Interpretations of the Classic: The Theory of Wages

The well-known enduring controversy on the interpretation of Ricardo's wage theory, and by implication on classical wage theory, has undoubtedly been fuelled by the existence of some inconsistencies in Ricardo's writings. However, as far as the factors affecting normal wages are concerned, these inconsistencies may carry less weight than is usually believed.. The present paper aims to provide a critical overview of the controversy concerning the interpretation of the theory of wages in classical economists, offering a somewhat unusual perspective. I contend that there are major similarities between the two interpretations that have been regarded as the main contenders, the so-called New view and Fix wage interpretations. Due to these similarities, the controversy has tended to neglect a decisive point for the interpretation of the theory of wages in Ricardo and other classical economists, namely, the meaning of 'demand for labour' in classical thought. I also maintain that there is a third point of view concerning the interpretation of wage theory in the classical economists, which has not been accurately understood and discussed in earlier surveys of the controversy. Unlike the others, this Alternative interpretation, as I shall label it for brevity, centers on the absence of a systematic decreasing relation between real wages and employment in Ricardo and other classical economists. The Alternative interpretation will be presented in some detail, and some questions posed by the New view will be assessed from the point of view of this alternative interpretation.Classical economists; Classical theory of wages; David Ricardo; Adam Smith

Changes in Functional Income Distribution in Italy and Europe

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the interpretation of the factors that have led to the fall in the labour share in Europe from a non-orthodox perspective, drawing on Classical and Keynesian traditions. It focuses first on the Italian experience and then extends the analysis to other major countries in the Euro area: Germany, France and Spain. The paper examines the role of relative price changes between business sector services and manufacturing in affecting the labour share and real wages in the two sectors. It then proceeds to historical and statistical analysis of the set of factors that have affected real wage growth in manufacturing and finds that institutional changes, unemployment, employment growth and changes in product per worker in terms of the consumer price index, taken together, explain very well real wage trends between 1962 and 2006 in Italy, Germany and Spain.Income distribution; Labour share; Real wages; Italian economy; European economies

Germany and the European and Global Crises

Moving from the current global and European imbalances and crises, and from the consideration of the German reaction to them, the paper explores the political economy origins of the conservative German policy stance. It emerges that an export-oriented economy was a deliberate decision of the German elite after WW II and that the external constraint may be regarded as appropriately designed for internal discipline and efficiency (and vice-versa) in a self-reinforcing process. The conclusions illustrate some possible future scenarios for Europe.European Monetary Union, financial crisis, Germany, neo-mercantilism

Real wages in the business cycle: an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics

The focus of this paper is the recurring tension between mainstream macroeconomics and observed facts in connection with the difficult task of providing explanations of the business cycle consistent both with the traditional theory of income distribution and with the empirical evidence concerning the co-movements of real wages and employment over the cycle. The attempts to reconcile facts and theory have led to the continuous introduction of specific and arguably ad hoc hypotheses, in contrast with the search for greater theoretical rigour claimed by the various streams of macroeconomic modelling subsequent to the neo-classical synthesis. In addition, the specific assumptions introduced in the models, or their implications, are in turn often contradicted or, at best, not confirmed by subsequent empirical research. It is suggested in the conclusions that the difficulty of keeping together in a simple and consistent framework theory and facts reflects the flawed theoretical foundations of mainstream theory

Real wages in the business cycle: an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics

The focus of this paper is the recurring tension between mainstream macroeconomics and observed facts in connection with the difficult task of providing explanations of the business cycle consistent both with the traditional theory of income distribution and with the empirical evidence concerning the co-movements of real wages and employment over the cycle. The attempts to reconcile facts and theory have led to the continuous introduction of specific and arguably ad hoc hypotheses, in contrast with the search for greater theoretical rigour claimed by the various streams of macroeconomic modelling subsequent to the neo-classical synthesis. In addition, the specific assumptions introduced in the models, or their implications, are in turn often contradicted or, at best, not confirmed by subsequent empirical research. It is suggested in the conclusions that the difficulty of keeping together in a simple and consistent framework theory and facts reflects the flawed theoretical foundations of mainstream theory

On the Non-Inflationary Effects of Long-Term Unemployment Reductions

Contrary to the New Keynesian paradigm, long-term unemployment can be reversed without a significant uptick in inflation The paper critically examines the New Keynesian explanation of hysteresis based on the role of long-term unemployment. We first examine its analytical foundations, according to which rehiring long-term unemployed individuals would not be possible without accelerating inflation. Then we empirically assess its validity along two lines of inquiry. First, we investigate the reversibility of long-term unemployment. Then we focus on episodes of sustained long-term unemployment reductions to check for inflationary effects. Specifically, in a panel of 25 OECD countries (from 1983 to 2016), we verify by means of local projections whether they are associated with inflationary pressures in a subsequent five-year window. Two main results emerge: i) the evolution of the long-term unemployment rate is almost completely synchronous with the dynamics of the total unemployment rate, both during downswings and upswings; ii) we do not find indications of accelerating or persistently higher inflation during and after episodes of strong declines in the long- term unemployment rate, even when they occur in country-years in which the actual unemployment rate was estimated to be below a conventionally estimated Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Our results call into question the role of long-term unemployment in causing hysteresis and provide support to policy implications that are at variance with the conventional wisdom that regards the NAIRU as an inflationary barrier