and the abundance and distribution of avian species. Agriculture is dynamic with changes in products occurring at large scales over relatively short time periods. The catfish aquaculture industry is one such agriculture industry that has undergone dramatic changes over the last 25 years. The double-crested cormorant (Nannopterum auritum) is a piscivorous bird that has an extensive history with the aquaculture industry of Mississippi due to its depredation of cultured catfish. A large-scale monitoring program began in 1989 to estimate the abundance and location of cormorants at every known roost in the primary catfish producing region of the state, regionally known as the Delta. We used this data set to address hypotheses pertaining to cormorant ecology within the Delta over time, particularly in relation to aquaculture. We found that, although the Midwest breeding population of cormorants has been increasing, the abundance of cormorants wintering in the Delta has been decreasing, closely following the decline of aquaculture, suggesting aquaculture area is the primary reason for cormorant inhabitation of the region. We also modeled cormorant presence and abundance at all roost sites to determine what factors most influenced cormorant distribution. Aquaculture area around roosts was a significant predictor of both cormorant presence and abundance. However, the influence of aquaculture area was seasonally dependent, with greater positive influences occurring prior to migration. Lastly, we found peak cormorant abundance in the Delta is occurring 2.14 days earlier each year, which may be indicative of changes to migration phenology. Information gained using this large dataset aids in cormorant damage mitigation and to further our understanding of cormorant ecology. Data indicate changes in agriculture, and potentially climate change, can influence phenology, distribution, and abundance of avian species at large geographic scales

A Place to Call Home: Amphibian Use of Created and Restored Wetlands

Loss and degradation of wetland habitats are major contributing factors to the global decline of amphibians. Creation and restoration of wetlands could be a valuable tool for increasing local amphibian species richness and abundance. We synthesized the peer-reviewed literature addressing amphibian use of created and restored wetlands, focusing on aquatic habitat, upland habitat, and wetland connectivity and configuration. Amphibian species richness or abundance at created and restored wetlands was either similar to or greater than reference wetlands in 89% of studies. Use of created and restored wetlands by individual species was driven by aquatic and terrestrial habitat preferences, as well as ability to disperse from source wetlands. We conclude that creating and restoring wetlands can be valuable tools for amphibian conservation. However, the ecological needs and preferences of target species must be considered to maximize the potential for successful colonization and long-term persistence