Campaign effects on voter choice in the German election of 1990

'Anhand von Panel-Daten, die bei einer Umfrage in Deutschland während des Bundestagswahlkampfs 1990 erhoben wurden, entwickeln wir ein Modell zur Beurteilung der Wirkung des Wahlkampfes auf das individuelle Wahlverhalten und das Wahlergebnis. Unsere Ergebnisse entsprachen den Untersuchungen von Lazarsfeld et al. aus den 40er Jahren und der neueren amerikanischen Forschung. Wir fanden heraus, daß die Wirkung des Wahlkampfes auf deutsche Wähler vor allem in der Verstärkung früherer Präferenzen und der Aktivierung latenter Wahl-Dispositionen bestand, die auf grundlegenden individuellen Einstellungen wie Parteizugehörigkeit und Rechts-Links-Ideologie beruhen. Zugleich zeigt die Analyse, daß die Anzahl der Personen, die entgegen ihren Dispositionen und früheren Präferenzen ihre Stimme abgaben, annähernd 14 Prozent der Wählerschaft ausmacht. Davon war der Anteil der Pro-Regierungs-Entscheidungen überwältigend groß. Deshalb nehmen wir an, daß der Bundestagswahlkampf von 1990 den von der ursprünglichen Disposition der Wählerschaft aus gesehen gleichstarken Wettstreit in einen soliden Sieg der Regierungskoalition umwandelte. Die Ergebnisse werden hinsichtlich ihrer theoretischen und normativen Implikationen diskutiert.' (HSübers)'Using national survey panel data collected in Germany during the 1990 Bundestag election campaign, we develop a model to assess the effect of the campaign on individual votes and the election outcome. We find that the dominant effects of the campaign on German voters, as in the Lazarsfeld et al. studies from the 1940s and in more recent U.S. research, were the 'reinforcement' of earlier preferences and the 'activation' of latent vote dispositions based on fundamental individual attitudes such as party affiliation and left-right ideology. At the same time, the analysis shows that the number of campaign converts, those who vote against their dispositions and prior preferences, was approximately 14 percent of the electorate. The vote division among these individuals was overwhelmingly pro-government, suggesting that the 1990 German campaign altered a sufficient number of votes to turn what was an even contest, based on the electorate's initial political dispositions, into a solid government coalition victory. The results are discussed in terms of their theoretical as well as normative implications.' (authotr's abstract

Civic Education and Democratic Backsliding in the Wake of Kenya’s Post-2007 Election Violence

This article examines two unexplored questions concerning the impact of civic education programs in emerging democracies: (1) whether such programs have longer-terms effects and (2) whether civic education can be effective under conditions of democratic “backsliding.” We investigate these questions in the context of a large-scale civic education program in Kenya just before the disputed 2007 election that sparked a wave of ethnic clashes and brought the country to the brink of civil war. Analysis of a survey of 1,800 “treatment” and 1,800 “control” individuals shows that the program had significant long-term effects on variables related to civic competence and engagement, with less consistent effects on democratic values. We also find that participants who subsequently were affected by the violence were less likely to adopt negative beliefs about Kenya’s political system, less likely to support the use of ethnic or political violence, and more likely to forgive those responsible for the post-election violence

Using expression arrays for copy number detection: an example from E. coli.

BACKGROUND: The sequencing of many genomes and tiling arrays consisting of millions of DNA segments spanning entire genomes have made high-resolution copy number analysis possible. Microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization (array CGH) has enabled the high-resolution detection of DNA copy number aberrations. While many of the methods and algorithms developed for the analysis microarrays have focused on expression analysis, the same technology can be used to detect genetic alterations, using for example standard commercial Affymetrix arrays. Due to the nature of the resultant data, standard techniques for processing GeneChip expression experiments are inapplicable. RESULTS: We have developed a robust and flexible methodology for high-resolution analysis of DNA copy number of whole genomes, using Affymetrix high-density expression oligonucleotide microarrays. Copy number is obtained from fluorescence signals after processing with novel normalization, spatial artifact correction, data transformation and deletion/duplication detection. We applied our approach to identify deleted and amplified regions in E. coli mutants obtained after prolonged starvation. CONCLUSION: The availability of Affymetrix expression chips for a wide variety of organisms makes the proposed array CGH methodology useful more generally.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Wählerstimmen durch Wahlkämpfe? Eine Analyse der Bundestagswahl 1990

'Mit Paneldaten zur Bundestagswahl 1990 testen wir ein Modell, das entwickelt wurde, um Wahlkampfeffekte auf das individuelle Wahlverhalten und den Wahlausgang zu messen. Die dominanten Effekte im deutschen Wahlkampf sind einerseits die 'Verstärkung' von vorhandenen Präferenzen und andererseits die 'Aktivierung' latenter Wahldispositionen, die auf solch fundamentalen individuellen Eigenschaften wie Parteieneingang und Links-Rechts-Einschätzung basieren. Diese Befunde bestätigen die Lazarsfeld et. al. Studien der frühen vierziger Jahre und auch neuere Wahlstudien in den USA. Gleichzeitig zeigen die Analysen, daß immerhin 13 Prozent der Wähler im Laufe des Wahlkampfes 'konvertierten', d. h. anders als bei ihren ursprünglichen politischen Einstellungen und Wahlabsichten stimmten. Diese Verschiebung war zugunsten der Regierung und wohl dafür verantwortlich, daß ein anfängliches Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen in einem soliden Sieg der Regierungskoalition mündete.' (Autorenreferat)'Using national survey panel data collected in Germany during the 1990 federal election campaign, we develop a model to assess the effect of the campaign on individual votes and the election outcome. We find that dominant effects of the campaign on German voters were the 'reinforcement' of earlier preferences and the 'activation' of latent vote dispositions based on fundamental individual attitudes such as party affiliations and left-right ideology. At the same time, the analysis shows that the number of campaign converts, those who vote against their dispositions and prior preferences, was approximately 13 per cent of the electorate. The vote division among these individuals was overwhelmingly pro-government, suggesting that the 1990 German campaign altered a sufficient number of votes to turn what was an even contest, based on the electrorate's initial dispositions, into a solid government coalition victory. The results are discussed in terms of their theoretical as well as normative implications.' (author's abstract)

Civic Education and Democratic Backsliding in the Wake of Kenya’s Post-2007 Election Violence’.

This article examines two unexplored questions concerning the impact of civic education programs in emerging democracies: (1) whether such programs have longer-terms effects and (2) whether civic education can be effective under conditions of democratic ''backsliding.'' We investigate these questions in the context of a large-scale civic education program in Kenya just before the disputed 2007 election that sparked a wave of ethnic clashes and brought the country to the brink of civil war. Analysis of a survey of 1,800 ''treatment'' and 1,800 ''control'' individuals shows that the program had significant long-term effects on variables related to civic competence and engagement, with less consistent effects on democratic values. We also find that participants who subsequently were affected by the violence were less likely to adopt negative beliefs about Kenya's political system, less likely to support the use of ethnic or political violence, and more likely to forgive those responsible for the post-election violence

Genetic analysis and natural history of Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease CMTX1 due to GJB1 variants

Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMT) due to GJB1 variants (CMTX1) is the second most common form of CMT. It is an X-linked disorder characterised by progressive sensory and motor neuropathy with males affected more severely than females. Many reported GJB1 variants remain classified as variants of uncertain significance (VUS). In this large, international, multicentre study we prospectively collected demographic, clinical and genetic data on patients with CMT associated with GJB1 variants. Pathogenicity for each variant was defined using adapted American College of Medical Genetics criteria. Baseline and longitudinal analyses were conducted to study genotype-phenotype correlations, to calculate longitudinal change using the CMT Examination Score (CMTES), to compare males versus females, and pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants versus VUS. We present 387 patients from 295 families harbouring 154 variants in GJB1. Of these, 319 patients (82.4%) were deemed to have P/LP variants, 65 had VUS (16.8%) and 3 benign variants (0.8%; excluded from analysis); an increased proportion of patients with P/LP variants compared with using ClinVar's classification (74.6%). Male patients (166/319, 52.0%, P/LP only) were more severely affected at baseline. Baseline measures in patients with P/LP variants and VUS showed no significant differences, and regression analysis suggested the disease groups were near identical at baseline. Genotype-phenotype analysis suggested c.-17G>A produces the most severe phenotype of the five most common variants, and missense variants in the intracellular domain are less severe than other domains. Progression of disease was seen with increasing CMTES over time up to 8 years follow-up. Standard response mean (SRM), a measure of outcome responsiveness, peaked at 3 years with moderate responsiveness (change in CMTES (ΔCMTES) = 1.3 ± 2.6, p = 0.00016, SRM = 0.50). Males and females progressed similarly up to 8 years, but baseline regression analysis suggested that over a longer period, females progress more slowly. Progression was most pronounced for mild phenotypes (CMTES = 0-7; 3-year ΔCMTES = 2.3 ± 2.5, p = 0.001, SRM = 0.90). Enhanced variant interpretation has yielded an increased proportion of GJB1 variants classified as P/LP and will aid future variant interpretation in this gene. Baseline and longitudinal analysis of this large cohort of CMTX1 patients describes the natural history of the disease including the rate of progression; CMTES showed moderate responsiveness for the whole group at 3 years and higher responsiveness for the mild group at 3, 4 and 5 years. These results have implications for patient selection for upcoming clinical trials