The Accuracy of Population Projections

Population projections are key elements of many planning or policy studies, but are inherently inaccurate. This study of past population projection errors provides a means for constructing confidence intervals for future projections. We first define a statistic to measure projection errors independently of the size of the population and length of the projection period. A sample of U.S. Census Bureau and U.N. projections indicates that the distribution of the error statistic is relatively stable. Finally, this information is used to construct confidence intervals for the total population of the United States through the year 2000

Changes in Adult Smoking Behavior in the United States: 1955 to 1983

A new method for analyzing data from two surveys, applied to questions on smoking in the Current Population Survey and the Health Interview Survey, shows that the net rate at which adults have been quitting smoking has increased in the last three decades. Two periods, the late 1960s and the late 1970s, had especially high rates. Quit rates are higher for older people and males but not markedly so for whites. The number of light and moderate smokers has been decreasing, but the number of heavy smokers has been increasing

Advances in Mathematical Models for Population Projections

Population projections are simply extrapolations of demographic patterns that have remained constant in the past into the future. This observation by Keyfitz simultaneously provides a philosophical base for forecasting techniques and sets off a search for demographic patterns. We begin with a discussion of the reasons for disaggregate projections, how the reasons effect data requirements, and how models relieve the strain. The next section discusses advances in demographic models, especially extensions of the relational methods developed by Brass. Finally, we discuss how time-series models, in conjunction with model patterns, can be used to make forecasts with appropriate confidence intervals. The paper motivates the techniques through examples of Swedish life tables, and describes appropriate mathematical properties for projection models

A Note on the Population 50 Years Hence

Attitudes toward societal planning horizons may assume that there is relatively little overlap between the population of today and the population of the future. To test this assumption a rough calculation is made of how many people who are alive today will be alive 50 years hence. The calculation is made on the basis of 3 age cohorts for a sample of 10 countries from 8 demographic categories. While the result is uncertain because of changing mortality, poor data, etc., the authors believe it is reasonably robust. About forty percent of those alive today will be alive in 50 years. This proportion includes 550 million people 15 or older. These results suggest that long planning horizons are rational from the point of view of the self-interest of the existing population. Further research into societal planning horizons would be useful

An Analysis of Indirect Mortality Estimation

This paper investigates the robustness of the Brass child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique. It develops an analytical method for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated

Virus Sharing, Genetic Sequencing, and Global Health Security

The WHO’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Framework was a milestone global agreement designed to promote the international sharing of biological samples to develop vaccines, while that ensuring poorer countries would have access to those vaccines. Since the PIP Framework was negotiated, scientists have developed the capacity to use genetic sequencing data (GSD) to develop synthetic viruses rapidly for product development of life-saving technologies in a time-sensitive global emergency—threatening to unravel the Framework. Access to GSD may also have major implications for biosecurity, biosafety, and intellectual property (IP). By rendering the physical transfer of viruses antiquated, GSD may also undermine the effectiveness of the PIP Framework itself, with disproportionate impacts on poorer countries. We examine the changes that need to be made to the PIP Framework to address the growing likelihood that GSD might be shared instead of physical virus samples. We also propose that the international community harness this opportunity to expand the scope of the PIP Framework beyond only influenza viruses with pandemic potential. In light of non-influenza pandemic threats such as the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Ebola, we call for an international agreement on the sharing of the benefits of research – such as vaccines and treatments – for other infectious diseases to ensure not only a more secure and healthy world, but also a more just world, for humanity

On the Relationship of Childhood to Labor Force Migration Rates

Based on stable population theory, a formula is derived relating childhood migration rates to adult migration rates. A simple approximation of this formula is tested on Swedish migration data and is found to work well. The reasons for its failure in some instances are also explored

Baseline Evaluation of the DC Emergency Healthcare Coalition

The DC Healthcare Facilities Emergency Care Coalition, funded by a grant by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), was designed to significantly improve the state of emergency preparedness in health care facilities in the District of Columbia (DC), and to create a model for emergency preparedness that can be used by other large cities or regions of care across the nation. Its goal is to provide a comprehensive, uniform, and consistent framework and infrastructure for emergency preparedness across the full continuum of patient care. Devised to address the inconsistencies, shortcomings, fragmentations, and gaps present in current District hospital and healthcare facility emergency preparedness and response capabilities, the Coalition will achieve the following durable results and benefits for the District\u27s medical preparedness and response to a catastrophic event