Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs

User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012–13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance

Characterizing healthcare utilization patterns in a Danish population with headache: results from the nationwide headache in Denmark (HINDER) panel

INTRODUCTION: Worldwide, far from all of those who would benefit make use of headache services, largely because of clinical, social, and political barriers to access. Identifying the factors contributing to low healthcare utilization can generate evidence to guide health policy. Our purpose here is better to characterize healthcare utilization patterns in Denmark. METHODS: The Headache in Denmark (HINDER) study is a nationwide cross-sectional survey of people with headache, conducted using SurveyXact (Rambøll Group A/S, Copenhagen). Healthcare utilization was assessed in a study sample generated by population screening and recruitment. Data collection occurred over two weeks, from September 23rd until October 4th, 2021. The questions enquired into disease characteristics, management, burden, medication intake and healthcare utilization. RESULTS: The number of participants included in the HINDER panel was 4,431, with 2,990 (67.5%: 2,522 [84.3%] female, 468 [15.7%] male; mean age 40.9 ± 11.6 years) completing the survey. One quarter of participants (27.7%) disagreed or strongly disagreed that they were able to manage their headache attacks. Most participants (81.7%) agreed or strongly agreed that their headache was a burden in their everyday lives. The most reported acute medications, by 87.2% of participants, were simple analgesics; of note, 8.6% reported using opioids for their headache. One quarter of participants (24.4%) had never consulted a medical doctor for their headache; one in six (16.5%: more than two thirds of the 24.4%) had never done so despite agreeing or strongly agreeing that their headache was a burden in their everyday lives. Two thirds (65.3%) of participants overall, and almost three quarters (72.4%) of those with weekly headache, had tried one or more complementary or alternative therapies outside conventional medical care. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are indicative of inadequate delivery of headache care in a country that provides free and universal coverage for all its residents. The implications are twofold. First, it is not sufficient merely to make services available: public education and increased awareness are necessary to encourage uptake by those who would benefit. Second, educational interventions in both pre- and postgraduate settings are necessary, but a prerequisite for these is a resetting of policy priorities, properly to reflect the very high population ill-health burden of headache

Schools, families, and social reproduction

Neoliberal educational discourse across the Global North is marked by an increasing homogeneity, but this masks significant socio-spatial differences in the enactment of policy. The authors focus on four facets of roll-out neoliberalism in English education policy that have expanded the function of primary schools, and redrawn the boundary between state and family responsibilities. Specifically, these are increased state support for: (1) working parenthood through provision of wraparound childcare; (2) parent-child relationships through school-led provision of parenting classes; (3) parental involvement in children’s learning; and (4) child development through schools’ fostering of extracurricular activities. The politics of policies that both enhance state responsibility for, and influence in, matters that were previously within the purview of families are complex. The collective impact of these developments has been both to reform how the work of daily and generational social reproduction is done, and to reshape the social reproduction of a classed and gendered society

One-quarter of individuals with weekly headache have never consulted a medical doctor: a Danish nationwide cross-sectional survey

INTRODUCTION: Large numbers of people with headache who would benefit are not reached by headache services. Among the causes are poor or disorganized provision of headache services, but reluctance to seek healthcare has frequently been identified as a significant barrier. We conducted a national survey of people with headache to assess the extent of this problem in Denmark, a country with well organized, highly resourced, and readily accessible services. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional survey of adults ≥ 18 years old in Denmark reporting at least one headache day in the last year. We used social media (Facebook) to publicize and drive a recruitment campaign. The survey investigated five items: (1) disease burden, (2) social life, (3) presenteeism, (4) social support, and (5) healthcare utilization. RESULTS: We included 6,567 respondents from May 2021 to June 2021; 70.2% were female, 39.8% male, and mean age was 43.2 ± 13.4 years. Of the respondents, 54.2% reported headache at least once a week, 33.4% reported headache a couple of times a month, and 12.4% reported headache a couple of times a year. Two-thirds of respondents (66.6%) reported that headache limited their social lives occasionally or frequently. Most respondents (86.8%) reported going to work or attending educational activities occasionally or more frequently even though they had headache. Half of the respondents (49.5%) experienced lack of understanding of their headaches from people occasionally or more frequently. Almost half of respondents (43.7%) had never consulted a medical doctor for their headache; even of those with weekly headache, more than a quarter (28.3%) had never done so in their lifetimes. CONCLUSIONS: Headache disorders continue to be a problem, even in a high-income country with free and easily accessible headache services. Further studies are needed to investigate and clarify why even people with the highest burden are hesitant to seek and make use of widely available headache services

Hospital-based headache care during the Covid-19 pandemic in Denmark and Norway

Abstract Background The Covid-19 pandemic is causing changes in delivery of medical care worldwide. It is not known how the management of headache patients was affected by the lockdown during the pandemic. The aim of the present study was to investigate how the initial phase of the Covid-19 pandemic affected the hospital management of headache in Denmark and Norway. Methods All neurological departments in Denmark ( n  = 14) and Norway ( n  = 18) were invited to a questionnaire survey. The study focused on the lockdown and all questions were answered in regard to the period between March 12th and April 15th, 2020. Results The responder rate was 91% (29/32). Of the neurological departments 86% changed their headache practice during the lockdown. The most common change was a shift to more telephone consultations (86%). Video consultations were offered by 45%. The number of new headache referrals decreased. Only 36% administered botulinum toxin A treatment according to usual schemes. Sixty% reported that fewer patients were admitted for in-hospital emergency diagnostics and treatment. Among departments conducting headache research 57% had to halt ongoing projects. Overall, 54% reported that the standard of care was worse for headache patients during the pandemic. Conclusion Hospital-based headache care and research was impacted in Denmark and Norway during the initial phase of the Covid-19-pandemic