Possible ranges of uncertain parameters of the model, and medians and interquartile ranges which resulted from the fitting process.

<p>Possible ranges of uncertain parameters of the model, and medians and interquartile ranges which resulted from the fitting process.</p

Sensitivity analysis of in-host parameters and their contribution to dynamic patterns: strong ++; marginal +; no contribution −.

<p>Sensitivity analysis of in-host parameters and their contribution to dynamic patterns: strong ++; marginal +; no contribution −.</p

Comparison of characteristic statistics between MT data and model prediction.

<p>Panel A: Day of the first maximum; Panel B: Day of the last maximum; Panel C: Parasite density at first maximum; Panel D: Parasite density at last maximum; None of these characteristic features where significantly different between model and MT data.</p

MOESM2 of Imported Plasmodium falciparum and locally transmitted Plasmodium vivax: cross-border malaria transmission scenario in northwestern Thailand

Additional file 2: Figure S2. Number of P. vivax (A) and P. falciparum (B) cases per month reported by Suan Oi malaria clinic

Deterministic pattern versus AV pattern.

<p>Panel A: Typical deterministic parasite density pattern (solid blue line) as predicted by the model. Also shown are innate immune effector <i>a</i> (blue filled curve) and adaptive immune effector <i>b</i> (purple filled curve). Panel B: Corresponding stochastically predicted mean parasite density (solid green line) and minimum/maximum envelope (purple fill) for the same deterministic solution (solid blue line) as shown in Panel A.</p

Typical MT-host with ‘odd-even’ envelope (purple shaded area) and its mean-curve (thick black line).

<p>Typical MT-host with ‘odd-even’ envelope (purple shaded area) and its mean-curve (thick black line).</p

Typical deterministic histories starting from an immunologically naïve state with an initial inoculum.

<p>Blue solid lines are parasitemia, the blue filled curve is immune effector <i>a</i>, the purple filled curve immune effector <i>b</i>, and the blue filled curve at the top are depleted resource cells. Deterministic histories can have single (Panel A), double (Panel B) and multiple (Panel C) wave patterns. However multiple waves patterns very rarely terminate and look very different from the MT data.</p

Schematic representation of the model.

<p>The population of uninfected red blood cells (<i>x</i>) provides the source for the infected population (<i>y</i>). Level I immune effector (<i>a</i>) is stimulated by y. Level II immune effector (<i>b</i>) is stimulated by <i>y</i> interacting with <i>a+b</i>. <i>M</i> represents the the number of merozoites, <i>S</i> represents an external source of inoculation.</p

Two typical single wave datasets.

<p>The solid gray lines are parasitemia. The curve with light gray fill is the model prediction.</p

Long term, multiple wave datasets calibrated with the present model.

<p>Panels A and B depict cases where the calibration resulted in a reasonable fit. The datasets are suitable because they exhibit an initial wave of parasitemia which contains the global maximum of the entire history. Panels C and D depict cases which are less suitable because they are missing a pronounced first wave of parasitemia. The blue solid lines are the original MT data, the dashed blue lines are the best fits to the first wave of parasitemia (1st calibration step), the purple shaded areas are the AV envelopes (2nd calibration step) with its mean curve (solid green line).</p