Reconciling Findings on the Employment Effect of Disability Insurance

Over the last 25 years the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period of time employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline and raises questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role for DI expansion. In order to reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations.

Estimating the COGARCH(1,1) model - a first go

We suggest moment estimators for the parameters of a continuous time GARCH(1,1) process based on equally spaced observations. Using the fact that the increments of the COGARCH(1,1) process are ergodic, the resulting estimators are consistent. We investigate the quality of our estimators in a simulation study based on the compound Poisson driven COGARCH model. The estimated volatility with corresponding residual analysis is also presented

Design and Instantiation of IS2SAVE: An Information System to Predict the Influx of Spontaneous Volunteers at Operating Sites

Disaster managers are in charge of encountering natural disasters, yet, more often supported by citizens, so-called spontaneous volunteers. Their help has repeatedly been reported to be valuable for reducing disaster scales, regarding an increase in natural disasters occurrences with devastating effects. However, their characteristic to emerge in large groups has led to an unpredictable influx at operating sites from the perspective of disaster management. Finally, this led to problems such as congestions and blocked emergency routes, overcrowded operating sites and hampering officials in doing their work. To address this unpredictability, we apply a design science research approach to design and develop an information system to predict the influx of spontaneous volunteers at operating sites. We examine three design requirements and ten design principles, that we instantiate in a prototype. We finally validate our design theory empirically with experts, who positively highlight its perceived usefulness, conciseness, extendibility, explanatory power

Spatial Besov Regularity for Stochastic Partial Differential Equations on Lipschitz Domains

We use the scale of Besov spaces B^\alpha_{\tau,\tau}(O), \alpha>0, 1/\tau=\alpha/d+1/p, p fixed, to study the spatial regularity of the solutions of linear parabolic stochastic partial differential equations on bounded Lipschitz domains O\subset R^d. The Besov smoothness determines the order of convergence that can be achieved by nonlinear approximation schemes. The proofs are based on a combination of weighted Sobolev estimates and characterizations of Besov spaces by wavelet expansions.Comment: 32 pages, 3 figure

Three Essays on Social Security Disability Insurance.

This dissertation studies two central aspects of the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) program: economic factors influencing application decisions and the program's employment effect. The first chapter documents that most applications for DI occur after a job loss, and most of them report a health shock shortly beforehand. However, applicants typically do not apply immediately after having stopped working. Classifying non-employment episodes ending with DI application by beginning events and comparing their first and last month reveals notable differences in terms of job search, transfer recipiency, and other factors likely to influence applications decisions for DI. Building on these insights, the second chapter examines how Unemployment Insurance affects the decision to apply for DI. Theoretically, higher UI benefits may make it less necessary to obtain DI cash benefits, but they also facilitate applications by providing income support during the application process. Workers may also believe that UI take-up reduces the chances of a successful DI application. These predictions are tested by jointly estimating a hazard model of DI application and UI take-up. Results show that both UI take-up and a higher UI benefit level reduce the probability of applying for DI, which suggest that application decisions for DI are sensitive to short-term income flows. However, increasing UI benefits to reduce expenses for DI is not cost-effective because such a policy does not target workers at risk of applying for DI well enough. The third chapter, which is joint with John Bound and Timothy Waidmann, turns to the employment effect of the DI program. Between 1990 and 2005, enrollment for DI rapidly increased while employment rates for men with disabilities decreased, suggesting a strong employment effect. However, studies using denied applicants find a low to moderate employment effect of DI for the majority of applicants. In order to reconcile these findings, changes in total employment are decomposed into population and employment changes for non-participants, DI beneficiaries, and denied applicants. Results for men with disabilities show that the DI program played at most a moderate role in explaining the continuing employment decline, especially after the mid-1990s.Ph.D.EconomicsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/86329/1/lindners_1.pd

How Do People With Disabilities Cope While Waiting for Disability Insurance Benefits?

Disability Insurance waiting time varies from a few months to several years. We estimate the causal effect of longer waiting times on the use of five financial coping strategies. We find that SNAP benefits are the most responsive to longer waiting times. Moreover, while spousal employment is not responsive to longer wait times, spousal employment leads to longer waiting times, presumably because these applicants are more able to appeal. Together, these results suggest that coping strategies are used to both help applicants during the wait time and to extend the waiting time and increase their probability of success

Reconciling Findings on the Employment Effect of Disability Insurance

Over the last 25 years the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period of time employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline and raises questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role for DI expansion. In order to reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations.Social Security Administrationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78356/1/wp239.pd

Oregon Medicaid Expenditures after the 2014 Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion: Over-time Differences among New, Returning, and Continuously Insured Enrollees

Background—There is interest in assessing healthcare utilization and expenditures among new Medicaid enrollees after the 2014 Medicaid expansion. Recent studies have not differentiated between newly enrolled individuals and those returning after coverage gaps. Objectives—To assess healthcare expenditures among Medicaid enrollees in the 24 months after Oregon’s 2014 Medicaid expansions and examine whether expenditure patterns were different among the newly, returning, and continuously insured. Research Design—Retrospective cohort study using inverse-propensity weights to adjust for differences between groups. Subjects—Oregon adult Medicaid beneficiaries insured continuously from 2014-2015 who were either newly, returning, or continuously insured. Measures—Monthly expenditures for inpatient care, prescription drugs, total outpatient care, and subdivisions of outpatient care: emergency department (ED), dental, mental and behavioral health (MBH), primary care (PC), and specialist care. Results—After initial increases, newly and returning insured outpatient expenditures dropped below continuously insured. Expenditures for ED and dental services among the returning insured remained higher than among the newly insured. Newly insured MBH, PC, and specialist expenditures plateaued higher than returning insured. Prescription drug expenditures increased over time for all groups, with continuously insured highest and returning insured lowest. All groups had similar inpatient expenditures over 24 months post-Medicaid expansion. Conclusions—Our findings reveal that outpatient expenditures for new non-pregnant, non-dual-eligible Oregon Medicaid recipients stabilized over time after meeting pent-up demand, and prior insurance history affected the mix of services that individuals received. Policy evaluations should consider expenditures over at least 24 months and should account for enrollees’ prior insurance histories