Recurrence rates for SIDS - the importance of risk stratification

Objective: To investigate the importance of stratification by risk factors in computing the probability of a second SIDS in a family. Design: Simulation Study Background: The fact that a baby dies suddenly and unexpectedly means that there is a raised probability that the baby’s family have risk factors associated with Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). Thus one cannot consider the risk of a subsequent death to be that of the general population. The Confidential Enquiry into Stillbirths and Deaths in Infancy (CESDI)6 identified three major social risk factors: smoking, age1, and unemployed/unwaged as major risk factors. It gave estimates of risk for families with different numbers of these risk factors. We investigate whether it is reasonable to assume that, conditional on these risk factors, the risk of a second event is independent of the risk of the first and as a consequence one can square the risks to get the risk of two SIDS in a family. We have used CESDI data to estimate the probability of a second SID in a family under different plausible scenarios of the prevalence of the risk factors. We have applied the model to make predictions in the Care of Next Infant (CONI) study7. Results: The model gave plausible predictions. The CONI study observed 18 second SIDS. Our model predicted 14 (95% prediction interval 7 to 21). Conclusion: When considering the risk of a subsequent SIDS in a family one should always take into account the known risk factors. If all risks have been identified, then conditional on these risks, the risk of two events is the product of the individual risks However for a given family we cannot quantify the magnitude of the increased risk because of other possible risk factors not accounted for in the model

Defining Landscape Resistance Values in Least-Cost Connectivity Models for the Invasive Grey Squirrel: A Comparison of Approaches Using Expert-Opinion and Habitat Suitability Modelling

Least-cost models are widely used to study the functional connectivity of habitat within a varied landscape matrix. A critical step in the process is identifying resistance values for each land cover based upon the facilitating or impeding impact on species movement. Ideally resistance values would be parameterised with empirical data, but due to a shortage of such information, expert-opinion is often used. However, the use of expert-opinion is seen as subjective, human-centric and unreliable. This study derived resistance values from grey squirrel habitat suitability models (HSM) in order to compare the utility and validity of this approach with more traditional, expert-led methods. Models were built and tested with MaxEnt, using squirrel presence records and a categorical land cover map for Cumbria, UK. Predictions on the likelihood of squirrel occurrence within each land cover type were inverted, providing resistance values which were used to parameterise a leastcost model. The resulting habitat networks were measured and compared to those derived from a least-cost model built with previously collated information from experts. The expert-derived and HSM-inferred least-cost networks differ in precision. The HSM-informed networks were smaller and more fragmented because of the higher resistance values attributed to most habitats. These results are discussed in relation to the applicability of both approaches for conservation and management objectives, providing guidance to researchers and practitioners attempting to apply and interpret a leastcost approach to mapping ecological networks.This project was funded by the Forestry Commission GB and the National School of Forestry at the University of Cumbria. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

The unrestricted Skyrme-tensor time-dependent Hartree-Fock and its application to the nuclear response from spherical to triaxial nuclei

The nuclear time-dependent Hartree-Fock model formulated in the three-dimensional space,based on the full Skyrme energy density functional and complemented with the tensor force,is presented for the first time. Full self-consistency is achieved by the model. The application to the isovector giant dipole resonance is discussed in the linear limit, ranging from spherical nuclei (16O, 120Sn) to systems displaying axial or triaxial deformation (24Mg, 28Si, 178Os, 190W, 238U). Particular attention is paid to the spin-dependent terms from the central sector of the functional, recently included together with the tensor. They turn out to be capable of producing a qualitative change on the strength distribution in this channel. The effect on the deformation properties is also discussed. The quantitative effects on the linear response are small and, overall, the giant dipole energy remains unaffected. Calculations are compared to predictions from the (quasi)-particle random phase approximation and experimental data where available, finding good agreement

Density distributions of superheavy nuclei

We employed the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model to investigate the density distributions and their dependence on nuclear shapes and isospins in the superheavy mass region. Different Skyrme forces were used for the calculations with a special comparison to the experimental data in $^{208}$Pb. The ground-state deformations, nuclear radii, neutron skin thicknesses and $\alpha$-decay energies were also calculated. Density distributions were discussed with the calculations of single-particle wavefunctions and shell fillings. Calculations show that deformations have considerable effects on the density distributions, with a detailed discussion on the $^{292}$120 nucleus. Earlier predictions of remarkably low central density are not supported when deformation is allowed for.Comment: 7 pages, 10 figure

Using GPS telemetry to validate least-cost modeling of gray squirrel ( Sciurus carolinensis) movement within a fragmented landscape

In Britain, the population of native red squirrels Sciurus vulgaris has suffered population declines and local extinctions. Interspecific resource competition and disease spread by the invasive gray squirrel Sciurus carolinensis are the main factors behind the decline. Gray squirrels have adapted to the British landscape so efficiently that they are widely distributed. Knowledge on how gray squirrels are using the landscape matrix and being able to predict their movements will aid management. This study is the first to use global positioning system (GPS) collars on wild gray squirrels to accurately record movements and land cover use within the landscape matrix. This data were used to validate Geographical Information System (GIS) least-cost model predictions of movements and provided much needed information on gray squirrel movement pathways and network use. Buffered least-cost paths and least-cost corridors provide predictions of the most probable movements through the landscape and are seen to perform better than the more expansive least-cost networks which include all possible movements. Applying the knowledge and methodologies gained to current gray squirrel expansion areas, such as Scotland and in Italy, will aid in the prediction of potential movement areas and therefore management of the invasive gray squirrel. The methodologies presented in this study could potentially be used in any landscape and on numerous species

Contribution of brown dwarfs and white dwarfs to recent microlensing observations and to the halo mass budget

We examine the recent results of the MACHO collaboration towards the Large Magellanic Cloud (Alcock et al. 1996) in terms of a halo brown dwarf or white dwarf population. The possibility for most of the microlensing events to be due to brown dwarfs is totally excluded by large-scale kinematic properties. The white dwarf scenario is examined in details in the context of the most recent white dwarf cooling theory (Segretain et al. 1994) which includes explicitely the extra source of energy due to carbon-oxygen differentiation at crystallization, and the subsequent Debye cooling. We show that the observational constraints arising from the luminosity function of high-velocity white dwarfs in the solar neighborhood and from the recent HST deep field counts are consistent with a white dwarf contribution to the halo missing mass as large as 50 %, provided i) an IMF strongly peaked around 1.7 Msol and ii) a halo age older than 18 Gyr.Comment: 14 pages, 2 Postscript figures, to be published in Astrophysical Journal Letters, minor revision in tex

Spin-Excitation Mechanisms in Skyrme-Force Time-Dependent Hartree-Fock

We investigate the role of odd-odd (with respect to time inversion) couplings in the Skyrme force on collisions of light nuclei, employing a fully three-dimensional numerical treatment without any symmetry restrictions and with modern Skyrme functionals. We demonstrate the necessity of these couplings to suppress spurious spin excitations owing to the spin-orbit force in free translational motion of a nucleus but show that in a collision situation there is a strong spin excitation even in spin-saturated systems which persists in the departing fragments. The energy loss is considerably increased by the odd-odd terms

Patient reactions to a web-based cardiovascular risk calculator in type 2 diabetes: a qualitative study in primary care.

Use of risk calculators for specific diseases is increasing, with an underlying assumption that they promote risk reduction as users become better informed and motivated to take preventive action. Empirical data to support this are, however, sparse and contradictory