Factors affecting the survival of patients with oesophageal carcinoma under radiotherapy in the north of Iran

Factors relevant to the survival of patients with oesophageal cancer under radiotherapy have been studied in northern Iran where its incidence is high. We conducted an analytical study using a historical cohort and information from the medical charts of patients with oesophageal cancer. Out of 523 patients referred to the Shahid Rajaii radiotherapy centre in Babolsar from 1992 to 1996, we followed 230 patients for whom an address was available in 1998. The frequency of prognostic factors among those not contacted was very similar to those included in the study. The data were analysed using survival analysis by the nonparametric method of Kaplan Meier and the Cox regression model to determine risk ratios (RR) of prognostic factors. Survival rates were 42% at 1 year, 21% at 2 years, and 8% at 5 years after diagnosis. Patients aged 50–64 were found to have poorer survival compared with those less than 50 (RR = 1.73, P = 0.03); the risk ratio for ages f = 65 was 1.88 (P = 0.03). Females had significantly better survival than males (RR = 0.71, P = 0.02). For each 100 rads dose of radiotherapy, the risk ratio was significantly decreased by 1% (RR = 0.99, P = 0.05); for each session of radiotherapy, the risk ratio was significantly decreased by 4% (RR = 0.96, P = 0.0001); for each square centimetre size of surface under radiotherapy, the risk ratio significantly increased (RR = 1.002, P = 0.04). We did not observe a significant difference on survival by histology, anatomical location of tumours, or type of treatment (P > 0.05). Prognosis is extremely poor. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co