Operationalizing Resilience Against Natural Disaster Risk: Opportunities, Barriers, and a Way Forward

The risks from floods have been rising globally due to increasing population, urbanization and economic development in hazard prone areas. The number of flood disasters throughout the world nearly doubled in the decade from 2000-2009 compared to the previous decade. There have been more flood disasters in the last four years (2010-2013) than in the whole decade of the 1980's. Evidence indicates that climate change-induced sea level rise, storm surge and more intense flooding will reinforce this trend unless risk management measures are undertaken immediately to well manage future losses and make communities more resilient to flooding. It is widely recognized that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between disaster risk and development: disasters impact development and development impacts disasters. Evidence shows that repeated disasters undermine long-term socio-economic objectives. This is particularly evident in low income countries where disasters can impede the development process. The extensive time required to recover from damage, loss of capacity with which to rebuild and systemic risk negatively affect livelihoods in these countries, in the extreme case trapping people in poverty. In developed countries, recent floods triggered massive economic losses and undermined long-term competitiveness. The impact of disasters is felt most acutely by households and communities. In both developing and developed countries alike, local level studies strongly indicate that the poor suffer disproportionately due to the lack of financial and social safety nets, and institutional representation. Development can affect disaster risk via three main channels: by (1) increasing the physical assets and people exposed to the risk, (2) increasing the capacity to reduce the risk, respond to the risk and recover from the risk and (3) increasing or decreasing the vulnerability based on specific development strategies chosen. We identify this interaction as a key research gap; taking account of and balancing development opportunities with disaster risk will require a paradigm shift in the way we think about and do both development and disaster risk management

The potential of crowdsourcing and mobile technology to support flood disaster risk reduction

The last decade has seen a rise in citizen science and crowdsourcing for carrying out a variety of tasks across a number of different fields, most notably the collection of data such as the identification of species (e.g. eBird and iNaturalist) and the classification of images (e.g. Galaxy Zoo and Geo-Wiki). Combining human computing with the proliferation of mobile technology has resulted in vast amounts of geo-located data that have considerable value across multiple domains including flood disaster risk reduction. Crowdsourcing technologies, in the form of online mapping, are now being utilized to great effect in post-disaster mapping and relief efforts, e.g. the activities of Humanitarian OpenStreetMap, complementing official channels of relief (e.g. Haiti, Nepal and New York). Disaster event monitoring efforts have been further complemented with the use of social media (e.g. twitter for earthquakes, flood monitoring, and fire detection). Much of the activity in this area has focused on ex-post emergency management while there is considerable potential for utilizing crowdsourcing and mobile technology for vulnerability assessment, early warning and to bolster resilience to flood events. This paper examines the use of crowdsourcing and mobile technology for measuring and monitoring flood hazards, exposure to floods, and vulnerability, drawing upon examples from the literature and ongoing projects on flooding and food security at IIASA

Technologies to Support Community Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and analysis, direct input from communities and citizens across the globe may also be used to monitor, validate, and reduce flood risk. New technologies have already been proven to effectively aid in humanitarian response and recovery. However, while ex-ante technologies are increasingly utilized to collect information on exposure, efforts directed towards assessing and monitoring hazards and vulnerability remain limited. Hazard model validation and social vulnerability assessment deserve particular attention. New technologies offer great potential for engaging people and facilitating the coproduction of knowledge

The Value of Global Earth Observations

Humankind has never been so populous, technically equipped, and economically and culturally integrated as it is today. In the twenty-first century, societies are confronted with a multitude of challenges in their efforts to manage the Earth system

Evidence for Urban–Rural Disparity in Temperature–Mortality Relationships in Zhejiang Province, China

Background: Temperature-related mortality risks have mostly been studied in urban areas, with limited evidence for urban–rural differences in the temperature impacts on health outcomes. Objectives: We investigated whether temperature–mortality relationships vary between urban and rural counties in China. Methods: We collected daily data on 1 km gridded temperature and mortality in 89 counties of Zhejiang Province, China, for 2009 and 2015. We first performed a two-stage analysis to estimate the temperature effects on mortality in urban and rural counties. Second, we performed meta-regression to investigate the modifying effect of the urbanization level. Stratified analyses were performed by all-cause, nonaccidental (stratified by age and sex), cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We also calculated the fraction of mortality and number of deaths attributable to nonoptimum temperatures associated with both cold and heat components. The potential sources of the urban–rural differences were explored using meta-regression with county-level characteristics. Results: Increased mortality risks were associated with low and high temperatures in both rural and urban areas, but rural counties had higher relative risks (RRs), attributable fractions of mortality, and attributable death counts than urban counties. The urban–rural disparity was apparent for cold (first percentile relative to minimum mortality temperature), with an RR of 1.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32, 1.62] associated with all-cause mortality for urban counties, and 1.98 (95% CI: 1.87, 2.10) for rural counties. Among the potential sources of the urban–rural disparity are age structure, education, GDP, health care services, air conditioners, and occupation types. Conclusions: Rural residents are more sensitive to both cold and hot temperatures than urban residents in Zhejiang Province, China, particularly the elderly. The findings suggest past studies using exposure–response functions derived from urban areas may underestimate the mortality burden for the population as a whole. The public health agencies aimed at controlling temperature-related mortality should develop area-specific strategies, such as to reduce the urban–rural gaps in access to health care and awareness of risk prevention. Future projections on climate health impacts should consider the urban–rural disparity in mortality risks

Russia’s Legal Transitions: Marxist Theory, Neoclassical Economics and the Rule of Law

We review the role of economic theory in shaping the process of legal change in Russia during the two transitions it experienced during the course of the twentieth century: the transition to a socialist economy organised along the lines of state ownership of the means of production in the 1920s, and the transition to a market economy which occurred after the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. Despite differences in methodology and in policy implications, Marxist theory, dominant in the 1920s, and neoclassical economics, dominant in the 1990s, offered a similarly reductive account of law as subservient to wider economic forces. In both cases, the subordinate place accorded to law undermined the transition process. Although path dependence and history are frequently invoked to explain the limited development of the rule of law in Russia during the 1990s, policy choices driven by a deterministic conception of law and economics also played a role.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40803-015-0012-