The Fix: A Global Warming Policy Practitioner's Handbook

In the last few years there has been a substantial restating of the global warming 'problem.' According to Bruce Stram, these new conclusions have quite different policy implications than those currently driving the global policy debate. In this paper, Stram outlines a plan that could be turned into concrete, practical, and inexpensive steps, which are intended to put us on a path to resolving the global warming problem. The global warming problem, if it is that, cannot be very usefully addressed with substantial greenhouse gas emissions reduction now. However, other, more strategic, actions to prepare for possible future reductions should be taken now. The initial action suggested here is to develop a formal international program of energy research and development that is 'permanently' funded by a small tax (on carbon) to support energy R&D on a multilateral basis.Environment, Other Topics

Interethnic differences in pancreatic cancer incidence and risk factors: The Multiethnic Cohort.

While disparity in pancreatic cancer incidence between blacks and whites has been observed, few studies have examined disparity in other ethnic minorities. We evaluated variations in pancreatic cancer incidence and assessed the extent to which known risk factors account for differences in pancreatic cancer risk among African Americans, Native Hawaiians, Japanese Americans, Latino Americans, and European Americans in the Multiethnic Cohort Study. Risk factor data were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. Cox regression was used to estimate the relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pancreatic cancer associated with risk factors and ethnicity. During an average 16.9-year follow-up, 1,532 incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified among 184,559 at-risk participants. Family history of pancreatic cancer (RR 1.97, 95% CI 1.50-2.58), diabetes (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.14-1.54), body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08-1.46), current smoking (<20 pack-years RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.19-1.73; ≥20 pack-years RR 1.76, 95% CI 1.46-2.12), and red meat intake (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.00-1.36) were associated with pancreatic cancer. After adjustment for these risk factors, Native Hawaiians (RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.30-1.98), Japanese Americans (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.15-1.54), and African Americans (RR 1.20, 95% CI 1.01-1.42), but not Latino Americans (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.76-1.07), had a higher risk of pancreatic cancer compared to European Americans. Interethnic differences in pancreatic cancer risk are not fully explained by differences in the distribution of known risk factors. The greater risks in Native Hawaiians and Japanese Americans are new findings and elucidating the causes of these high rates may improve our understanding and prevention of pancreatic cancer

Methodological Issues in Multistage Genome-Wide Association Studies

Because of the high cost of commercial genotyping chip technologies, many investigations have used a two-stage design for genome-wide association studies, using part of the sample for an initial discovery of ``promising'' SNPs at a less stringent significance level and the remainder in a joint analysis of just these SNPs using custom genotyping. Typical cost savings of about 50% are possible with this design to obtain comparable levels of overall type I error and power by using about half the sample for stage I and carrying about 0.1% of SNPs forward to the second stage, the optimal design depending primarily upon the ratio of costs per genotype for stages I and II. However, with the rapidly declining costs of the commercial panels, the generally low observed ORs of current studies, and many studies aiming to test multiple hypotheses and multiple endpoints, many investigators are abandoning the two-stage design in favor of simply genotyping all available subjects using a standard high-density panel. Concern is sometimes raised about the absence of a ``replication'' panel in this approach, as required by some high-profile journals, but it must be appreciated that the two-stage design is not a discovery/replication design but simply a more efficient design for discovery using a joint analysis of the data from both stages. Once a subset of highly-significant associations has been discovered, a truly independent ``exact replication'' study is needed in a similar population of the same promising SNPs using similar methods.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS288 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Nanowrinkled Carbon Aerogels Embedded with FeN x Sites as Effective Oxygen Electrodes for Rechargeable Zinc-Air Battery.

Rational design of single-metal atom sites in carbon substrates by a flexible strategy is highly desired for the preparation of high-performance catalysts for metal-air batteries. In this study, biomass hydrogel reactors are utilized as structural templates to prepare carbon aerogels embedded with single iron atoms by controlled pyrolysis. The tortuous and interlaced hydrogel chains lead to the formation of abundant nanowrinkles in the porous carbon aerogels, and single iron atoms are dispersed and stabilized within the defective carbon skeletons. X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements indicate that the iron centers are mostly involved in the coordination structure of FeN4, with a minor fraction (ca. 1/5) in the form of FeN3C. First-principles calculations show that the FeN x sites in the Stone-Wales configurations induced by the nanowrinkles of the hierarchically porous carbon aerogels show a much lower free energy than the normal counterparts. The resulting iron and nitrogen-codoped carbon aerogels exhibit excellent and reversible oxygen electrocatalytic activity, and can be used as bifunctional cathode catalysts in rechargeable Zn-air batteries, with a performance even better than that based on commercial Pt/C and RuO2 catalysts. Results from this study highlight the significance of structural distortions of the metal sites in carbon matrices in the design and engineering of highly active single-atom catalysts

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

Various foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non-FMD-free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD-free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10(-7) for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst-case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10(-5), which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls

Improved Imputation of Common and Uncommon Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with a New Reference Set

Statistical imputation of genotype data is an important technique for analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We have built a reference dataset to improve imputation accuracy for studies of individuals of primarily European descent using genotype data from the Hap1, Omni1, and Omni2.5 human SNP arrays (Illumina). Our dataset contains 2.5-3.1 million variants for 930 European, 157 Asian, and 162 African/African-American individuals. Imputation accuracy of European data from Hap660 or OmniExpress array content, measured by the proportion of variants imputed with R^2^>0.8, improved by 34%, 23% and 12% for variants with MAF of 3%, 5% and 10%, respectively, compared to imputation using publicly available data from 1,000 Genomes and International HapMap projects. The improved accuracy with the use of the new dataset could increase the power for GWAS by as much as 8% relative to genotyping all variants. This reference dataset is available to the scientific community through the NCBI dbGaP portal. Future versions will include additional genotype data as well as non-European populations

A Kinship-Based Modification of the Armitage Trend Test to Address Hidden Population Structure and Small Differential Genotyping Errors

BACKGROUND/AIMS: We propose a modification of the well-known Armitage trend test to address the problems associated with hidden population structure and hidden relatedness in genome-wide case-control association studies. METHODS: The new test adopts beneficial traits from three existing testing strategies: the principal components, mixed model, and genomic control while avoiding some of their disadvantageous characteristics, such as the tendency of the principal components method to over-correct in certain situations or the failure of the genomic control approach to reorder the adjusted tests based on their degree of alignment with the underlying hidden structure. The new procedure is based on Gauss-Markov estimators derived from a straightforward linear model with an imposed variance structure proportional to an empirical relatedness matrix. Lastly, conceptual and analytical similarities to and distinctions from other approaches are emphasized throughout. RESULTS: Our simulations show that the power performance of the proposed test is quite promising compared to the considered competing strategies. The power gains are especially large when small differential differences between cases and controls are present; a likely scenario when public controls are used in multiple studies. CONCLUSION: The proposed modified approach attains high power more consistently than that of the existing commonly implemented tests. Its performance improvement is most apparent when small but detectable systematic differences between cases and controls exist