A revised agricultural drought index in Lithuania

The objective of this study was to develop the best methodology for determining agricultural droughts in Lithuania. The currently used assessment methods do not always accurately reflect drought conditions in the country, especially in the first half of the growing season. For this purpose, the relevance of the currently used Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC) and five drought indices widely used in other countries were reassessed. It was found that the methodologies applied in Lithuania and other countries are not completely suitable under current conditions. A new agricultural drought identification methodology using the Temperature–Precipitation Index (TPI) is proposed as a result of this study. Analysis of long-term changes (1961–2019) in reoccurrence of droughts was carried out. It was determined that the largest number of droughts in Lithuania was recorded in the last decade of the 20th century and in the first decade of the 21st century. Despite the fact that there is a positive tendency in reoccurrence of droughts, the changes are not statistically significant

Continentality and Oceanity in the Mid and High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

The climate continentality or oceanity is one of the main characteristics of the local climatic conditions, which varies with global and regional climate change. This paper analyzes indexes of continentality and oceanity, as well as their variations in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1950–2015. Climatology and changes in continentality and oceanity are examined using Conrad’s Continentality Index (CCI) and Kerner’s Oceanity Index (KOI). The impact of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on continentality/oceanity conditions was also evaluated. According to CCI, continentality is more significant in Northeast Siberia and lower along the Pacific coast of North America as well as in coastal areas in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. However, according to KOI, areas of high continentality do not precisely correspond with those of low oceanity, appearing to the south and west of those identified by CCI. The spatial patterns of changes in continentality thus seem to be different. According to CCI, a statistically significant increase in continentality has only been found in Northeast Siberia. In contrast, in the western part of North America and the majority of Asia, continentality has weakened. According to KOI, the climate has become increasingly continental in Northern Europe and the majority of North America and East Asia. Oceanity has increased in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in some parts of the Mediterranean region. Changes in continentality were primarily related to the increased temperature of the coldest month as a consequence of changes in atmospheric circulation: the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns has dominated in winter in recent decades. Trends in oceanity may be connected with the diminishing extent of seasonal sea ice and an associated increase in sea surface temperature

Ice Detection with Sentinel-1 SAR Backscatter Threshold in Long Sections of Temperate Climate Rivers

Climate change leads to more variable meteorological conditions. In many Northern Hemisphere temperate regions, cold seasons have become more variable and unpredictable, necessitating frequent river ice observations over long sections of rivers. Satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar)-based river ice detection models have been successfully applied and tested, but different hydrological, morphological and climatological conditions can affect their skill. In this study, we developed and tested Sentinel-1 SAR-based ice detection models in 525 km sections of the Nemunas and Neris Rivers. We analyzed three binary classification models based on VV, VH backscatter and logistic regression. The model sensitivity and specificity were used to determine the optimal threshold between ice and water classes. We used in situ observations and Sentinel-2 Sen2Cor ice mask to validate models in different ice conditions. In most cases, SAR-based ice detection models outperformed Sen2Cor classification because Sen2Cor misclassified pixels as ice in areas with translucent clouds, undetected by the scene classification algorithm, and misclassified pixels as water in cloud or river valley shadow. SAR models were less accurate in river sections where river flow and ice formation conditions were affected by large valley-dammed reservoirs. Sen2Cor and SAR models accurately detected border and consolidated ice but were less accurate in moving ice conditions. The skill of models depended on how dense the moving ice was. With a lowered classification threshold and increased model sensitivity, SAR models detected sparse frazil ice. In most cases, the VV polarization-based model was more accurate than the VH polarization-based model. The results of logistic and VV models were highly correlated, and the use of VV was more constructive due to its simpler algorithm