Analysis of Oil Import and Exchange Rate in Nigeria

This research investigated the relationship between oil import and exchange rate in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of oil import on the rate of exchange in Nigeria. The study adopted co integration test to ascertain the long run relationship among the variables and vector error correction mechanism to determine the influence of LOIMP on EXR. The findings from the research indicated negative insignificant relationship between oil import and exchange rate in Nigeria in the short run and negative significant correlation in the long run. CUSUM test established that the model for the estimation was stable and impulse response asymptotic analysis revealed a negative impact of oil import on exchange rate in Nigeria. Causality test in this study showed one way causation from EXR to LOIMP. The study concludes that oil import has contributed negatively to developments in the Nigerian economy and the continued depreciation of the exchange rate. Based on the negative result of oil import on exchange rate in Nigeria, the study suggests that government should restructure, transform and legalize all the local (illegal) refineries operating in the Niger Delta region, in addition to making our four refineries operate in full capacity, so as to increase the productive capacity of the country,  meet up with the domestic demand for refined oil products in the country, discourage importation of refined products  and create employment which is one of the macroeconomic problem that kept the economy in its current state. These outfits should be licensed and structured into efficient production units, underlined by quality control. Government should sincerely initiate policy that will track government and private oil investors who deliberately frustrate refining of crude oil within Nigeria due to their selfish reasons. Policies towards diversification of Nigerian economy should be encouraged and imbibed, this will reduce overdependence on oil revenue and pressure on our local currency. Keywords: Exchange rate, Oil import, Impulse Response, Nigeri

Understanding the Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation in Nigeria

This study investigated the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Nigeria from 1980-2015. The model specified unemployment as a function of inflation, money supply % GDP, total government expenditure % of GDP. The statistical tests used were causality test, VECM test, co integration test. Based on the above tests carried out, the study found out that: (i) Inflation significantly impacted unemployment in Nigeria both in the long run and short run within the period under review.(ii) There exist a significant causal relationship among the variables in the model. Based on the results, the study recommended that government should use discretionary policy that would reduce unemployment by boosting government expenditure and maintain stability in money supply. Keywords: Unemployment, Inflation, Philip’s curve, Nigeria, Co integration, Granger causality

Prevalence of and risk factors for pulmonary tuberculosis among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infected Nigerian children

Introduction: Studies on the prevalence of and risk factors for tuberculosis (TB) among newly diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce and in Nigeria there is paucity of reported data. We determined the prevalence of and risk factors for pulmonary TB (PTB) in newly diagnosed (treatment-naïve) HIV-1 infected children at the pediatric HIV clinic of the Jos University Teaching Hospital (JUTH) in Nigeria. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 876 children, aged 2 months – 13 years, diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between July 2005 and December 2012, of which 286 were diagnosed with PTB at presentation after TB screening. The study site was the AIDS Prevention Initiative in Nigeria (APIN)-supported Pediatric HIV clinic at JUTH, Jos. A multivariate forward logistic regression modelling was used to identify risk factors for PTB-HIV co-infection. Results: The prevalence of PTB-HIV co-infection was 32% (286/876). Severe immunosuppression (SI) and World Health Organization (WHO) HIV clinical stage 3/4 were identified as independent risk factors for PTB-HIV co-infection in HIV infected children. The odds of PTB-HIV co-infection was increased two-fold in HIV-infected children with WHO clinical stage 3/4 compared to those with stage 1/2 (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.76 [1.31-2.37], p<0.001) and 1.5-fold in children with SI compared to those without SI (AOR 1.52 [1.12-2.06], p=0.007). Conclusion: In our setting, the burden of PTB was high among newly diagnosed HIV-infected children, and late WHO HIV clinical stage and severe immunosuppression were associated with PTB-HIV co-infection. Therefore there is a clear need to improve strategies for early diagnosis of both HIV and PTB to optimize clinical outcomes