Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions

We study a model where households are subject to uninsurable unemployment risk, price setting is subject to nominal rigidities, and the labor market is characterized by matching frictions and inflexible wages. Higher risk of job loss and worsening job finding prospects during unemployment depress goods demand because of a precautionary savings motive. Lower goods demand reduces job vacancies and the job finding rate producing motion an amplification mechanism due to endogenous countercyclical income risk. Amplification derives from the combination of incomplete financial markets and frictional goods and labor markets. The model can account for key features of the Great Recession

The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle

This paper shows that employment in cohorts of US firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry. Employment fluctuations of startups are procyclical, they persist into later years, and cohort-level employment variations are largely driven by differences in firm size, rather than the number of firms. An estimated general equilibrium firm dynamics model reveals that aggregate conditions at birth, rather than post-entry choices, drive the majority of cohort-level employment variation by affecting the share of startups with high growth potential. In the aggregate, changes in startup conditions result in large, slow-moving fluctuations in employment

Reviving american entrepreneurship? tax reform and business dynamism

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act slashed tax rates on business income and introduced immediate expensing of investments. Using a quantitative heterogeneous-firms model, we investigate the long-run effects of such tax reforms on firm dynamics. We find that they can substantially increase business dynamism, potentially offsetting the large decline in the U.S. startup rate observed over recent decades. This result is driven by indirect equilibrium forces: the tax reform stimulates firm entry, leading to an increase in labor demand and wages. Related to this is a large boost of the number of firms and of aggregate output, investment and employment

Home equity, mobility, and macroeconomic fluctuations

How does a fall in house prices affect real activity? This paper presents a tractable business cycle model in which a decline in house prices reduces geographical mobility, creating distortions in the labor market. This happens because homeowners face declines in their home equity levels, which makes it more difficult to provide the downpayment required for a new mortgage loan. Therefore, unemployed homeowners more often turn down job offers that would require them to move. The model can account for joint cyclical patterns in housing and labor market aggregates, and predicts a breakdown of the Beveridge curve in 2009. Counterfactual experiments are used to quantify the macroeconomic importance of the mobility channel during the Great Recession

The Geometry and Moduli of K3 Surfaces

These notes will give an introduction to the theory of K3 surfaces. We begin with some general results on K3 surfaces, including the construction of their moduli space and some of its properties. We then move on to focus on the theory of polarized K3 surfaces, studying their moduli, degenerations and the compactification problem. This theory is then further enhanced to a discussion of lattice polarized K3 surfaces, which provide a rich source of explicit examples, including a large class of lattice polarizations coming from elliptic fibrations. Finally, we conclude by discussing the ample and Kahler cones of K3 surfaces, and give some of their applications.Comment: 34 pages, 2 figures. (R. Laza, M. Schutt and N. Yui, eds.

The influence of smoking status on exhaled breath profiles in asthma and COPD patients

Breath analysis using eNose technology can be used to discriminate between asthma and COPD patients, but it remains unclear whether results are influenced by smoking status. We aim to study whether eNose can discriminate between ever- vs. never-smokers and smoking <24 vs. >24 h before the exhaled breath, and if smoking can be considered a confounder that influences eNose results. We performed a cross-sectional analysis in adults with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and healthy controls. Ever-smokers were defined as patients with current or past smoking habits. eNose measurements were performed by using the SpiroNose. The principal component (PC) described the eNose signals, and linear discriminant analysis determined if PCs classified ever-smokers vs. never-smokers and smoking <24 vs. >24 h. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) assessed the accuracy of the models. We selected 593 ever-smokers (167 smoked <24 h before measurement) and 303 never-smokers and measured the exhaled breath profiles of discriminated ever- and never-smokers (AUC: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.66-0.81), and no cigarette consumption <24h (AUC 0.54, 95% CI: 0.43-0.65). In healthy controls, the eNose did not discriminate between ever or never-smokers (AUC 0.54; 95% CI: 0.49-0.60) and recent cigarette consumption (AUC 0.60; 95% CI: 0.50-0.69). The eNose could distinguish between ever and neversmokers in asthma and COPD patients, but not recent smokers. Recent smoking is not a confounding factor of eNose breath profiles

Cost-Effectiveness of Internet-Based Self-Management Compared with Usual Care in Asthma

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of Internet-based self-management in patients with asthma has been shown, but its cost-effectiveness is unknown. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of Internet-based asthma self-management compared with usual care. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomized controlled trial, with 12 months follow-up. Patients were aged 18 to 50 year and had physician diagnosed asthma. The Internet-based self-management program involved weekly on-line monitoring of asthma control with self-treatment advice, remote Web communications, and Internet-based information. We determined quality adjusted life years (QALYs) as measured by the EuroQol-5D and costs for health care use and absenteeism. We performed a detailed cost price analysis for the primary intervention. QALYs did not statistically significantly differ between the Internet group and usual care: difference 0.024 (95% CI, -0.016 to 0.065). Costs of the Internet-based intervention were $254 (95$243 to $265) during the period of 1 year. From a societal perspective, the cost difference was$641 (95% CI, $-1957 to$3240). From a health care perspective, the cost difference was $37 (95$-874 to $950). At a willingness-to-pay of$50,000 per QALY, the probability that Internet-based self-management was cost-effective compared to usual care was 62% and 82% from a societal and health care perspective, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Internet-based self-management of asthma can be as effective as current asthma care and costs are similar. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN79864465

'Reaching the hard to reach' - lessons learned from the VCS (voluntary and community Sector). A qualitative study.

Background The notion 'hard to reach' is a contested and ambiguous term that is commonly used within the spheres of social care and health, especially in discourse around health and social inequalities. There is a need to address health inequalities and to engage in services the marginalized and socially excluded sectors of society. Methods This paper describes a pilot study involving interviews with representatives from eight Voluntary and Community Sector (VCS) organisations . The purpose of the study was to explore the notion of 'hard to reach' and perceptions of the barriers and facilitators to accessing services for 'hard to reach' groups from a voluntary and community sector perspective. Results The 'hard to reach' may include drug users, people living with HIV, people from sexual minority communities, asylum seekers, refugees, people from black and ethnic minority communities, and homeless people although defining the notion of the 'hard to reach' is not straight forward. It may be that certain groups resist engaging in treatment services and are deemed hard to reach by a particular service or from a societal stance. There are a number of potential barriers for people who may try and access services, including people having bad experiences in the past; location and opening times of services and how services are funded and managed. A number of areas of commonality are found in terms of how access to services for 'hard to reach' individuals and groups could be improved including: respectful treatment of service users, establishing trust with service users, offering service flexibility, partnership working with other organisations and harnessing service user involvement. Conclusions: If health services are to engage with groups that are deemed 'hard to reach' and marginalised from mainstream health services, the experiences and practices for engagement from within the VCS may serve as useful lessons for service improvement for statutory health services

Multiscale Variability and the Comparison of Ground and Satellite Radar Based Measures of Peatland Surface Motion for Peatland Monitoring

Peatland surface motion is highly diagnostic of peatland condition. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) can measure this at the landscape scale but requires ground validation. This necessitates upscaling from point to areal measures (80 × 90 m) but is hampered by a lack of data regarding the spatial variability of peat surface motion characteristics. Using a nested precise leveling approach within two areas of upland and low-lying blanket peatland within the Flow Country, Scotland, we examine the multiscale variability of peat surface motion. We then compare this with InSAR timeseries data. We find that peat surface motion varies at multiple scales within blanket peatland with decreasing dynamism with height above the water table e.g., hummocks < lawn < hollows. This trend is dependent upon a number of factors including ecohydrology, pool size/density, peat density, and slope. At the site scale motion can be grouped into central, marginal, and upland peatlands with each showing characteristic amplitude, peak timing, and response to climate events. Ground measurements which incorporate local variability show good comparability with satellite radar derived timeseries. However, current limitations of phase unwrapping in interferometry means that during an extreme drought/event InSAR readings can only qualitatively replicate peat movement in the most dynamic parts of the peatland e.g., pool systems, quaking bog

eNose analysis for early immunotherapy response monitoring in non-small cell lung cancer (vol 160, pg 36, 2021)

Pathogenesis and treatment of chronic pulmonary disease