Acute Delta Hepatitis in Italy spanning three decades (1991–2019): Evidence for the effectiveness of the hepatitis B vaccination campaign

Updated incidence data of acute Delta virus hepatitis (HDV) are lacking worldwide. Our aim was to evaluate incidence of and risk factors for acute HDV in Italy after the introduction of the compulsory vaccination against hepatitis B virus (HBV) in 1991. Data were obtained from the National Surveillance System of acute viral hepatitis (SEIEVA). Independent predictors of HDV were assessed by logistic-regression analysis. The incidence of acute HDV per 1-million population declined from 3.2 cases in 1987 to 0.04 in 2019, parallel to that of acute HBV per 100,000 from 10.0 to 0.39 cases during the same period. The median age of cases increased from 27 years in the decade 1991-1999 to 44 years in the decade 2010-2019 (p < .001). Over the same period, the male/female ratio decreased from 3.8 to 2.1, the proportion of coinfections increased from 55% to 75% (p = .003) and that of HBsAg positive acute hepatitis tested for by IgM anti-HDV linearly decreased from 50.1% to 34.1% (p < .001). People born abroad accounted for 24.6% of cases in 2004-2010 and 32.1% in 2011-2019. In the period 2010-2019, risky sexual behaviour (O.R. 4.2; 95%CI: 1.4-12.8) was the sole independent predictor of acute HDV; conversely intravenous drug use was no longer associated (O.R. 1.25; 95%CI: 0.15-10.22) with this. In conclusion, HBV vaccination was an effective measure to control acute HDV. Intravenous drug use is no longer an efficient mode of HDV spread. Testing for IgM-anti HDV is a grey area requiring alert. Acute HDV in foreigners should be monitored in the years to come

Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy

This paper shows the performance of an operational forecasting system, based on the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS), at 3 km horizontal resolution over southern Italy. The model is initialized from the 12 UTC operational analysis/forecasting cycle of the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The forecast is issued for the following three days. The performance is evaluated for a whole year for the surface parameters: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. The verification has been performed against SYNOP stations over southern Italy. A dense non-GTS network over Calabria is used for precipitation. Results show that RMSE is about 2-3 K for temperature, 12–16% for relative humidity, 2.0–2.8 m/s for wind speed, and 55–75° for wind direction, the performance varying with the season and with the forecasting time. The error increases between the first and third forecast days. The verification of the rainfall forecast shows that the model underestimates the area of the precipitation. The model output statistics (MOS) is applied to all parameters but precipitation. Results show that the MOS reduces the RMSE by 0–30%, depending on the forecasting time, on the season and on the meteorological parameter