Nineteenth-Century Tides in the Gulf of Maine and Implications for Secular Trends

Since the early twentieth century, the amplitudes of tidal constituents in the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy display clear secular trends that are among the largest anywhere observed for a regional body of water. The M2 amplitude at Eastport, Maine, increased at a rate of 14.1 ± 1.2 cm per century until it temporarily dropped during 1980–1990, apparently in response to changes in the wider North Atlantic. Annual tidal analyses indicate M2 reached an all‐time high amplitude last year (2018). Here we report new estimates of tides derived from nineteenth century water‐level measurements found in the U.S. National Archives. Results from Eastport, Portland, and Pulpit Harbor (tied to Bar Harbor) do not follow the twentieth century trends and indicate that the Gulf of Maine tide changes commenced sometime in the late nineteenth or early twentieth centuries, coincident with a transition to modern rates of sea‐level rise as observed at Boston and Portland. General agreement is that sea level rise alone is insufficient to cause the twentieth‐century tide changes. A role for ocean stratification is suggested by the long‐term warming of Gulf of Maine waters; archival water temperatures at Boston, Portland, and Eastport show increases of ∼2 °C since the 1880s. In addition, a changing seasonal dependence in M2 amplitudes is reflected in a changing seasonal dependence in water temperatures. The observations suggest that models seeking to reproduce Gulf of Maine tides must consider both sea level rise and long‐term changes in stratification

Suspended Sediment Fluxes at an Intertidal Flat: The Shifting Influence of Wave, Wind, Tidal, and Freshwater Forcing

Using in situ, continuous, high frequency (8–16 Hz) measurements of velocity, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and salinity, we investigate the factors affecting near-bed sediment flux during and after a meteorological event (cold front) on an intertidal flat in central San Francisco Bay. Hydrodynamic forcing occurs over many frequency bands including wind wave, ocean swell, seiching (500–1000 s), tidal, and infra-tidal frequencies, and varies greatly over the time scale of hours and days. Sediment fluxes occur primarily due to variations in flow and SSC at three different scales: residual (tidally averaged), tidal, and seiching. During the meteorological event, sediment fluxes are dominated by increases in tidally averaged SSC and flow. Runoff and wind-induced circulation contribute to an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged offshore flow, while waves and seiching motions from wind forcing cause an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged SSC. Sediment fluxes during calm periods are dominated by asymmetries in SSC over a tidal cycle. Freshwater forcing produces sharp salinity fronts which trap sediment and sweep by the sensors over short (∼30 min) time scales, and occur primarily during the flood. The resulting flood dominance in SSC is magnified or reversed by variations in wind forcing between the flood and ebb. Long-term records show that more than half of wind events (sustained speeds of greater than 5 m/s) occur for 3 h or less, suggesting that asymmetric wind forcing over a tidal cycle commonly occurs. Seiching associated with wind and its variation produces onshore sediment transport. Overall, the changing hydrodynamic and meteorological forcing influence sediment flux at both short (minutes) and long (days) time scales

Circulation, Sediment Concentration and Oxygen Depletion in the Tidal Ems River

We present measurements which show that the tidal Ems River in Germ any is extremely muddy over a 30 km + turbid zone, with fluid mud o f 1-2 m thickness covering the bed with suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) o f greater than 50 kg.m-3. Moreover, we show that these elevated SSC contain large quantities of organic material which deplete dissolved oxygen (DO) and produce summertime hypoxic zones. Using mathematical modeling, we develop simplified representations o f the estuary physics that reproduce the tidally-averaged circulation, SSC distribution, and oxygen depletion. These models show that SSC and oxygen concentrations are extremely sensitive to factors such as the mean depth, the mixing due to bottom friction (turbulence), and river flow. The observed increase in SSC and decrease in DO over the past 25 years is linked to the progressive deepening o f the tidal Em s from 4-5 m to 7 m between 1985- 1994, which moved the turbid zone upstream and decreased mixing. A review of scientific literature and data from the Em s suggests that hum an intervention (dyking,channel modification) combines with more gradual natural changes (sea level rise, climate variation) to continually modify sediment transport

Hydrodynamics and Morphology in the Ems/Dollard Estuary: Review of Models, Measurements, Scientific Literature, and the Effects of Changing Conditions

The Ems estuary has constantly changed over the past centuries both from man-made and natural influences. On the time scale of thousands of years, sea level rise has created the estuary and dynamically changed its boundaries. More recently, storm surges created the Dollard sub-basin in the 14th -15th centuries. Beginning in the 16th century, diking and reclamation of land has greatly altered the surface area of the Ems estuary, particularly in the Dollard. These natural and anthropogenic changes to the surface area of the Ems altered the flow patterns of water, the tidal characteristics, and the patterns of sediment deposition and erosion. Since 1945, reclamation of land has halted and the borders of the Ems estuary have changed little. Sea level rise has continued, and over the past 40 years the rate of increase in mean high water (MHW) along the German coast has accelerated to 40 cm/ century. Climate has varied on a decadal time scale due to long-term variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls precipitation, temperature, and the direction and magnitude of winds. Between 1960 and 1990 the most intense variation in the NAO index on record was observed. As a result the magnitude and frequency of storm surges increased, and mean wave heights increased at 1-2 cm/year. Currently the NAO index—and therefore storminess—is trending downwards. Over the longer term, global warming models predict an average temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius over the next century. A doubling of CO2 is expected to increase sea level by 30 cm, while the significant wind speed and wave heights in the North Sea are predicted to increase by 50 cm/s and 50 cm, respectively. Beginning in the late 1950’s, dredging activity and construction measures in harbours and shipping channels greatly altered the physical processes in the Ems. Deepening and streamlining the Ems River and shipping channel between the 1960s and 1990s decreased the hydraulic roughness and increased the tidal range in the river above Emden by as much as 1.5 m. At the turbidity maximum between Emden and Papenburg, concentrations of sediment are currently between 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than in the 1950’s, and fluid mud layers of several meters thickness occur. Other man-made changes, such as gas pipelines and the expansion of harbours, have often caused significant, but more localized, changes to the estuary. Between the mid 19th century and the 1970’s, dumping of organic waste—agricultural, industrial, and human—severely stressed the ecology of the Dollard sub-basin in particular. Since then the input of organic waste has been greatly reduced and anoxic conditions eliminated. However, the increase in turbidity at the turbidity maximum has caused depleted oxygen concentrations and periodic anoxia between Pogum and Papenburg during the summer months (personal communication, H. Juergens; Talke et al, 2005). The Ems is a relatively well studied estuary. Significant research projects have included the BOEDE project in the 1970’s --1980’s and the BOA and INTRAMUD projects in the 1990’s. These projects and other efforts have amassed a deep literature in the knowledge of tidal flats, fluid mud and flocculation, and mixing and dispersion processes. Projects currently underway are focusing on tidal dynamics and the affects of dredging in the high turbidity zone between Emden and Herbrum. Optimal management of the estuary is the goal of the HARBASINS project. Many analytical and numerical models have been applied to the Ems estuary to estimate tidal range, storm surges, wave fields, sediment transport, and mixing and dispersion processes. Analytical models to estimate mixing of scalars and sediment fluxes (Sediment Trend Analysis) have been extensively used. Numerical models such as WAQUA, unTRIM, MIKE3, Telemac 2D, SWAN, Delft 3D –Sed, and others have been applied to the Ems. While reasonable results are found for short term processes (order of days), long-term morphological change cannot yet be predicted. For the Ems catchement basin, the numerical models REGFLUD and FLUMAGIS are used to estimate nutrient inputs from diffuse sources and to visualize and evaluate the effects of land-use change

Compound Flooding in Convergent Estuaries: Insights from an Analytical Model

We investigate here the effects of geometric properties (channel depth and cross-sectional convergence length), storm surge characteristics, friction, and river flow on the spatial and temporal variability of compound flooding along an idealized, meso-tidal coastal-plain estuary. An analytical model is developed that includes exponentially convergent geometry, tidal forcing, constant river flow, and a representation of storm surge as a combination of two sinusoidal waves. Nonlinear bed friction is treated using Chebyshev polynomials and trigonometric functions, and a multisegment approach is used to increase accuracy. Model results show that river discharge increases the damping of surge amplitudes in an estuary, while increasing channel depth has the opposite effect. Sensitivity studies indicate that the impact of river flow on peak water level decreases as channel depth increases, while the influence of tide and surge increases in the landward portion of an estuary. Moreover, model results show less surge damping in deeper configurations and even amplification in some cases, while increased convergence length scale increases damping of surge waves with periods of 12–72 h. For every modeled scenario, there is a point where river discharge effects on water level outweigh tide/surge effects. As a channel is deepened, this cross-over point moves progressively upstream. Thus, channel deepening may alter flood risk spatially along an estuary and reduce the length of a river estuary, within which fluvial flooding is dominant

Estimating River Discharge Using Multiple-Tide Gauges Distributed Along a Channel

Reliable estimation of freshwater inflow to the ocean from large tidal rivers is vital for water resources management and climate analyses. Discharge gauging stations are typically located beyond the tidal intrusion reach, such that inputs and losses occurring closer to the ocean are not included. Here, we develop a method of estimating river discharge using multiple gauges and time-dependent tidal statistics determined via wavelet analysis. The Multiple-gauge Tidal Discharge Estimate (MTDE) method is developed using data from the Columbia River and Fraser River estuaries and calibrated against river discharge. Next, we evaluate the general applicability of MTDE by testing an idealized two-dimensional numerical model, with a convergent cross-sectional profile, for eighty-one cases in which nondimensional numbers for friction, river flow, and convergence length scale are varied. The simulations suggest that MTDE is applicable to a variety of tidal systems. Model results and data analyses together suggest that MTDE works best with at least three gauges: a reference station near the river mouth, and two upstream gauges that respond strongly to distinct portions of the observed range of flow. The balance between tidal damping and amplifying factors determines the favorable location of the gauges. Compared to previous studies, the MTDE method improves the time resolution of estimates (from 2.5 to \u3c 1 week) and is applicable to systems with mixed diurnal/semidiurnal tides. However, model results suggest that tide-induced residual flows such as the Stokes drift may still affect the accuracy of MTDE at seaward locations during periods of low river discharge

Increasing Storm Tides in New York Harbor, 1844–2013

Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72 ± 0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20–25%

The Effect of Tidal Asymmetry and Temporal Settling Lag on Sediment Trapping in Tidal Estuaries

Over decades and centuries, the mean depth of estuaries changes due to sea-level rise, land subsidence, infilling, and dredging projects. These processes produce changes in relative roughness (friction) and mixing, resulting in fundamental changes in the characteristics of the horizontal (velocity) and vertical tides (sea surface elevation) and the dynamics of sediment trapping. To investigate such changes, a 2DV model is developed. The model equations consist of the width-averaged shallow water equations and a sediment balance equation. Together with the condition of morphodynamic equilibrium, these equations are solved analytically by making a regular expansion of the various physical variables in a small parameter. Using these analytic solutions, we are able to gain insight into the fundamental physical processes resulting in sediment trapping in an estuary by studying various forcings separately. As a case study, we consider the Ems estuary. Between 1980 and 2005, successive deepening of the Ems estuary has significantly altered the tidal and sediment dynamics. The tidal range and the surface sediment concentration has increased and the position of the turbidity zone has shifted into the freshwater zone. The model is used to determine the causes of these historical changes. It is found that the increase of the tidal amplitude toward the end of the embayment is the combined effect of the deepening of the estuary and a 37% and 50% reduction in the vertical eddy viscosity and stress parameter, respectively. The physical mechanism resulting in the trapping of sediment, the number of trapping regions, and their sensitivity to grain size are explained by careful analysis of the various contributions of the residual sediment transport. It is found that sediment is trapped in the estuary by a delicate balance between the M 2 transport and the residual transport for fine sediment (\emphws=0.2 mm s −1) and the residual, M 2 and M 4 transports for coarser sediment (\emphws=2 mm s − 1). The upstream movement of the estuarine turbidity maximum into the freshwater zone in 2005 is mainly the result of changes in tidal asymmetry. Moreover, the difference between the sediment distribution for different grain sizes in the same year can be attributed to changes in the temporal settling lag

The Effect of Tidal Asymmetry and Temporal Settling Lag on Sediment Trapping in Tidal Estuaries

Over decades and centuries, the mean depth of estuaries changes due to sea-level rise, land subsidence, infilling, and dredging projects. These processes produce changes in relative roughness (friction) and mixing, resulting in fundamental changes in the characteristics of the horizontal (velocity) and vertical tides (sea surface elevation) and the dynamics of sediment trapping. To investigate such changes, a 2DV model is developed. The model equations consist of the width-averaged shallow water equations and a sediment balance equation. Together with the condition of morphodynamic equilibrium, these equations are solved analytically by making a regular expansion of the various physical variables in a small parameter. Using these analytic solutions, we are able to gain insight into the fundamental physical processes resulting in sediment trapping in an estuary by studying various forcings separately. As a case study, we consider the Ems estuary. Between 1980 and 2005, successive deepening of the Ems estuary has significantly altered the tidal and sediment dynamics. The tidal range and the surface sediment concentration has increased and the position of the turbidity zone has shifted into the freshwater zone. The model is used to determine the causes of these historical changes. It is found that the increase of the tidal amplitude toward the end of the embayment is the combined effect of the deepening of the estuary and a 37% and 50% reduction in the vertical eddy viscosity and stress parameter, respectively. The physical mechanism resulting in the trapping of sediment, the number of trapping regions, and their sensitivity to grain size are explained by careful analysis of the various contributions of the residual sediment transport. It is found that sediment is trapped in the estuary by a delicate balance between the M 2 transport and the residual transport for fine sediment (\emphws=0.2 mm s −1) and the residual, M 2 and M 4 transports for coarser sediment (\emphws=2 mm s − 1). The upstream movement of the estuarine turbidity maximum into the freshwater zone in 2005 is mainly the result of changes in tidal asymmetry. Moreover, the difference between the sediment distribution for different grain sizes in the same year can be attributed to changes in the temporal settling lag

Shallow‑Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System

Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 105 ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ( 54+5 −14 %, or ~ 50 × 105 ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was 63+2 −3 %, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of 5+16 −5 % and 4+14 −6 %, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less