Demographic components of philopatry and nest-site fidelity of Pacific black brant

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 1996I investigated demographic components of nest-site fidelity and philopatry of Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). My analyses included data I collected during summer 1990-1993, and also incorporated data obtained between 1986-1989. My studies of nest-site fidelity were limited to the Tutakoke River colony, Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska. Studies of philopatry and dispersal among colonies included observations at 7 breeding colonies of brant marked with tarsal tags (n = 20,147). I observed strong evidence that philopatry of brant was female biased. Probability of breeding philopatry, which was estimated with multi-state modeling techniques, was high (>0.9) and dispersal of adults among breeding colonies was rare. I developed an ad hoc estimator for natal philopatry that was unbiased by a confounding of homing, survival, and detection probabilities. Probability of natal philopatry for females was both age and density dependent. The density-dependent decline in natal philopatry may result from increased rate of permanent nonbreeding or increased probability of dispersal. Observed probability of natal philopatry for males was approximately equivalent to the relative size of their natal colony, suggesting that males pair at random with females from other colonies. Gene flow among populations of brant is largely male mediated, and I predict populations of brant will exhibit distinct mitochondrial DNAs if populations have been reproductively isolated for an adequate period of time. Probability of fidelity to previous nest sites for adults was high (>0.7). Probability of nest-site fidelity was affected by previous nesting success, age, and availability of nest sites. Phenology of nesting, nest-site selection, and clutch size of brant was affected by spring snowmelt. Dispersal of brant from traditional nest sites in years with late springs may represent a tradeoff between site fidelity and timing of nest initiation. Movement of young females from natal nest sites was a mechanism for colony expansion. I observed little evidence that site fidelity was advantageous, and concluded that quality of individual bird, environmental conditions, and demographic status may be more important determinants of breeding performance

Externally heated protostellar cores in the Ophiuchus star-forming region

We present APEX 218 GHz observations of molecular emission in a complete sample of embedded protostars in the Ophiuchus star-forming region. To study the physical properties of the cores, we calculate H$_2$CO and c-C$_3$H$_2$ rotational temperatures, both of which are good tracers of the kinetic temperature of the molecular gas. We find that the H$_2$CO temperatures range between 16 K and 124 K, with the highest H$_2$CO temperatures toward the hot corino source IRAS 16293-2422 (69-124 K) and the sources in the $\rho$ Oph A cloud (23-49 K) located close to the luminous Herbig Be star S 1, which externally irradiates the $\rho$ Oph A cores. On the other hand, the c-C$_3$H$_2$ rotational temperature is consistently low (7-17 K) in all sources. Our results indicate that the c-C$_3$H$_2$ emission is primarily tracing more shielded parts of the envelope whereas the H$_2$CO emission (at the angular scale of the APEX beam; 3600 au in Ophiuchus) mainly traces the outer irradiated envelopes, apart from in IRAS 16293-2422, where the hot corino emission dominates. In some sources, a secondary velocity component is also seen, possibly tracing the molecular outflow.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs

Deep Learning Mixture-of-Experts Approach for Cytotoxic Edema Assessment in Infants and Children

This paper presents a deep learning framework for image classification aimed at increasing predictive performance for Cytotoxic Edema (CE) diagnosis in infants and children. The proposed framework includes two 3D network architectures optimized to learn from two types of clinical MRI data , a trace Diffusion Weighted Image (DWI) and the calculated Apparent Diffusion Coefficient map (ADC). This work proposes a robust and novel solution based on volumetric analysis of 3D images (using pixels from time slices) and 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) models. While simple in architecture, the proposed framework shows significant quantitative results on the domain problem. We use a dataset curated from a Childrens Hospital Colorado (CHCO) patient registry to report a predictive performance F1 score of 0.91 at distinguishing CE patients from children with severe neurologic injury without CE. In addition, we perform analysis of our systems output to determine the association of CE with Abusive Head Trauma (AHT) , a type of traumatic brain injury (TBI) associated with abuse , and overall functional outcome and in hospital mortality of infants and young children. We used two clinical variables, AHT diagnosis and Functional Status Scale (FSS) score, to arrive at the conclusion that CE is highly correlated with overall outcome and that further study is needed to determine whether CE is a biomarker of AHT. With that, this paper introduces a simple yet powerful deep learning based solution for automated CE classification. This solution also enables an indepth analysis of progression of CE and its correlation to AHT and overall neurologic outcome, which in turn has the potential to empower experts to diagnose and mitigate AHT during early stages of a childs life.Comment: 7 figure

Convergence towards a European strategic culture? A constructivist framework for explaining changing norms.

The article contributes to the debate about the emergence of a European strategic culture to underpin a European Security and Defence Policy. Noting both conceptual and empirical weaknesses in the literature, the article disaggregates the concept of strategic culture and focuses on four types of norms concerning the means and ends for the use of force. The study argues that national strategic cultures are less resistant to change than commonly thought and that they have been subject to three types of learning pressures since 1989: changing threat perceptions, institutional socialization, and mediatized crisis learning. The combined effect of these mechanisms would be a process of convergence with regard to strategic norms prevalent in current EU countries. If the outlined hypotheses can be substantiated by further research the implications for ESDP are positive, especially if the EU acts cautiously in those cases which involve norms that are not yet sufficiently shared across countries

First aid for children's burns in the US and UK: An urgent call to establish and promote international standards

Introduction Appropriate first aid can reduce the morbidity of burns, however, there are considerable variations between international first aid recommendations. We aim to identify, and compare first aid practices in children who present to Emergency Departments (ED) with a burn. Methods A prospective cross-sectional study of 500 children (0–16 completed years) presenting with a burn to a paediatric ED in the UK (Cardiff) and the USA (Denver, Colorado), during 2015–2017. The proportion of children who had received some form of first aid and the quality of first aid were compared between cities. Results Children attending hospital with a burn in Cardiff were 1.47 times more likely (RR 1.47; CI 1.36, 1.58), to have had some form of first aid than those in Denver. Denver patients were 4.7 time more likely to use a dressing and twice as likely to apply ointment/gel/aloe vera than the Cardiff cohort. First aid consistent with local recommendations was only administered to 26% (128/500) of children in Cardiff and 6% (31/500) in Denver. Potentially harmful first aid e.g. application of food, oil, toothpaste, shampoo or ice was applied to 5% of children in Cardiff and 10% in Denver. Conclusion A low number of children received optimal burns first aid, with potentially harmful methods applied in a considerable proportion of cases. There is an urgent need for internationally agreed, evidence-based burn first aid recommendations

Clonal Hematopoiesis and Blood-Cancer Risk Inferred from Blood DNA Sequence

Background Cancers arise from multiple acquired mutations, which presumably occur over many years. Early stages in cancer development might be present years before cancers become clinically apparent. Methods We analyzed data from whole-exome sequencing of DNA in peripheral-blood cells from 12,380 persons, unselected for cancer or hematologic phenotypes. We identified somatic mutations on the basis of unusual allelic fractions. We used data from Swedish national patient registers to follow health outcomes for 2 to 7 years after DNA sampling. Results Clonal hematopoiesis with somatic mutations was observed in 10% of persons older than 65 years of age but in only 1% of those younger than 50 years of age. Detectable clonal expansions most frequently involved somatic mutations in three genes (DNMT3A, ASXL1, and TET2) that have previously been implicated in hematologic cancers. Clonal hematopoiesis was a strong risk factor for subsequent hematologic cancer (hazard ratio, 12.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.8 to 28.7). Approximately 42% of hematologic cancers in this cohort arose in persons who had clonality at the time of DNA sampling, more than 6 months before a first diagnosis of cancer. Analysis of bone marrow–biopsy specimens obtained from two patients at the time of diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia revealed that their cancers arose from the earlier clones. Conclusions Clonal hematopoiesis with somatic mutations is readily detected by means of DNA sequencing, is increasingly common as people age, and is associated with increased risks of hematologic cancer and death. A subset of the genes that are mutated in patients with myeloid cancers is frequently mutated in apparently healthy persons; these mutations may represent characteristic early events in the development of hematologic cancers. (Funded by the National Human Genome Research Institute and others.)National Human Genome Research Institute (U.S.) (Grant U54 HG003067)National Human Genome Research Institute (U.S.) (Grant R01 HG006855)Stanley Center for Psychiatric ResearchAlexander and Margaret Stewart TrustNational Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (Grant R01 MH 077139)National Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (Grant RC2 MH089905)Sylvan C. Herman Foundatio