An Overlapping Generations Model of Electoral Competition

This paper presents a dynamic model of political competition between two "parties" with different policy preferences. A "party" is explicitly modeled as a sequence of overlapping generations of candidates, all of whom face finite decision horizons. In general, there is a conflict between the interests of the individual policymakers and those of the "party" , which includes subsequent generations of candidates. We characterize this conflict and suggest a scheme of "intergenerational transfers" within the party which can resolve or mitigate this conflict. The paper shows how the "overlapping generations" model can be usefully applied to the political arena.

Factor Price Equalization in Heckscher-Ohlin Model

This paper investigates the likelihood of factor-price equalization under the simple assumptions of Heckscher-Ohlin Theory. Factor-price equalization is also directly related to whether countries specialize or not in the global market. A full-equilibrium in the world requires not only the equilibrium in the production side of the economy, but also the supply-demand equality in the world. However, once we obtain an equilibrium in the production side of the economy, it is always possible to define demand in a way to get supply-demand equality at any production side equilibrium amounts. Therefore, it is not possible to talk about factor-price equalization without specifying demand in the economy. Using L-P diagrams, the paper demonstrates how both factor-price equalization and non-equalization cases are possible when we look at only the production side of the economy. It is also demonstrated that the equilibrium possibilities will be much larger for factor-price equalization case if the number of commodities is more than the number of factors of production. However, the larger possibilities do not refer to different real equilibria, but only to indeterminacy in production. When demand is introduced in the economy and supply-demand equality constraints are respected, we see that factor-prices might or might not be equalized depending on factor endowments, production functions and demand. The paper demonstrates this by introducing a model with 2 countries, 2 factors of production, 3 goods and CES utility function. Finally, using comparative statistics on this simple model, the conditions under which the likelihood of factor-price equalization increases are determined.

Expectationally-driven market volatility: an experimental study

We study the existence and robustness of expectationally-driven price volatility in experimental overlapping generation economies. In the theoretical model under study there exist “pure sunspot” equilibria which can be “learned” if agents use some adaptive learning rules. Our data show the existence of expectationally-driven cycles, but only after subjects have been exposed to a sequence of real shocks and “learned” a real cycle. In this sense, we show evidence of path-dependent price volatility.Prices

Low-Temperature Sulfidic-Ice Microbial Communities, Borup Fiord Pass, Canadian High Arctic

A sulfur-dominated supraglacial spring system found at Borup Fiord Pass (BFP), Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada, is a unique sulfur-on-ice system expressed along the toe of a glacier. BFP has an intermittent flowing, subsurface-derived, glacial spring that creates a large white-yellow icing (aufeis) that extends down-valley. Over field campaigns in 2014, 2016, and 2017, numerous samples were collected and analyzed for both microbial community composition and aqueous geochemistry. Samples were collected from multiple site types: spring discharge fluid, aufeis (spring-derived ice), melt pools with sedimented cryoconite material, and mineral precipitate scrapings, to probe how microbial communities differed between site types in a dynamic freeze/thaw sulfur-rich system. Dissolved sulfate varied between 0.07 and 11.6 mM and was correlated with chloride concentrations, where the fluids were saltiest among spring fluids. The highest sulfate samples exhibited high dissolved sulfide values between 0.22 and 2.25 mM. 16S rRNA gene sequencing from melt pool and aufeis samples from the 2014 campaign were highly abundant in operational taxonomic units (OTUs) closely related to sulfur-oxidizing microorganisms (SOM; Sulfurimonas, Sulfurovum, and Sulfuricurvum). Subsequent sampling 2 weeks later had fewer SOMs and showed an increased abundance of the genus Flavobacterium. Desulfocapsa, an organism that specializes in the disproportionation of inorganic sulfur compounds was also found. Samples from 2016 and 2017 revealed that microorganisms present were highly similar in community composition to 2014 samples, primarily echoed by the continued presence of Flavobacterium sp. Results suggest that while there may be acute events where sulfur cycling organisms dominate, a basal community structure appears to dominate over time and site type. These results further enhance our knowledge of low-temperature sulfur systems on Earth, and help to guide the search for potential life on extraterrestrial worlds, such as Europa, where similar low-temperature sulfur-rich conditions may exist

A cross-sectional study of the prevalence of intensity of infection with Schistosoma japonicum in 50 irrigated and rain-fed villages in Samar Province, the Philippines

BACKGROUND: Few studies have described heterogeneity in Schistosoma japonicum infection intensity, and none were done in Philippines. The purpose of this report is to describe the village-to-village variation in the prevalence of two levels of infection intensity across 50 villages of Samar Province, the Philippines. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 25 rain-fed and 25 irrigated villages endemic for S. japonicum between August 2003 and November 2004. Villages were selected based on irrigation and farming criteria. A maximum of 35 eligible households were selected per village. Each participant was asked to provide stool samples on three consecutive days. All those who provided at least one stool sample were included in the analysis. A Bayesian three category outcome hierarchical cumulative logit regression model with adjustment for age, sex, occupation and measurement error of the Kato-Katz technique was used for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1427 households and 6917 individuals agreed to participate in the study. A total of 5624 (81.3%) participants provided at least one stool sample. The prevalences of those lightly and at least moderately infected varied from 0% (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 0%–3.1%) to 45.2% (95% BCI: 36.5%–53.9%) and 0% to 23.0% (95% BCI: 16.4%–31.2%) from village-to-village, respectively. Using the 0–7 year old group as a reference category, the highest odds ratio (OR) among males and females were that of being aged 17–40-year old (OR = 8.76; 95% BCI: 6.03–12.47) and 11–16-year old (OR = 8.59; 95% BCI: 4.74–14.28), respectively. People who did not work on a rice farm had a lower prevalence of infection than those working full time on a rice farm. The OR for irrigated villages compared to rain-fed villages was 1.41 (95% BCI: 0.50–3.21). DISCUSSION: We found very important village-to-village variation in prevalence of infection intensity. This variation is probably due to village-level variables other than that explained by a crude classification of villages into the irrigated and non-irrigated categories. We are planning to capture this spatial heterogeneity by updating our initial transmission dynamics model with the data reported here combined with 1-year post-treatment follow-up of study participants