La prédiction de la délinquance

The paper presents the results of a meta-analysis to analyze which predictors of delinquency in males and females are consistently evident from longitudinal studies, and how the predictors compare in their predictive efficiency. The results show that a variety of conduct problems but also conditions within the family are predictive of later delinquency in general, recidivism, or serious offenses. As a rule, composite indicators of risk factors outperformed single indicators. Data is presented on the early identification of chronic offenders. The results are critically examined in terms of error rates, and in terms of future directions for research

Serious delinquent behavior, sensation-seeking and electrodermal arousal

Low tonic skin conductance level (SCL) has been related, inconsistently, to both delinquency and sensation-seeking. This study tests the hypothesis that there is an interaction such that high sensation seeking delinquents, in particular, have low SCLs. Participants consisted of 335 boys from the Pittsburgh Youth Study classified as serious delinquents or controls based upon 10 years of prospectively collected self-report delinquency data. Participants' skin conductance was evaluated at age 16 along with several personality and neuropsychological measures. Both delinquency and sensation seeking were characterized by low SCL. However, there was no evidence to suggest that the presence of both of these factors together lead to especially low skin conductance levels. This finding is not explained by differences between the groups on measures of negative emotionality, IQ, socioeconomic status, or impulsivity

Risk and promotive effects in the explanation of persistent serious delinquency in boys

Risk and promotive effects were investigated as predictors of persistent serious delinquency in male participants of the Pittsburgh Youth Study (R. Loeber, D. P. Farrington, M. Stouthamer-Loeber, & W. B. van Kammen, 1998), living in different neighborhoods. Participants were studied over ages 13–19 years for the oldest sample and 7–13 years for the youngest sample. Risk and promotive effects were studied in 6 domains: child behavior, child attitudes, school and leisure activities, peer behaviors, family functioning, and demographics. Regression models improved when promotive effects were included with risk effects in predicting persistent serious delinquency. Disadvantaged neighborhoods, compared with better neighborhoods, had a higher prevalence of risk effects and a lower prevalence of promotive effects. However, predictive relations between risk and promotive effects and persistent serious delinquency were linear and similar across neighborhood socioeconomic status. Although advances have been made in the study of predictors of serious delinquency (Hawkins et al., 1998; Lipsey & Derzon, 1998), little is known about predictors of persistent serious offend-ing, which from a societal point of view is of particular concern. Most youth commit some delinquent acts in childhood or adoles

Childhood Predictors of Desistance and Level of Persistence in Offending in Early Onset Offenders

Childhood predictors of adolescent offending careers were studied in 310 boys from the longitudinal Pittsburgh Youth Study who started offending prior to age 12. Three main groups were distinguished: serious persisters (n = 95), moderately serious persisters (n = 117), desisters (n = 63), and an intermittent group (n = 35). Group membership was predicted using risk and promotive factors measured in childhood. Serious and moderately serious persisters could be distinguished well from desisters (29.2% and 32.3% explained variance). Distinction between the two persister groups proved somewhat more difficult (20.9% explained variance). More serious persisters than desisters showed disruptive behavior, while moderately serious persisters fell in between. Further, more moderately serious persisters were marked by social disadvantage. Family involvement, small family and positive peer relationships were promotive of desistance. Concluding, early onset offenders show considerable heterogeneity in their adolescent offending careers which seem to some extent to be predicted by different sets of risk and promotive factors